Khamzat Chimaev was originally set to fight Nate Diaz in the headline event of tonight’s UFC 279, but missed weight by 7.5 pounds and will now face Kevin Holland, who was scheduled to fight at a catchweight of 180 pounds.
UFC betting lines hit the board on Friday with Chimaev as a -550 favorite with Holland coming back at +400.
Here are my best free Chimaev vs. Holland picks and predictions for September 10 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Chimaev vs Holland fight odds
| Method of Victory | Khamzat Chimaev | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Outright win | -590 | +410 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +190 | +700 |
| To win by Points | +260 | +1,100 |
| To win by Submission | +250 | +3,400 |
| Draw | OTB | OTB |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 10, 2022.
Chimaev vs Holland picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Chimaev vs Holland betting preview
Khamzat "Borz" Chimaev has surged up to No. 3 in the welterweight rankings after defeating Gilbert Burns by unanimous decision in one of the most thrilling fights of the year in April.
That back-and-forth battle against the former No. 2 contender in Burns was the first real test of Chimaev's career after he finished his first four UFC opponents with ease by landing a total of 112 significant strikes and absorbing just one.
Chimaev is a perfect 11-0 in his MMA career, and has racked up five wins and five Performance of the Night or Fight of Night bonuses since joining the UFC. The 28-year-old has incredible strength and is an elite wrestler with heavy hands and brutal ground-and-pound.
Kevin "Trailblazer" Holland was once one of the promotion's fastest rising star after tying a UFC record with five wins in 2020, including three Performance of the Night bonuses. That hype train got derailed in a hurry when his wrestling was exposed and he suffered lopsided defeats against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori.
He returned to welterweight (where he began his MMA career) earlier this year and pulled off back-to-back stoppage wins against Alex Oliveira and Tim Means, again earning Performance of the Night bonuses both times.
The 29-year-old is a long and athletic fighter with creative striking and explosive power.
Chimaev vs Holland tale of the tape
| Khamzat Chimaev | Kevin Holland | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 81 inches |
| 11-0 (6 KOs) | Record | 23-7 (13 KOs) |
Chimaev vs Holland UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Chimaev to win
We've already seen that Holland can't do much against fighters with strong ground games when he was controlled for a whopping 37 minutes by Brunson and Vettori last year. While he appears to have improved his grappling since then, his wrestling is still a major weakness and will get exposed by someone like Chimaev who has powerful takedowns and excellent top control.
Holland did have success on his feet against Brunson, but Chimaev has much better striking ability, and while Trailblazer managed to avoid damage from Vettori, Borz has far more stopping power. This is simply a terrible matchup for Holland and he will get mauled once again.
Prediction: Chimaev to win (-550 at bet365)
Best bet: Chimaev by KO/TKO or submission
As frustrating as the weigh-in debacle must have been for Dana White, the end results are matchups that might be more fun. Holland, who aptly also has the nickname “Loudmouth”, had been getting under Chimaev's skin with his constant jawing all week, which ended up in a backstage altercation before Thursday's press conference.
That bad blood should be fuel for an aggressive fighter like Chimaev, who has always hunted for finishes and has typically gotten them early. While Borz couldn't stop Burns in his last fight, he also couldn't take down the high-end grappler and had to stand up and bang.
Holland will be much easier to take to the mat, and once Chimaev takes down foes, he doesn't give them any room to defensively grapple or muster any offense of their own. Expect Chimaev to take Bigmouth down early and finish him with either ground-and-pound or a vice-like submission.
Pick: Chimaev by KO/TKO or submission (-170 at FanDuel)
