UFC Fight Night Whittaker vs Vettori Picks and Predictions: Whittaker Reaps the Rebound

Marvin Vettori and Robert Whittaker were both cast aside by champ Israel Adesanya. As they scrap for supremacy over the rest of the division, Whittaker seems far more capable of forcing his foe out of his comfort zone, as our UFC betting picks explain.

Sep 3, 2022 • 08:35 ET • 4 min read

Robert Whittaker vs. Marvin Vettori is scheduled for three rounds in the middleweight division as the co-main event of September 3's UFC Fight Night card from the Accor Arena in Paris, France. This is a big-time fight that would main event any other UFC card, and these streaking middleweights are ready to show up for a brawl. 

Whittaker faces a stern test in Vettori, but he’s a moderate UFC odds favorite to get the job done at -215. Vettori faces Whittaker after a brief stop at light heavyweight, and the Italian submission specialist does so as a +185 underdog.

Let’s get into tonight's Whittaker vs. Vettori picks and predictions.

Whittaker vs Vettori fight odds

Whittaker vs Vettori method of victory odds

Method of Victory Robert Whittaker Marvin Vettori
To win by KO/TKO +500 +1,100
To win by Points -120 +350
To win by Submission +2,600 +900
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 31, 2022.

Whittaker vs Vettori picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Whittaker vs Vettori betting preview

Had Israel Adesanya not been around, this would be a title fight pitting two seemingly unstoppable middleweights at the top of their game. The lack of hardware doesn’t sully the importance of this fight, as it will crown the next-best fighter in the division. Better yet, the winner will be in prime position for a title shot should Adesanya fall to nemesis Alex Pereira this fall.

Whittaker is the division’s Swiss Army Knife, being that he has something for everything, and he gets the job done regardless of what style he’s facing. He’s an active striker with strong defense both standing and on the ground, and he’s proven to be equal parts complex and tough in recent bouts. Even in his most recent loss to Adesanya, Whittaker was getting the better of the champ in the second half of the fight, though falling short once more.

Covers UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

Vettori is a bulldozer and has cleaned up the division, leaving only the best to challenge him. He managed to overcome Paulo Costa’s size and unprofessionalism in a last-minute light heavyweight fight last October, putting him on track to this big fight with Whittaker. A busy striker up top and an absolute nightmare on the ground, Vettori also has a swagger about himself that feeds into his game plan.

These fighters are practical mirror images of each other from a statistical standpoint, with the only real advantage being in Whittaker’s favor when it comes to takedown defense (83% to 76%). Even so, Whittaker’s stronger performances against Adesanya have him coming out the consensus favorite here.

Whittaker can’t bully Vettori, but his smart pressure could put the Italian in a position where he can’t be as busy or out of position to shoot for a takedown. Because Whittaker will keep the fight standing, Vettori might have to rely on his striking more than he’s used to. Though these two have a lot of similarities on paper, the winner might not be a tough pick.

Whittaker vs Vettori tale of the tape

Robert Whittaker   Marvin Vettori
31 Age 28
5-foot-11 Height 6-foot-0
185 lbs Weight 185 lbs
73 inches Reach 74 inches
24-6 (9 KO) Record 18-5-1 (2 KO)

Whittaker vs Vettori UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

With Vettori potentially needing to fight a conventional striking match, this makes it all the easier to lean towards “The Reaper.” Whittaker has been fighting better opponents with varying styles, and the only amount of trouble he’s had in recent fights has been in competitive bouts versus Adesanya. Vettori could say the same, but Adesanya undressed him in a dominant decision win when they met at UFC 263.

Whittaker isn’t a one-note fighter like Costa or Kevin Holland. His striking is more refined and has demonstrated his ring generalship and intelligence with varying game plans and adjustments along the way. It’ll take someone with extraordinary power or skill to topple him right now, and Vettori has enough to compete, but not to win.

“The Italian Dream” can’t be written off, but this mega fight is a clear win in the making for Whittaker.

Prediction: Whittaker moneyline (-215 at DraftKings)

With neither fighter looking to have that much of an advantage over the other in offensive strengths, this fight figures to go the distance, and we expect Whittaker to come out the winner on the cards. This could be a close fight, but Whittaker’s refined talents should outpace Vettori and seal the win.

Taking Whittaker to win by decision at -115 might not be the most attractive prop, but it’s the best one we’re seeing. Take Whittaker on points as a safe bet, or use it as part of a parlay for the rest of the weekend’s fistic festivities.

Pick: Whittaker by decision (-115 at DraftKings)

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