The contrast for Sunday’s French Open final couldn’t be more glaring, as first-time finalist Casper Ruud faces his idol and 13-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal.
Unsurprisingly, Nadal is the prohibitive -650 French Open odds favorite. Can Ruud, the best player on clay since the start of 2020, pull off a miraculous upset and put an end to Nadal’s immaculate 13-0 record in French Open finals?
Nadal vs Ruud odds
| (5) Rafael Nadal | (8) Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| -650 | Moneyline | +460 |
| -6.5 (-130) | Match handicap (games) | +6.5 (-102) |
| Over 34.5 (-130) | Total games | Under 34.5 (-125) |
| Over 3.5 (-130) | Total sets | Under 3.5 (-104) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 4, 2022.
Nadal vs Ruud picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some French Open betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Nadal vs Ruud betting preview
A Norwegian player will compete in the final at Roland Garros for the first time. While the magnitude of that accomplishment is not lost on Ruud, he won’t be satisfied with merely making an appearance in the showcase event.
The 8th-ranked Norwegian celebrated his first title on tour in 2021 and has won eight overall, seven of which came on clay. Like Nadal, Ruud saves his best tennis for clay. Since 2020, the 23-year-old leads the ATP with 66 wins and seven titles on the surface immortalized by his mentor.
It’s hardly surprising that Ruud has spent the last four years training at Nadal’s Mallorca tennis academy.
However, his clay-court dominance hasn’t extended to the courts of Roland Garros, where he lost three consecutive third-round matches and had a middling 7-4 record prior to the start of this year’s tournament.
That said, it looks like Ruud’s struggles at the French Open are behind him based on proceedings over the last fortnight.
Ruud, who won the Geneva Open in preparation for Roland Garros, enters Sunday’s final on a 10-match winning streak. It took Ruud four sets, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2, to dispatch Marin Cilic in the semifinal.
Ruud enjoyed only one straight-set win en route to the final, but still managed to close out most matches in a timely fashion, only having to stay on the court for more than three and a half hours in the first round, a four-set tussle against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
He should be relatively fresh for the most important match of his career.
It’s uncertain whether Nadal, whose attendance at the tournament was mired in doubt after he suffered back-to-back injuries to his ribs and foot, feels the same way.
The banged-up Spaniard endured a somewhat arduous progression to the final from the fourth round onward, outlasting Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime in a five-set, over-four-hour thriller before ousting world number one Novak Djokovic in a four-set, just-over-four-hour dogfight.
The game clock read three hours and 12 minutes when Alexander Zverev went down with a devastating ankle injury in the second set of Friday’s semifinal. Had Zverev not been forced to retire, it could have turned into one of the longest semifinals in recent memory.
The looming question is whether Nadal’s foot and ribs can hold up for one more, potentially grueling match on the most taxing and draining surface. The longer the final goes, the more it favors the Norwegian challenger.
Now, with an otherworldly 111-3 record at Roland Garros, Nadal is poised to extend his 13-match unbeaten streak in French Open finals. It’s impossible to put into context the magnitude of that prospective achievement. Getting to a Grand Slam final is one thing, but winning 14 without suffering the sour taste of a single defeat not only defies the odds, it makes a laughingstock of them.
Considering his injury-plagued lead-up to the tournament, this triumph would arguably be his most rewarding, impressive, and defiant French Open title of the lot.
Nadal vs Ruud prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Nadal ML
It’s one thing to acknowledge Ruud’s preeminent ability on clay, but another entirely to believe he can unseat the king of Roland Garros in his first Grand Slam final.
For Ruud to have any chance of upsetting Nadal, he will need to be devastating on his serve, minimize unforced errors, and aggressively attack every point. Being continually assertive, however, comes with the inherent risk of committing more errors.
Ruud has no choice but to take the impetus and put Nadal consistently on the defensive. Nadal’s ratio of winners to unforced errors isn’t as impressive as previous French Opens, offering Ruud a window of opportunity.
That window will close faster than a Venus flytrap if he’s unable to mitigate the number of break-point chances he concedes.
Nadal has converted 45 percent of break-point opportunities in six matches leading up to the final, highlighting the delicate balance Ruud has to strike between forcing the tempo and keeping his emotions in check.
Ruud will one day win the French Open, probably numerous times, but his maiden title will have to wait at least one more year.
Prediction: Rafael Nadal moneyline (-650 at FanDuel)
Best bet: Nadal to win + both players win a set
The way Ruud acquits himself on clay provides ample evidence to suggest he can at least win a set against Nadal.
Ruud will want to take full advantage of Nadal’s compounding wear and tear. The 36-year-old would never admit mid-tournament to feeling tired, weary, or even slightly injured.
That’s not to say he’s feeling any ill effects of the impairments, but it’s up to Ruud to put Nadal’s aging, injury-prone body to the test by playing fast, tenacious, aggressive, and hard.
Ruud rarely advances to the net, instead preferring to hit bombs from the backcourt.
Nadal, whose on-court problem-solving skills are second to none, will invariably try to get the 23-year-old out of his comfort zone by bringing him to the net as much as possible.
The weather could also impact how either player performs on Sunday. Rain and thunderstorms are expected, which could have a detrimental impact on both players if the roof on Court Philippe-Chatrier is closed.
Nadal struggled to cope with the repressive, sapping humidity against Zverev in the closed-roof environment on Friday. Ruud prefers an open roof because the surface plays quicker and is more conducive to the powerful and rapid brand of tennis that suits him best.
Ruud will make the final interesting by winning a set, but Nadal should prevail in four sets and win his 14th French Open title.
Pick: Rafael Nadal to win + both players win a set (+130 at FanDuel)
