(Editor's note: Preview was published before fight was cancelled).
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez is scheduled for three rounds in the welterweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 279 undercard from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Saturday, September 10. These peaking welterweights are ready for battle, and this one could quickly turn into an all-out war.
The resurgent Holland is making noise in his new weight class, and he’s a comfortable UFC odds favorite here. Rodriguez is hoping to build on the momentum from his surprising upset of Kevin Lee last year.
Get the best UFC betting angles with our Holland vs. Rodriguez picks.
Holland vs Rodriguez fight odds
Holland vs Rodriguez method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Kevin Holland | Daniel Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +195 | +440 |
| To win by Points | +300 | +440 |
| To win by Submission | +750 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 8, 2022.
Holland vs Rodriguez picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Holland vs Rodriguez betting preview
A trip down the scales looks to be exactly what the doctor ordered for Holland, who is looking every bit as dangerous as he was during a five-fight win streak at middleweight. His welterweight campaign has featured his trademark power, but also an improved grappling game to add to his arsenal. That being said, he’s up against a fighter who can potentially match him shot for shot in Rodriguez.
Holland doesn’t need to land often to do damage. He lands 3.90 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 2.41 in return, and he’s a proven finisher, with 19 of his 23 wins coming inside the distance. One of the biggest advantages he’ll have is his enormous 81” reach, though he’s showing that he’s addressing his vulnerabilities in his ground game by incorporating it more in his offense.
Rodriguez is supremely conditioned and does not stop coming. He lands an unbelievable 8.06 significant strikes per minute and opts to keep the fight standing with a strong takedown defense. After years of staying afloat by taking fights on short notice, Rodriguez scored a major win over former lightweight title challenger Lee in August 2021.
All eyes are on Holland and his resurgence, especially now that the division is wide open following Kamaru Usman’s shocking loss to Leon Edwards. Rodriguez does land often, but he’s also relatively easy to hit and isn’t going to be able to bully Holland like he did against the smaller Lee. The big question here is if Holland will stick to his striking or try to flex his grappling game against a sharp striker.
Rodriguez is ready to rumble, and Holland might find himself in a dogfight if Rodriguez manages to get inside or time his sometimes overly-looping shots.
Holland vs Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Kevin Holland | Daniel Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 81 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 23-7-1 (13 KOs) | Record | 16-2 (8 KOs) |
Holland vs Rodriguez UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Holland to win
What could make Rodriguez an intriguing upset pick is that he can match Holland in striking prowess, but he doesn’t have the type of style that will discern Holland from engaging. When Holland saw the wheels come out from beneath him at middleweight, it was because he was mauled and repeatedly taken down to the mat by master grapplers.
It is hard seeing Rodriguez doing that. He’s going to have a hard enough time getting touched up on the outside and might have to take some risks just to land a glancing shot at Holland. Even then, Holland’s size and mobility could put Rodriguez on the mat and in a terrible position to fall victim to Holland’s big blows.
We’ll know right away how this fight is going to go, and we’re liking Holland to come out on top in this battle of welterweight bangers.
Prediction: Holland moneyline (-195 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Holland by KO in Round 2
One way or another, Holland is going to run Rodriguez into a huge shot that will either spark him out then and there or leave him open to a follow-up barrage that ends things. If he keeps up his progress, Holland might realize the potential many thought was lost at middleweight. Rodriguez is tough, but toughness alone won’t cut it here.
We’re liking Holland to find his range and lower the boom in the second round, finishing Rodriguez off in impressive fashion. Taking Holland by second-round KO will net a +700 haul.
Pick: Holland to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+700 at DraftKings)
