UFC 276 Volkanovski vs Holloway Picks and Predictions: Revenge to the Max

Max Holloway may have lost each of his previous two bouts against Alexander Volkanovski but neither result was wholly decisive. Holloway probably should have emerged victorious in the second fight. See if we think he rights the ship this time.

Last Updated: Jul 2, 2022 9:13 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway 3 is the co-main event for a stacked card of UFC 276 betting on July 2.

Volkanovski will be making his fourth defense of the featherweight championship after taking the title from Holloway in 2019 and defeating him in a rematch the following year. Oddsmakers expect him to win again with UFC betting lines hitting the board with Volk as a -188 favorite and Holloway coming back at +162.

Here are our best free Volkanovski vs. Holloway 3 picks and predictions for Saturday, July 2 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Volkanovski vs Holloway fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Volkanovski vs Holloway method of victory odds

Method of Victory Alexander Volkanovski Max Holloway
To win by KO/TKO +350 +550
To win by Points +125 +320
To win by Submission +1,300 +1,800
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 28, 2022.

Volkanovski vs Holloway picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Volkanovski vs Holloway betting preview

Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski is coming off his third successful defense of the featherweight title after dominating the "Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung in April. Volkanovski took Jung down four times and had a 138-48 edge in significant strikes before the fight was stopped in the fourth round with Jung continuing to eat big punches.

Volk hasn't lost since 2013, winning 21 straight fights (including 11 in a row inside the octagon). The Australian is making a strong case to be considered the greatest featherweight of all time after racking up victories against Holloway, Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, and Brian Ortega.

Volkanovski has a background in wrestling and used to compete at the semi-professional level in Rugby League, playing at 214 lbs. Despite now fighting in the 145-pound division, he retains that core strength he unleashes with powerful kickboxing and ferocious ground-and-pound.

Max "Blessed" Holloway has bounced back from those close defeats to Volkanovski with a pair of unanimous decision victories against Yair Rodriguez and Calvin Kattar. He shattered his own UFC record by landing 445 significant strikes vs. Kattar before outstriking Rodriguez 230-159 last November. He also tapped into his seldom-used wrestling against Rodriguez, taking him down three times and controlling him on the mat for almost seven minutes.

Holloway is just 30 years old but has already fought 25 times in the UFC and successfully defended the 145-pound title three times. He's 15-3 in his last 18 fights, with his only defeats coming in title bouts against Volk and Dustin Poirier (at lightweight).

Blessed is a long and rangy fighter with terrific kickboxing ability. He also has a solid chin, high-volume output, and phenomenal cardio.

Volkanovski vs Holloway tale of the tape

Alexander Volkanovski   Max Holloway
33 Age 30
5-foot-6 Height 5-foot-11
145 lbs Weight 145 lbs
71.5 inches  Reach 69 inches
24-1 (12 KOs) Record 23-6 (10 KOs)

Volkanovski vs Holloway UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

This should be an incredible trilogy bout between two elite fighters who have separated themselves from the other contenders atop the featherweight division. The first fight between these two was relatively close with two judges scoring it 48-47 for Volkanovski while the other curiously gave it a more lopsided 50-45. The big deciding factor in that bout was calf kicks, with Volkanovski landing a whopping 75 and Holloway rarely defending them. The rematch was even more competitive with a split decision going Volkanovski's way but 18 of 27 media outlets scored it in favor of Holloway. 

Holloway did an excellent job of adjusting in the second fight by narrowing his stance and fighting taller. That allowed him to be lighter on his lead leg and fire off kicks of his own. However, Volk was able to mix in his takedown attempts and connect with his laser-like left hand in the championship rounds, which resulted in him getting the W.

While we can see why Volkanovski is the favorite once again, his implied win probability of 65.5% seems a tad too high. I have a tough time giving Volkanovski more than a 55/45 of winning on Saturday, which has me leaning towards Blessed at +162.

PredictionMax Holloway moneyline (+162 at bet365)

With his superior wrestling and striking accuracy, Volk should have an ever-so-slight edge but he doesn't have much value at nearly -200, especially when you consider that you can get the "fight to go the distance" prop at virtually the same price and that seems like more of a certainty.

We've seen these guys tee off on each other for 50 minutes already and neither has officially been knocked down in those bouts. Hell, Holloway has never been dropped in his MMA career and he's faced some heavy hitters including Conor McGregor, Poirier, and Aldo.

With Holloway's iron chin, Volkanovski's tight striking defense, and the cardio both fighters possess, this fight will likely go the distance. I'm leaning towards Holloway on the moneyline price for value, and love the payout on the Holloway "to win by points" prop, which sits at better than 3/1 odds.

Pick: Max Holloway to win by decision (+320 at FanDuel)

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