Randy Brown vs. Francisco Trinaldo is scheduled for three rounds in the welterweight division and is a featured undercard attraction on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card from Las Vegas. The only thing harder to find than a 6-foot-3 welterweight is a 44-year-old who can still get it done, and these two anomalies are on a collision course.
UFC betting odds see Brown as a big favorite here as he comes in at -315. Trinaldo’s run is expected to run out here, but a bet on rugged underdog comes at +260.
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Brown vs Trinaldo fight odds
Brown vs Trinaldo method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Randy Brown | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +250 | +1,000 |
| To win by Points | +135 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +550 | +1,800 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 29, 2022.
Brown vs Trinaldo picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Brown vs Trinaldo betting preview
Two freaks of welterweight nature take the stage in this intriguing clash. Both Brown and Trinaldo are on winning streaks and are exceptionally talented, with one fighter too tall for the division and one who is getting to be too old. Brown and Trinaldo are both 4-1 in their last five fights, and they look to be very competitive here.
Brown stands at 6-foot-3 and is very good at using his height. The Jamaican puncher works behind a steady jab and lengthy leg kicks to set up his offense but has deceptively good hand speed. He lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute at 48% and only absorbs 3.32 strikes in return with a 55% defense rate. Brown also can work well on the ground, averaging 0.76 takedowns per 15 minutes with 35% accuracy and stuffs 71% of incoming attempts.
The 44-year-old Trinaldo is a bulldog of a fighter and can still show the younger guys a thing or two. He's a brutish striker who doesn’t waste his energy and can be an absolute terror if he manages to fight his way inside. He lands 3.15 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy, absorbing 2.60 strikes in return with a 60% defense rate. On the ground, he marginally outperforms Brown with 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes with 43% accuracy, though only defending 59% of incoming attempts.
After Brown was worked over by Vicente Luque, he bounced back nicely with three wins in a row. While he may not be ready for the best of the division, he’s a serviceable fighter who will be tough to beat. Trinaldo can’t afford a loss this late in his career, but the 12-year age gap might not play as big of a role as it should.
Brown vs Trinaldo tale of the tape
| Randy Brown | Francisco Trinaldo | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 44 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 78 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 15-4 (6 KO) | Record | 28-8 (9 KO) |
Brown vs Trinaldo UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Brown ML
Aging fighters like Trinaldo often stay young with good matchmaking and opponents lacking the physical gifts to make them feel their age. “Rudeboy” has the height and reach to make Trinaldo use his legs and expand that energy, not to mention that he can fight just as well on the inside. That’s the kind of style that Trinaldo struggles against, and that’ll be the case here.
While both men have looked good over their last few fights, Brown has the physical gifts to give Trinaldo fits. There’s no doubting the chances that his older foe could cold-cock him and send him to the canvas, but Brown can build momentum if he doesn’t get discouraged early. In his last three fights, he’s out-landed his opponents 224-168.
With Trinaldo’s age something of a concern in what should be an otherwise competitive fight, we’re opting to side with the youthful Brown and his natural advantages to carry the night.
Prediction: Randy Brown moneyline (-315 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Brown by decision/technical decision
Though Brown has the tools to make things tough for Trinaldo, he doesn’t have the power to detonate his iron chin. Nobody has been able to stop the formidable Brazilian, and he’s been hit with some wicked shots over the years. However, Brown’s physical resources and own aggressive offense should be enough to keep the fight out of reach for the ageless wonder.
With no notable stopping power of his own, Trinaldo will fall into an early hole on the scorecards and won’t be able to muddy it up late. We’re taking Brown to win this one by decision.
Pick: Randy Brown to Win by Decision or Technical Decision (+120 at DraftKings)
