We've reached the Australian Open women's final: it's time to crown our first major champion of 2022.
This final presents a fascinating matchup of styles: Ashleigh Barty’s beautiful all-court game based around placement and angles versus Danielle Collins’ heavy hitting.
Covers Experts’ resident tennis handicapper Tennis Insiders breaks down the finalists and matchup with our Australian Open women's final picks.
Ashleigh Barty vs Danielle Collins odds
| (1) Ashleigh Barty | (27) Danielle Collins | |
|---|---|---|
| -500 | Moneyline | +380 |
| -4.5 (-125) | Match Handicap (Games) | +4.5 (-110) |
| 3.5 (Over -200/Under +150) | Total Breaks of Serve | 1.5 (Over -163/Under +120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of January 27, 2022.
Australian Open women's final betting preview
Ashleigh Barty betting breakdown
After a crushing defeat to Sofia Kenin in the semifinal two years ago Barty stated, ‘she had the gameplan but didn’t execute’. Two years later, she’s reached her first Australian Open final, yet to drop a set in the process, executing every part of her game to perfection.
Barty’s performances have been phenomenal, as she’s yet to drop a set and no player has taken more than seven games from her.
Her semifinal dismantling of the red-hot Madison Keys once again showed how her unique variety can bamboozle opponents, depriving them of rhythm and never allowing them to settle into a pattern of play.
She’s the first Australian woman since Wendy Turnbull in 1980 to reach the final, can she remain calm with a nation’s expectation on her shoulders and win a third major crown?
She’s already won French Open & Wimbledon titles, if she emerges victorious on Saturday, she’ll have a major on each of the three surfaces, something her all-court game deserves.
Danielle Collins betting breakdown
Collins lost in the semis here three years ago. Now, she’s playing her first major final after blitzing opponents with aggressive ball striking.
Collins’ path to the final has featured multiple impressive victories, beating Clara Tauson, Elise Mertens and Alize Cornet before dismissing Iga Swiatek in straight sets.
Her semifinal performance was immaculate. She feasted on Swiatek’s second serves, which were kicking up into her backhand, and constant aggression allowed her to rush her opponent consistently from the baseline.
This will be her first major final, but she’s carried herself with a steely determination throughout this tournament. This is only her third career final on the WTA Tour, her journey since turning pro after playing collegiate tennis has been fantastic to watch.
Australian Open women's final matchup preview
Barty leads the head-to-head 3-1. Collins won the most recent meeting in Adelaide last year, while two of her defeats required a deciding third set.
If you’re going to beat Barty, you need to try and make her play topspin backhands. This is difficult for most of the tour to do, as they hit hard and flat, and as Barty is simply too good at absorbing and redirecting pace, few of the world’s top players can beat her.
Collins is more adept than most of the tour at handling slice, and the fact she’s contested so many close matches against Barty is proof of that. She’s comfortable at taking on low-bouncing balls and crashing the net.
If Barty had a choice, she would have preferred to be facing Swiatek, especially with this being a night match and the conditions being slower and courts lower-bouncing. Barty’s service hold percentages have been immense, but they will face a test with Collins’s ability to hit clean return winners off the backhand wing. This should be Barty’s trickiest matchup yet.
Australian Open women's final pick
- Danielle Collins Over 8.5 Games Won (-120 at bet365)
