Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vandaraa is scheduled for three rounds in the heavyweight division as a featured undercard attraction of the UFC Fight Night card highlighted by Arnold Allen vs. Calvin Kattar.
Cortes-Acosta hopes to impress in his first fight with the UFC after standing out on Dana White’s Contender series while Vandaraa hopes to avoid losing his fifth fight in a row.
UFC odds have Cortes-Acosta slated as a -195 favorite as the Dominican bruiser hopes to make an impact. The skidding Vandaraa is presumably fighting for his contract, and he is a +165 underdog.
I break it all down in our best UFC picks and predictions below.
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Cortes-Acosta vs Vanderaa fight odds
Cortes-Acosta vs Vanderaa method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Tim Cortes-Acosta | Max Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | -105 | +400 |
| To win by Points | +450 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +900 | +1,100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on October 27, 2022.
Cortes-Acosta vs Vanderaa picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Cortes-Acosta vs Vanderaa betting preview
The depth of the heavyweight division, or lack thereof, is on full display as the UFC tries to manage a soft landing for a potential prospect in Cortes-Acosta. There is no better man for the job than Vandaraa, who is always up to fight but has had a lot of trouble winning one. Cortes-Acosta is not as big of a favorite as one would expect here, so he is under pressure to deliver a strong performance.
Cortes-Acosta put Danilo Suzart down in the first round last August to earn his UFC contract. The 7-0 fighter also has some experience as a professional boxer. He has fast hands, can switch to clobbering strikes once he has an opening, and is athletic enough to go the rounds if need be.
Though he’s only had one fight with measurable statistics, “Salsa Boy” works behind combinations and a lot of movement to limit his opponent's range of motion. Five of his seven victories have been finishes, and we should see him utilize his boxing skills against the seasoned Vandaraa. What can be troubling is that he’s been knocked out twice as a boxer, suggesting his chin might be a liability.
Vandaraa can’t catch a break after being knocked out by Chase Sherman in three rounds last July, dropping him to 1-5 in his previous six fights. The Sherman loss came in a winnable fight, but he suffered his third fight this year alone. He has to feel that this is a must-win fight for him and needs to show up to work if he wants to stay with the UFC.
“The Mountain” lands an impressive 5.23 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and while he does not go for many takedowns, he has a 100% success rate when he does. Vandaraa is a strong striker with seven stoppages to his name and an average bout length of 9:57. He does manage to get hit quite a lot, though he is willing to take shots to land one.
The going thought here is that Vandaraa should be an open book for Cortes-Acosta, though, it's not impossible to see him land a big shot that puts the undefeated prospect down or in a lot of trouble. We don’t really know how high Cortes-Acosta’s ceiling is, but if he gets buzzed or troubled by Vandaraa, then his climb up the division's ladder will be a slow one.
Cortes-Acosta vs Vanderaa tale of the tape
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Jared Vanderaa | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 30 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| 259 lbs | Weight | 265 lbs |
| 78 inches | Reach | 80 inches |
| 7-0 (4 KOs) | Record | 12-9 (7 KOs) |
Cortes-Acosta vs Vanderaa UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta ML
It’s hard to predict how Cortes-Acosta will be utilized in the scheme of things, but he should come out with a win here. Vandaraa’s recent skid is evident that the UFC might not be the right place for him as he hasn’t looked particularly commendable in his defeats.
While any heavyweight has a puncher’s chance, it would be surprising if he breaks his streak at the undefeated prospect’s expense. This looks to be a fight meant to shine the spotlight on the 31-year-old as he’s up against a stepping stone who is easy to hit and not particularly durable.
Barring calamity, we expect Cortes-Acosta to make his formal UFC debut a successful one and hand Vandaraa his fifth straight loss.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta moneyline (-195 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Cortes-Acosta to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2
If Cortes-Acosta follows the script, then he should use his combination striking to back Vandaraa up and put him in serious trouble. He might be a little tense as he feels Vandaraa out, which should only last a round.
By the second, those goosebumps should subside and he’ll close up shop drawing a stoppage. We’re taking Cortes-Acosta to score a stoppage in the early goings of round 2 at +425
Pick: Cortes-Acosta to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+425 at DraftKings)
