Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad 2 is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This will be an intriguing rematch between a pair of highly-ranked welterweights looking to earn a title shot. UFC betting lines opened with Luque as a -163 favorite before moving to -185, while Muhammad comes back at +150.
Here are our best free UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 picks and predictions for Saturday, April 16.
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Luque vs Muhammad fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Luque vs Muhammad method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Vicente Luque | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +250 | +1,000 |
| To win by Points | +380 | +250 |
| To win by Submission | +380 | +1,100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Luque vs Muhammad picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Luque vs Muhammad betting preview
Vicente "The Silent Assassin" Luque is the No. 5 ranked welterweight contender and is fresh off a first-round stoppage win against Michael Chiesa in August, which earned him his third-straight Performance of the Night bonus.
The 30-year-old knocked out Muhammad in the first round all the way back in 2016 before dropping his next fight against current No. 1 contender Leon Edwards. Since then, Luque has gone 10-1 with his lone defeat during that span coming by decision to former title challenger Stephen Thompson in a bout that earned Fight of the Night honors.
The Silent Assassin is a violent fighter who loves to mix it up and combines excellent technical boxing with ferocious power. He's also a very good grappler with a black belt in BJJ and eight career victories by way of submission.
Belal Muhammad is No. 6 in the welterweight rankings and has put together an impressive 10-1 record since that knockout by Luque six years ago.
He has reeled off six wins in a row, none more impressive than last December against Thompson, where he took down Wonderboy seven times and controlled him for almost 12 minutes of fight time.
The 33-year-old is at his best when he can grind down opponents with his wrestling, clinch-work, and cardio.
Luque vs Muhammad tale of the tape
| Vicente Luque | Belal Muhammad | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170lbs |
| 75.5 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 21-7-1 | Record | 20-3 |
Luque vs Muhammad UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Luque (-175 at Bet365)
Both of these fighters have grown so much since they fought six years ago so I don't want to put too much weight on that previous victory. That said, I have a tough time seeing Muhammad successfully implement his wrestling-heavy style in this one.
Sure, Muhammad is coming off a dominant win against Thompson, the last opponent Luque was defeated by, but there's a reason MMA math is flawed.
Muhammed used his wrestling to control Wonderboy but Luque is a far better defensive wrestler and is very dangerous off his back with high-end submission ability. When it comes to the stand-up, Luque will have a big advantage on the feet, with his superior technical striking, high-volume, and knockout power.
Best bet: Luque inside the distance (+110 at DraftKings)
Muhammed might be able to lay on Luque for a round or two but with this main event scheduled for 25 minutes, I don't see him being able to drag this fight the distance.
Luque is a finisher with 13 of his 14 wins inside the octagon coming by way of stoppage. Whether that comes by KO/TKO or submission, I expect Luque to end this one before the final bell.
