Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena is scheduled for three rounds in the welterweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 276 undercard this weekend in Las Vegas. Ex-champ Lawler is trying to win back-to-back fights for the first time in seven years while Barberena hopes to win his third straight at the living legend’s expense.
Coming off a win in a grudge match against Nick Diaz, UFC odds have the 40-year-old Lawler as a slight -120 favorite to win. Barbarena comes in at +100 despite being on a winning streak and the strength of his recent form.
Here are our free UFC betting picks and predictions for Lawler vs. Barberena on Saturday, July 2.
Lawler vs Barberena fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Lawler vs Barberena method of victory odds
|Method of Victory||Robbie Lawler||Bryan Barberena|
|To win by KO/TKO||+380||+420|
|To win by Points||+180||+250|
|To win by Submission||+2,600||+1,200|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 29, 2022.
Lawler vs Barberena picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lawler vs Barberena betting preview
A lock for the Hall of Fame one day, Lawler still plugs away despite his best days being way behind him. The victory over a badly faded and inactive Diaz put him back in the spotlight, but doesn’t absolve him from being winless in the four years prior. While he’s closer to the end of his career, Lawler’s resume and reputation speak louder than Barberena’s middling success in the UFC.
At his peak, Lawler was a ferocious striker with a great chin and tons of heart. Over the course of his career, he averages 3.73 strikes landed per minute with 46% accuracy and has 21 knockouts in 29 wins. He’s shared the octagon with some of the best fighters the division has seen in his prime, and only has started to come undone late in his career.
Though the writing is on the wall for Lawler, the jury is still out on Barberena. He’s shown flashes of promise, but he often falls short in the type of fights that would legitimize him. Like Lawler, he’s a tough out and can hang with the likes of Vicente Luque, Leon Edwards, and Colby Covington, but he can’t seem to get over that hump.
Barberena comes forward and uses his fast hands to do his dirty work. Landing 5.61 strikes per minute and having 10 knockouts in 17 wins, he’s likely to take the fight to his veteran opponent to test his chin and his legs. While he’s struggled against takedowns in the past, Lawler has failed to score a takedown since his 2019 loss to Ben Askren.
If Lawler can get his shots off first, he’ll have to make it count and avoid prolonged exchanges with his younger opponent. At the same time, Barberena can’t show Lawler too much respect with the advantages he’ll bring in his youth and striking output, especially as Lawler is relying more on his chin as he continues to slow down.
Lawler vs Barberena tale of the tape
|Robbie Lawler||Bryan Barberena|
|184 lbs||Weight||183 lbs|
|74 inches||Reach||72.5 inches|
|29-15 (21 KOs)||Record||17-8 (10 KOs)|
Lawler vs Barberena UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
We get the feeling that Lawler is being made a sentimental favorite in this bout, because there’s no real upside in picking him against a fighter with some momentum behind him and unlikely to fall victim to his limited game plan. Once upon a time, Lawler would toy with someone as inconsistent and middling as Barberena, but beating a Diaz brother doesn’t carry the same weight in the octagon as it does on social media.
As long as Barberena doesn’t get hit by a huge shot — and Lawler hasn’t scored a stoppage in over seven years — he’ll outwork him and spring the upset. Get the line while it’s available because it’s likely to flip to Barberena’s favor before fight night.
Prediction: Bryan Barberena moneyline (+100 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Barberena
Now Barberena should absolutely stop Lawler, but there might be a sense of respect that he won’t want to punish a fighter he likely looked up to if the fight is going his way. With Lawler still showing he can take an absurd amount of punishment, it’s possible that he could go the distance even if he’s mopping up strikes the whole way through.
Betting on Barbarena to get the decision is +225, but it’s risky. It is just as likely he’ll start hurting Lawler to the point where the ref or Lawler’s corner might step in, and because of that, it’s not a reliable prop. Barberena winning straight up looks good to me, and that’s my call for this fight.
Pick: Bryan Barberena moneyline (+100 at DraftKings)