Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson is on the main card for UFC 274 betting on May 7.
This should be a banger between a pair of lightweight contenders looking to snap out of losing skids. UFC odds hit the board at offshores with Chandler as a -180 favorite but money immediately poured in on the former Bellator champ and Chandler is now priced at -400 with Ferguson coming back at +300.
Here are our best free Chandler vs. Ferguson picks and predictions for Saturday, May 7 from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona.
Chandler vs Ferguson fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Chandler vs Ferguson method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +115 | +850 |
| To win by Points | +260 | +600 |
| To win by Submission | +700 | +1,500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on May 4, 2022.
Chandler vs Ferguson picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Chandler vs Ferguson betting preview
"Iron" Michael Chandler is coming off back-to-back losses, albeit against the two fighters facing off for the lightweight title at Saturday's headline event. He lost by decision to Justin Gaethje in November in an exciting bout that earned Fight of the Night honors and was knocked out by current titleholder Charles Oliveira when they faced off for the vacant belt last May.
Chandler made his highly-anticipated UFC debut in spectacular fashion 16 months ago, starching Dan Hooker in the first round. The 36-year-old was a three-time lightweight champ at Bellator and left the promotion with career records for wins (18), finishes (13), and title bouts (11).
Chandler is a very well-rounded fighter that combines excellent wrestling with explosive power and a high-pressure style.
Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson is currently No. 7 in the lightweight rankings, despite coming into UFC 274 on a three-fight losing streak. Ferguson's losing streak also includes defeats to Gaethje and Oliveira, and in his most recent bout last May he was dominated by current No. 4 contender Beneil Dariush.
Prior to his recent losing skid, El Cucuy had won 12 consecutive fights in the octagon, with nine of those victories coming by finish.
Ferguson is one of the most entertaining fighters around, combining unpredictable striking with incredible pace and high-level submissions.
Chandler vs Ferguson tale of the tape
| Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 38 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 71.5 inches | Reach | 76.5 inches |
| 22-7 (10 KOs) | Record | 26-6 (12 KOs) |
Chandler vs Ferguson UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Chandler ML
Ferguson has lost three in a row and while losing to the best fighters in the division isn't necessarily a cause for alarm, losing as badly as he did is troubling, especially at his age.
El Cucuy was brutalized in the striking exchanges with Gaethje, absorbing 100 significant strikes to his head, and was mauled on the ground by Oliveira and Dariush, who combined for a whopping 24 minutes of control time.
Chandler might be coming off back-to-back defeats of his own but he almost finished Oliveira in the first round and had a back-and-forth war with Gaethje.
It's tough to see any area where Ferguson will have much success in this one, he's still very creative with his striking but doesn't have the speed he once possessed and he isn't the threat off the back that he used to be — which could be a major problem if Chandler decides to utilize that All-American wrestling background.
We like Chandler's chances of winning but at this steep price we'll look elsewhere for betting value.
Prediction: Chandler moneyline (-365 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Fight to start Round 3
It's tough to find value with Chandler in this one and oddsmakers expect him to finish this fight early, with the lowest method of victory line being Chandler to win by KO/TKO at nearly even money. That seems a bit disrespectful to Ferguson's insane durability.
Despite slowing down with age and accumulated damage, Ferguson remains one of the toughest fighters out there. His refusal to tap during deep submission attempts from Oliveira and Dariush, as well as his ability to withstand punishment from Gaethje until the ref called an end to the fight with less than two minutes left in the fifth round, showed how hard he is to finish.
As aggressive as both of these guys are, Ferguson's toughness will ensure that this fight goes past the first two rounds.
Pick: Fight to start Round 3 (-110 at FanDuel)
