Berrettini vs Nadal Picks for Australian Open Men's Semifinal

With Federer and Djokovic out of the mix, the race to 21 major titles is very much in Nadal's hands. His chase continues with a tough semi-final matchup against Matteo Berrettini. Get the breakdown of the matchup, the best bet, and more below.

Last Updated: Jan 27, 2022 10:42 AM ET Read Time: 3 min
Rafael Nadal 2022 Australian Open
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

While Rafael Nadal was certainly tested in his quarter-final matchup against Denis Shapovalov, the chase for his record-setting 21st major title continues tonight in this semi-final matchup against No. 7 Matteo Berrettini. 

Covers Experts’ resident tennis handicapper Tennis Insiders breaks down the semifinalists and matchup with our Australian Open semifinal picks.

Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal odds

(7) Matteo Berrettini (6) Rafael Nadal
+150 Moneyline -188
+3.5 (-120) Match Handicap (Games) -3.5 (-120)
2.5 (-120) Total Breaks of Serve 3.5 (-120)

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of January 27, 2022.

Australian Open men's semifinal betting preview

Matteo Berrettini betting breakdown

Berrettini has reached a third major semi-final and his big serve/forehand combination is proving pretty difficult to stop on hard/grass courts. He’s also held his nerve in fifth sets against Carlos Alcaraz & Gael Monfils.

Berrettini has displayed great consistency, reaching the quarter-finals or better at every major. However, certain weaknesses will probably prevent him from winning one.

Rafael Nadal betting breakdown

Nadal fought the heat and a stomach issue to scrape past Denis Shapovalov in five sets in the quarter-finals, and an extra day's rest before Friday's semi-final could be crucial.

Nadal has struggled more at night in Melbourne in recent years as the ball doesn’t kick up off the court as much so scheduling/weather will once again be worth noting.

Australian Open men's semifinal matchup preview

Nadal’s loopy top-spin forehand kicks into Berrettini’s backhand. Even in cooler conditions, this pattern of play hurts the Italian who prefers to slice his backhand.

Berrettini produced a serving clinic against Carreno Busta and he will need a repeat performance against Nadal. 

Nadal was fortunate to emerge from his quarter-final. If he's fully fit, he should prove a very difficult matchup for the Italian. If certain areas of his game aren't firing, he could be vulnerable. This matchup is on the Spaniard's racquet. 

Australian Open men's semifinal pick

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