Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles is the co-main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This should be an entertaining tilt between an MMA legend in Guida and an up-and-coming lightweight in Puelles. Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight with UFC odds betting lines currently having this matchup as a pick'em.
Here are our best free Guida vs. Puelles picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night 205 on April 23.
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Guida vs Puelles fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Guida vs Puelles method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Clay Guida | Claudio Puelles |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +600 | +650 |
| To win by Points | +165 | +240 |
| To win by Submission | +1,000 | +400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 19.
Guida vs Puelles picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Guida vs Puelles betting preview
Clay Guida is coming off a submission victory against Leonardo Santos in December and could very well be on a three-fight win streak had he not lost a controversial split decision to Mark Madsen last August.
The 40-year-old has enjoyed an incredible career in the sport, racking up a 37-21 record (17-15 in the UFC) after making his professional debut all the way back in 2003.
Despite his advanced age, Guida is an energizer bunny with a high work rate, fantastic cardio, and surprising durability for someone who has been in so many battles. He's also capable as a striker, wrestler, and grappler.
Claudio "El Nino" Puelles has won four fights in a row, most recently defeating Chris Gruetzemacher with a kneebar submission in December. That was actually the third kneebar submission of his career and his second in the promotion after making Felipe Silva tap with that same move in 2018.
The 25-year-old is an excellent grappler and has displayed much sharper striking since making the move to Sanford MMA last year.
Guida vs Puelles tale of the tape
| Clay Guida | Claudio Puelles | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Age | 25 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 37-18 (6 KOs) | Record | 12-2 (2 KOs) |
Guida vs Puelles UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Guida (-110 at bet365)
If Guida was even in his mid-30s it would be easy to back him but even with his ridiculous reserves of energy he still almost got finished by a 42-year-old Santos in his last bout. Puelles definitely has the edge when it comes to Jiu-Jitsu but Guida is an excellent defensive wrestler and might be able to keep this standing up.
From there he should be able to make things messy with his dynamic striking and clinch work. Keep in mind that while Puelles has made strides as a striker he still needs more refinement in that area and was absolutely pieced up by Silva before pulling off the Hail Mary submission.
It's tough to back one fighter simply due to age and Guida still doesn't really fight like an "old guy". It will be interesting to see how Puelles, who prefers a slower pace, deals with the pressure and tempo of Guida. We'll lean ever-so-slightly towards the vet at a pick'em price
Best bet: Puelles by submission (+400 at DraftKings)
Part of the reason we are leaning towards Guida on the moneyline is that he has more tools at his disposal and is capable of making this a messy fight. However, Puelles has one very obvious path to victory and that puts the best betting value on this method to win prop.
Puelles is a very slick grappler and six of his 11 career wins have come by submission. Even when he doesn't pull off the sub he is very active on the mat and often attempts submissions which could prove very dangerous against an aggressive fighter like Guida who will have to enter the pocket due to his reach disadvantage.
Guida has also been submitted 10 times in his career, although fighting almost 60 times over two decades means he's lost by every way imaginable. I'm steering clear of the moneyline and backing this prop at 4 to 1 odds.
