Ciryl Gane vs. Tia Tuivasa is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on September 3 with the promotion hosting its first-ever event in France.
This should be a banger between a pair of highly ranked heavyweights that prefer to stand up and strike. UFC betting lines opened with Gane as a -300 favorite but money has poured in on the more technical striker and he now sits at -550 with the knockout artist Tuivasa coming back at +400.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa picks and predictions, tonight from Accor Arena in Paris.
Gane vs Tuivasa fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Gane vs Tuivasa method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Ciryl Gane | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +130 | +600 |
| To win by Points | +250 | +1,400 |
| To win by Submission | +420 | +3,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 30, 2022.
Gane vs Tuivasa picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Gane vs Tuivasa betting preview
Ciryl "Bon Gamin" Gane is coming off the first loss of his MMA career when he faced Francis Ngannou for the heavyweight title in January. Gane had a clear advantage in the striking exchanges but was taken down four times and controlled on the mat by Ngannou, who had never previously displayed that kind of ground game.
Prior to that defeat, the Frenchman had gone a perfect 10-0 in his MMA career, including seven straight wins to begin his UFC tenure.
The 32-year-old is a physical specimen who looks and moves like an NFL edge rusher. Not just a fantastic athlete, Gane is an elite technical striker who excelled in kickboxing and Muay Thai before entering MMA. He lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.27 and is also a capable grappler with three wins by submission.
Tai Tuivasa has surged up to No. 3 in the heavyweight rankings after knocking out Derrick Lewis in the second round in February. That was the fifth knockout victory in a row for "Bam Bam" who finished all of those opponents inside of the first seven minutes.
The massive Australian is a powerful puncher who sets up his boxing with excellent use of low kicks. Of Tuivasa's 14 career wins, 13 have come by KO/TKO — with a whopping 11 fights ending within the first round.
The 29-year-old is a crowd favorite for his brawler style and his penchant for chugging a beer out of a shoe to celebrate his wins.
Gane vs Tuivasa tale of the tape
| Ciryl Gane | Tai Tuivasa | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| 247 lbs | Weight | 265 lbs |
| 81 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 10-1 (4 KOs) | Record | 15-3 (14 KOs) |
Gane vs Tuivasa UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Gane to win
Although Tuivasa has one-punch knockout power and certainly has a shot at pulling off the upset, this looks like a really bad matchup for him.
We've seen Gane take on massive power-punchers like Lewis and Ngannou and he's barely been touched with his movement, slick defense, and speed proving too much for his slower foes. Tuivasa is quicker than he looks but still has nowhere near the footwork of Gane and his six-inch reach disadvantage will make it tough to close the distance.
Gane's Muay Thai skills will neutralize Tuivasa's low kicks and his accurate straight punches will tag Tuivasa when he throws looping shots.
Keep in mind that Tuivasa absorbed some big shots from Greg Hardy, Blagoy Ivanov, and Lewis. While his chin held up against Hardy and Lewis and he was able to take advantage of their aggression to knock them, out he won't be able to do the same against the methodical Gane. I expect Gane to win this fight, but with such a one-sided line, look elsewhere for betting value.
Prediction: Gane moneyline (-540 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Over 2.5 Rounds
Gane is the more technical striker with better accuracy, output, and cardio, but he's a patient fighter that rarely finishes opponents early. Six of his last seven fights have gone at least midway through the third round, with four of those going the distance.
Like Lewis and Ngannou, Tuivasa will have a tough time landing clean shots on Gane. Gane is such a smooth kickboxer that he'll be able to work from the outside and won't risk trading in the pocket.
There is a possibility that Gane manages to overwhelm Tuivasa with volume in the later rounds of the fight, especially if Bam Bam gasses, but I don't see this fight ending early.
Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-120 at bet365)
