Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez is scheduled for three rounds in the bantamweight division as a featured undercard attraction of UFC 281 from Madison Square Garden in New York.
The time has finally come for Edgar to end his legendary career, and he hopes to go out with a win at the expense of Gutierrez.
UFC odds aren’t sympathetic to Edgar’s hopes as Gutierrez is a -210 favorite. Edgar, who has been on the wrong side of a fight with Father Time, nears the midnight of his career at +185.
Here are our picks and predictions for Edgar vs. Gutierrez at UFC 281.
Edgar vs Gutierrez fight odds
Edgar vs Gutierrez method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Frankie Edgar | Chris Gutierrez |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +850 | +195 |
| To win by Points | +360 | +195 |
| To win by Submission | +1,600 | +1,000 |
| Draw | OTB | OTB |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 9, 2022.
Edgar vs Gutierrez picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Edgar vs Gutierrez betting preview
Edgar is finally calling it quits after a long career and he wants to go out on top ahead of his retirement. Time hasn’t been kind to Edgar during a 1-4 skid where he hasn’t looked terribly impressive, and while he’s reaching outside the Top 15 with his opponent here, he may not be reaching far enough. Gutierrez is on the upswing and isn’t about to be victimized by an aged great.
Gutierrez dropped his UFC debut to Raoni Barcelos in 2018 but recovered from the loss and has gone 6-0-1 since. He has momentum behind him and the motivation that retiring Edgar will boost his resume and get him on the bubble to be in contention for a big fight in 2023. He was last seen earning Performance of the Night honors for his second-round TKO of Danaa Batgerel in March.
“El Guapo” gets things done as a striker, landing 4.69 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy with eight stoppage wins. Gutierrez also defends well against takedowns, stopping 73% of attempts to get him to the ground. For this fight, Gutierrez has a three-inch height advantage and momentum that makes him a prospect to watch.
Normally, we’d start by saying “once upon a time” when it comes to Edgar, but even that was a long time ago. The former lightweight champion performed admirably against Marlon Vera last November, but he eventually succumbed to a front kick that stopped him dead in his tracks. The wily Edgar can still make things happen on the ground, but his punch resistance and speed have withered away.
Throughout his career, Edgar lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy and excelled on the ground where he scored 2.30 takedowns per 15 minutes at 31% accuracy. Edgar can still get fighters on the mat, but his struggles stem from being unable to keep them there long enough to establish his own offense.
Gutierrez’s takedown defense seems solid, but he’s been taken down in five of his last six fights and that might give Edgar a chance to pull this off. At the same time, Edgar has been stopped four times in his last five defeats. Edgar will no doubt be commended for taking such a tough fight on the way out, though he’ll add to his legendary career if he manages to pull this off.
Edgar vs Gutierrez tale of the tape
| Frankie Edgar | Chris Gutierrez | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 135.6 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 68 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 23-10-1 (7 KO) | Record | 18-3-2 (8 KO) |
Edgar vs Gutierrez UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Gutierrez ML (-215)
When a fighter announces their “last fight,” they are mentally giving themselves a back door if things don’t go their way. They’ve acknowledged there isn’t much left outside of pride and stubbornness to keep fighting. That is why they normally pick a young lion with some exploitable gaps in their game that they can use to their advantage. It’s the age-old story in any combat sport and they almost always have the same ending.
Edgar should have left well enough alone when he edged past Pedro Munhoz two years ago. At bantamweight, he’s undersized and not strong enough to properly defend himself. Gutierrez is a young gun with a bright future at bantamweight and has all the advantages an old fighter doesn’t want their opponents to have. He’s also fighting with a purpose. A win against Edgar on a major card will do wonders for his marketability as a fighter.
Odds have Gutierrez at -215. There is a theoretical road for Edgar to win here by trying to take down the aggressive striker and keep him on the ground. However, with his limited mobility and compromised chin, it makes it easier to go with Gutierrez here.
Prediction: Chris Gutierrez moneyline (-215 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Gutierrez by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+700)
Gutierrez is going to show Edgar respect and might get taken down early on when he can’t put some serious heat on him in the first round. That should change as the opening round nears its end and Edgar’s chin will begin to fail him. Unless Edgar submits Gutierrez in the first round, he’s not getting out of the second.
Expect Gutierrez to make it hard for Edgar to get those takedowns, muscling him against the cage and working him over in clinches. A good shot over the top will put Edgar down, and the pursuing ground-and-pound ends the legend’s career in the second round for a +700 score.
Pick: Chris Gutierrez to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+700 at DraftKings)
