Andre Arlovski vs. Jake Collier is the co-main event for UFC Fight Night betting on April 30 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Arlovski is 43-years-old but keeps winning fights and a victory this weekend would give him a three-way tie atop the UFC record book with 23 wins. Oddsmakers expect him to get that with UFC betting lines opening with the former heavyweight champ as a -145 favorite and Collier the UFC odds underdog at +125.
Here are our best free Arlovski vs. Collier picks and predictions for tonight.
Arlovski vs Collier fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Arlovski vs Collier method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +390 | +460 |
| To win by Points | +150 | +280 |
| To win by Submission | +2,000 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on April 27, 2022.
Arlovski vs Collier picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Arlovski vs Collier betting preview
Andrei "Pitbull" Arlovski is on a three-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Jared Vanderaa by split decision at UFC 271 in February. The 43-year-old is among the most experienced fighters in UFC history having made his promotional debut all the way back in 2000 and boasting a 22-15 record in the octagon.
Arlovski was actually the former UFC heavyweight champion and successfully defended his title twice. After an ugly 3-9 stretch between 2016 and 2019, Arlovski has turned things around going 5-1 since 2020 with his only defeat during that span coming against rising contender Tom Aspinall.
Arlovski is still a solid striker who is dangerous in the clinch and underrated on the ground, but he doesn't have the explosiveness or athleticism that he used to.
Jake Collier is fresh off a first-round submission and a Performance of the Night bonus against Chase Sherman in January.
The MMA journey of Collier is among the weirdest stories out there. Without any background in competitive sports he began training in BJJ at the age of 20. He soon started taking pro fights and rose to become the RFA middleweight champ.
He made his UFC debut at 185 pounds in 2014 and after going 2-2 in that division made the move up to light heavyweight in 2017. After splitting a pair of fights in that weight class he took more than 30 months away from the sport (due to injury and a USADA suspension) and came back at 265 pounds.
He was immediately starched by Aspinall in his heavyweight debut two years ago but has since gone 2-1 with wins against Sherman and Gian Villante and a split-decision loss to Carlos Felipe.
Arlovski vs Collier tale of the tape
| Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier | |
|---|---|---|
| 43 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 246 lbs | Weight | 265 lbs |
| 77 inches | Reach | 78.5 inches |
| 33-20 (17 KOs) | Record | 13-6 (5 KOs) |
Arlovski vs Collier UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Arlovski (-140 at DraftKings)
Arlovski might be 43 but he still has a flat stomach, good movement, and has been very active, which is more than can be said for most heavyweights outside the Top 10.
Collier has alternated wins and losses since 2014 and I don't want to give him too much credit for his recent first-round finish (or Arlovski's victory against Sherman last year) since Sherman is just 1-6 in his last seven UFC fights. Collier's only other win in this weight class came against another tomato can in Villante, who recently retired after four straight defeats.
Collier is actually pretty technical for a heavyweight and he has a decent jab and grappling but he looks like a couch potato that let himself go during the pandemic and his cardio is horrible. Look for him to have some success in the early going but Arlovski will be able to weather that storm before picking him apart with distance striking.
Best bet: Arlovski by decision (+150 at DraftKings)
Arlovski is a guy that, in his prime, was one of the most ruthless knockout artists in the game but with his explosiveness drained by Father Time, he has become more of a points fighter.
His last nine wins (going all the way back to 2015) have all come by way of decision. If you like Pitbull to win you may as well back him to win by points for the better payout.
