The Australian Open is winding down, and four men remain on the Australian Open odds board.
Two of them seem to be on a collision course to meet in a rematch of the 2021 Roland Garros final, while the others are seeking their first-ever appearance in a Grand Slam final.
Will the underdogs prevail here, or will the known commodities move on? Let’s take a look at who should match up in Sunday’s final in our Australian Open free betting picks.
Australian Open Men's semifinal picks and predictions
- SF1 Prediction: Tsitsipas (-240)
- SF1 Best bet: Khachanov +4.5 games (-114)
- SF2 Prediction: Djokovic (-1,700)
- SF2 Best bet: Under 30.5 games (-110)
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Karen Khachanov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas odds and picks
Odds
| (18) Karen Khachanov | January 27, 12:00 a.m. ET | (3) Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| +205 | Moneyline | -250 |
| +4.5 (-125) | Game spread | -4.5 (+100) |
| Over 40.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 40.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 26, 2023.
Khachanov vs Tsitsipas match prediction
These two have met five times on tour with the Greek taking all five matches. Two of the last three have gone the distance, however, with Khachanov looking poised to finally take his first match off the World No. 4.
While Khachanov has never beaten Tsitsipas, he’s arguably never played this well in his career, and it’s worth noting that those three meetings I referenced all happened in the last two seasons. He’s steadily improved since his big breakout win in Paris in 2019 and subsequent career letdown.
We will get into how this match might go in a second, but if I have to call a winner here it’s going to be the favorite. While I do think Khachanov will dig his teeth into this match, I find it hard to believe he can outlast or outplay Tsitsipas in a best-of-five setting.
Tsitsipas comes into this semifinal with a head of steam. He’s yet to lose this year in nine matches, coming into the Australian Open with some nice wins over Taylor Fritz and Matteo Berrettini.
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas (-240 at FanDuel)
Khachanov vs Tsitsipas best bet
Khachanov has been rocking the ball over the last couple of weeks, hitting blistering forehand winners and serving incredibly well. With that, I think he should be able to cover the spread of 4.5 games here. I see him winning a set at minimum and given how hard he’s been to break, I think he loses the other three sets in close fashion.
I’m particularly concerned about Tsitsipas' backhand here, which is his weaker wing. Khachanov hits a clean backhand and hits it low, and on these surfaces, it’s going to be hard for the Greek to dig out and get offensive.
As I noted above, Khachanov has played Tsitsipas incredibly closely over the past two years and definitely has a chance to win this match outright. He proved in his run to the semifinals at the US Open that he is a big-match player. I expect him to come ready.
Best bet: Karen Khachanov +4.5 games (-114 at BetRivers)
Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul odds and picks
Odds
| (4) Novak Djokovic | January 27, 12:00 a.m. ET | Tommy Paul |
|---|---|---|
| -1,800 | Moneyline | +1,000 |
| -8.5 (+110) | Game spread | +8.5 (-130) |
| Over 30.5 (-110) | Total games | Under 30.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 26, 2023.
Djokovic vs Paul match prediction
The outcome here really shouldn’t be in question. We had many questions about Djokovic’s injured hamstring entering the tournament, and he’s done well to answer all of them with his performance here in Melbourne.
There have been a couple of times where he’s looked hobbled, but even those moments haven't stopped him from winning points and breaking serve. He’s looked like vintage Djokovic for the vast majority of the tournament, and I don’t think a man with no weapons like Paul can stop him here.
Prediction: Novak Djokovic (-1,700 at FanDuel)
Djokovic vs Paul best bet
Paul has been serving much better and working his opponents around the court, and he’s showcased some of his all-world defense. The issue here is that simply playing defense against Djokovic is not enough to beat him. We saw Alex De Minaur – the fastest man on tour – get annihilated by Djokovic in front of a raucous home crowd.
You need weapons to beat Djokovic, and even that’s oftentimes not enough. You need to combine weapons with expert defending and the ability to think on your feet.
Paul has one of these three components. He often plays in predictable patterns, but he’s also got no weapons. Djokovic will be the best returner he’s played yet and even against a semi-decent returner in Roberto Bautista Agut, he struggled.
Considering the mismatch here and the fact Paul has played a lot of tennis at this tournament, I think this match will be over quickly. The American has had a career-defining performance here and will leave Melbourne feeling good about where his game is at heading into the season. He sadly won’t leave with a trophy, though, or a trip to the final.
Best bet: Under 30.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)
