Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian is scheduled for three rounds in the heavyweight division as a featured attraction at tonight's November 5 edition of UFC Fight Night from the Apex Center in Las Vegas.
Sherman is fighting for his UFC contract and cannot afford to take another loss after snapping a four-fight skid. Parisian is also in need of a win here to keep his fringe contender status intact.
UFC odds are favoring Sherman’s experience and power as a -130 favorite. Parisian needs to demonstrate his resolve and address his conditioning issues, though he is only a minor UFC betting underdog at +110.
Here are our picks and predictions for Sherman vs. Parisian at UFC Fight Night on November 5.
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Sherman vs Parisian fight odds
Sherman vs Parisian method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Chase Sherman | Josh Parisian |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +165 | +260 |
| To win by Points | +380 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +1,800 | +950 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 3, 2022.
Sherman vs Parisian picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sherman vs Parisian betting preview
Sherman recently saw his fortunes turn his way, snapping a long losing streak in a tough battle against Jared Vanderaa. Even so, Sherman is on the verge of finding something else to do with his time as he’s posted a 4-9 UFC record overall in two stints with the company. Parisian is out to go on his first winning streak in the UFC, having gone 3-2 in his last five fights.
“The Vanilla Gorilla” is hoping his heavy hands can help create some distance from his recent missteps and start his slow climb up the depleted heavyweight ranks. Though he’s far from being mixed up against the likes of Ciryl Gane or Francis Ngannou, Sherman can continue to be featured as a reliable striker who can throw bombs and score knockouts. That is, of course, if he can impress against Parisian.
Sherman lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and doesn’t bother with takedowns, with 15 of his wins coming by knockout and an average fight length of 10 minutes. When Sherman connects, he makes an impact. With a background in bare-knuckle boxing, he moves well and fires straight shots that saw him score four straight first-round stoppages before he went on his losing streak.
Parisian gets his work done on the ground, but he requires some consistency. He lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute and scores 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he has 13 finishes in 15 wins with an average fight time of 9:27. The Martinsburg native is capable on the ground, but he does seem to have a short gas tank as he tires quickly and has been finished four times.
Neither fighter defends well as Sherman absorbs just as many strikes as he lands and Parisian gets hit slightly more often. That means this hoss fight is going to come down to who can get their big shots off first. Sherman will be better if he can stay on his feet, but Parisian can just as easily take over should he wrestle the big man to the ground.
Sherman vs Parisian tale of the tape
| Chase Sherman | Josh Parisian | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| 253 lbs | Weight | 265 lbs |
| 78 inches | Reach | 79 inches |
| 16-10 (15 KO) | Record | 15-5 (11 KO) |
Sherman vs Parisian UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Chase Sherman ML
Sherman can take a solid shot and is often explosive enough out the gates, earning Parisian’s respect and dissuading takedown attempts. Though Parisian has to ideally close the gap and take the fight to the ground, he’s going to expend a lot of energy just to get his offense started. It won't be pretty, but we should see some big exchanges right away.
Normally, a fight will favor the grappler archetype the longer it goes, but we don’t feel that will be the case here. Parisian’s gas tank isn’t built for extended exchanges, so this fight might very well come down to who has more gas at the end of the first round. Because of that, it’s not difficult to see why the line is narrowly favoring Sherman.
I tend to agree. Unless Sherman gives up his back, his crisper boxing should wear Parisian out for a victory.
Prediction: Chase Sherman moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Sherman by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1
Sherman’s desperation and Parisian’s conditioning could be the ingredients for a short night at the office. When Sherman can put his punches together, he can do a lot of damage and put people out. Parisian can’t do much to avoid that, and his striking defense borders on “bad.”
That isn’t going to do him any favors, so we would be shocked if the fight went into the second round. The call here is that Sherman clips Parisian and follows up with a few haymakers to close up shop before the end of Round 1, netting a +330 score.
Pick: Chase Sherman to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+330 at DraftKings)
