UFC 280 Oliveira vs Makhachev Picks and Predictions: Do Bronx Quiets Doubters Once Again

Charles Oliveira opened as a massive underdog against Islam Makhachev and is still available at plus money on the moneyline. This is nothing new for Do Bronx, who has been underestimated in three of his last four wins. Our betting picks like him again.

Oct 22, 2022 • 12:08 ET • 4 min read

Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev is the highly-anticipated headline event for a stacked card of UFC 280 betting on October 22.

UFC odds opened with Makhachev as a -225 favorite and Oliveira at +188 when this fight for the vacant lightweight title was officially announced in July. However, money has come in on the previous champ Oliveira, who now sits at around +132 with Makhachev as low as -170.

Here are my best free UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev picks and predictions for Saturday, October 22 from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Oliveira vs Makhachev fight odds

Oliveira vs Makhachev method of victory odds

Method of Victory Charles Oliveira Islam Makhachev
To win by KO/TKO +500 +600
To win by Points +1,000 +340
To win by Submission +340 +220
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 17, 2022.

Oliveira vs Makhachev picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Oliveira vs Makhachev betting preview

Charles Oliveira was stripped of his lightweight championship in May for missing weight in his second title defense. But after submitting Justin Gaethje in the first round, he earned an immediate shot at the vacant title against the surging Makhachev. 

Do Bronx is on an 11-fight winning streak and prior to beating Gaethje, he finished Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler in back-to-back title fights.

With an extensive background in BJJ, Oliveira is one of the best grapplers in the world and holds the UFC record for most submission wins (16) and finishes (19). He has also vastly improved as a striker and his crisp Muay Thai ability makes him dangerous up close and in the clinch.

Covers UFC 280 Betting Analysis

Islam Makhachev is the No. 4-ranked lightweight contender and has won 10 fights in a row. He's coming off back-to-back dominant first-round finishes after beating Bobby Green via ground-and-pound in February and submitting Dan Hooker last October.  

A sambo specialist hailing from Dagestan, Makhachev trained for years with his close friend — and former UFC lightweight champ — Khabib Nurmagomedov. The 31-year-old is a terrific wrestler with relentless takedowns, ferocious ground-and-pound, and strong submission skills. 

Oliveira vs Makhachev tale of the tape

Charles Oliveira   Islam Makhachev
32 Age 31
5-foot-10 Height 5-foot-10
155.5 lbs Weight 160 lbs
74 inches Reach 70.5 inches
33-8-0, 1 NC (9 KO) Record 22-1-0 (4 KO)

Oliveira vs Makhachev UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

As effective as Oliveira's Muay Thai has been, part of the reason it has succeeded is that his elite grappling has been a bit of a cheat code. An elbows-high, tall Muay Thai stance makes fighters susceptible to takedowns but Oliveira doesn't care because of how dangerous he is off his back.

Likewise, when his poor head movement off the center line and aggression can lead to him getting dropped, he just falls into guard and recovers because nobody wants to follow him to the mat. 

Makhachev chains many of his single and double-leg takedowns and trips out of the clinch position. He's incredibly confident in his own grappling ability so I don't expect him to shy away from engaging on the ground.

However, we have seen him match up against adept grapplers like Davi Ramos and Arman Tsarukyan before and he wasn't able to impose his usual physical dominance on the mat in either bout.

Sure, he still cruised by both fighters but Tsarukyan was able to flow through transitions and make submission attempts off his back while the BJJ specialist Ramos was able to keep things standing up but was owned in the striking exchanges. 

Oliveira has far more dangerous submissions (especially with his length) than a 22-year-old Tsarukyan and he's a much more precise striker than Ramos.

Oliveira's pressure and striking up the middle could pose problems for Makhachev and his grappling should be enough to neutralize the Dagestani fighter's wrestling and wrist control. 

Prediction: Charles Oliveira moneyline (+160 at DraftKings)

Makhachev has looked dominant over the last few years and has been rolling over his opponents with ease. Oliveira's recent fights have been much closer (especially the bouts against Chandler and Poirier) but he has faced significantly tougher competition than Makhachev, who benefited from both Green and Hooker stepping in on short notice. 

That's important because, while both fighters are capable veterans, neither is above-average in terms of wrestling and not being able to specifically train for a guy like Makhachev was a huge disadvantage. 

However, Do Bronx has been training with a wrestling specialist in Alireza Noei, which should help him better prepare for this matchup.

When this fight was just rumored earlier this year, offshores released look-ahead lines with Makhachev as a whopping -415 favorite. Those odds were ridiculous given how terrific Oliveira has been over the last few years and even the opening line of -225 was too generous.

With Oliveira now in the neighborhood of +130 to +160, that line makes more sense but with Do Bronx closing as a short underdog in three of his last four wins, I'll back him at plus money again.

Pick: Charles Oliveira moneyline (+160 at DraftKings)

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