Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos is the main event at UFC Fight Night, tonight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
This matchup was originally scheduled for UFC 280 before being pushed to this weekend. This is a key matchup in the women's strawweight division, and UFC odds opened with Rodriguez as a -160 favorite. Money has poured in on the fave, with Rodriguez now at -210 and Lemos coming back at +180.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos picks and predictions for November 5.
Jump to:
Rodriguez vs Lemos fight odds
Rodriguez vs Lemos method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Marina Rodriguez | Amanda Lemos |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +225 | +350 |
| To win by Points | +150 | +650 |
| To win by Submission | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on November 2, 2022.
Rodriguez vs Lemos picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Rodriguez vs Lemos betting preview
Marina Rodriguez is No. 3 in the strawweight rankings and has racked up four wins in a row, most recently defeating Yan Xiaonan by split decision in March.
Rodriguez is 6-1-2 in the octagon, with her only defeat coming by way of another split decision, this time against Carla Esparza in 2020. She's a high-volume striker with excellent Muay Thai ability and averages 5.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.07.
Amanda Lemos is the No. 7 ranked strawweight contender and is fresh off a second-round submission win against Michelle Waterson in July, earning a Performance of the Night bonus. That victory allowed her to bounce back from a first-round submission loss to Jessica Andrade and gave her six wins in her last seven fights.
The former Jungle Fight women's bantamweight champion is a striking specialist that softens her opponents with leg kicks and has rare finishing power for the division.
Rodriguez vs Lemos tale of the tape
| Marina Rodriguez | Amanda Lemos | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| 125lbs | Weight | 115lbs |
| 65 inches | Reach | 65 inches |
| 16-1 (6 KOs) | Record | 12-2 (7 KOs) |
Rodriguez vs Lemos UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Marina Rodriguez ML
Lemos fights with pressure and loves to throw with nasty intent, but Rodriguez is a bit more technical.
Rodriguez is also very crisp with her counter-striking, which should be very beneficial against an aggressive power-puncher in Lemos. When Lemos loads up on her power shots, Rodriguez should be able to disrupt her timing with straight punches.
Expect Rodriguez to use her distance management to out-volume Lemos at range, and when things get messy in the pocket, she can use her elbows to do damage in the clinch. Either way, I expect this fight to stay standing up, which should help hide Rodriguez's weakness on the mat and help her get the win.
Prediction: Marina Rodriguez moneyline (-210 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Marina Rodriguez by decision
Another factor to consider is that Lemos has never fought in more than a three-round bout, and she could see her cardio tested for 25 minutes. Matter of fact, in eight UFC bouts, Lemos has only gone past the second round twice.
Eight of Rodriguez's last nine fights have gone the distance, with two of those going 25 minutes. Rodriguez has proven herself in these five-round main events, and we know that she has both the durability to go the distance and the gas tank to keep up a steady output the entire way.
Back M-Rod to win by decision at plus money.
Pick: Marina Rodriguez by points (+150 at DraftKings)
