Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw is scheduled for 5 rounds for the bantamweight title and is a featured undercard attraction on UFC 280 from the bloody sands of Fight Island. Sterling is coming off a statement win over Petr Yan with his eyes set on closing the book on Dillashaw, who is ready for a chance at redemption and history.
Sterling’s youth, incredible grappling ability, and momentum have him installed as a -195 favorite in UFC odds. Former two-time champion Dillawshaw comes in as an attractive +150 underdog.
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Sterling vs Dillashaw fight odds
Sterling vs Dillashaw method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Aljamain Sterling | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,100 | +500 |
| To win by Points | +125 | +280 |
| To win by Submission | +500 | +2,600 |
| Draw | OTB | OTB |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 19, 2022.
Sterling vs Dillashaw picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sterling vs Dillashaw betting preview
This matchup pits the division’s present against its past as Sterling gets a chance to shine against ex-champ Dillashaw. Sterling had to beat Yan twice to earn the respect and recognition that came with his title, only to find Dillashaw at the crossroads as he hopes to rewrite the narrative of his controversial career and become only the second three-time champion in a single weight class.
The ground is exactly where the champ wants this fight to go. Sterling scores 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and has eight submission wins, but he’ll also have a four-inch reach advantage that he’ll have to use to keep Dillashaw at bay. Though he had two incredibly close fights with Yan, it’s clear that Sterling is the man at bantamweight.
Sterling became the first fighter to ever win a title following a disqualification in the first Yan fight. In the rematch, he overcame long odds to beat Yan by split decision. Though he did deservedly win the title, Yan did expose Sterling’s weakness with a strong striking game. The “Funk Master” showed in the rematch that he can take things to another level and outsmarted one of the most resourceful pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.
“Killashaw” is a notoriously strong striker who earned his reputation with his vicious finishes. He lands 5.26 significant strikes per minute and has a strong ground game to complement his striking with 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and an astonishing 86% takedown defense rate. Dillashaw is coming off a big win against Cory Sandhagen 15 months ago and he’ll have to keep the fight standing to pull this off.
Though the split decision verdict he got was questionable at best, Dillashaw looked as tough as ever matching Sandhagen strike-for-strike and controlling him for over eight minutes. The striking will be key here, and Dillashaw might need to hit paydirt early. Though Sterling won’t be confused for Henry Cejudo anytime soon, Dillashaw looked absolutely hapless against a capable grappler who could withstand his striking.
Sterling is rightfully favored here as he beat the best fighter in the division while Dillashaw wouldn’t have been faulted to give Sandhagen a rematch. It will be a motivated champion with something to prove going up against a veteran who is just one fight away from scoring the biggest win of his legendary career.
Sterling vs Dillashaw tale of the tape
| Aljamain Sterling | TJ Dillashaw | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 134.5 lbs | Weight | 136 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 21-3-0 (2 KO) | Record | 18-4-0 (8 KO) |
Sterling vs Dillashaw UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Sterling moneyline
The biggest gap in skill between these two comes down to the striking. There is no doubt that Dillashaw is the better of the two in that department and he has the skills to keep the fight standing, which is where we’ve seen Sterling look his most uncomfortable. Then again, Dillashaw is coming off surgery to repair damaged ligaments in his knee.
Dillashaw is only fighting for the second time in three years, and while his wrestling background can keep Sterling off him in the early goings, the ring rust and lack of mobility for the 36-year-old means he’ll need an early knockout to avoid Sterling wrapping him up and wearing him down.
Sterling might not have hung well with a Dillashawin his prime, but that’s not who he is fighting here. “Funk Master” is in his prime and will be able handle a spirited — but ultimately failed — challenge from one of the division’s premier fighters. We’re riding with the champ to pull it off.
Prediction: Aljamain Sterling moneyline (-195 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Sterling by submission
From the start, we should expect Sterling to test Dillashaw’s mobility and immediately try to get his back. Tensions are running high between these two as Sterling is bringing up Dillashaw’s PED past back to the forefront, and while Sterling is the champion, Dillashaw is convinced he’s fighting to clear his name.
Expect a motivated and inspired performance from Dillashaw to turn into a nightmare. With Sterling’s confidence and age advantage, he’s going to get the chance to work Dillashaw to the mat and choke him out. It might take a while to slow Dillashaw down, but we like Sterling submitting him at some point in the fight at +400.
Pick: Aljamain Sterling to win by submission (+400 at DraftKings)
