USA vs Wales World Cup Picks and Predictions: Wales Never Fails

In terms of FIFA world rankings, there isn’t a group at the World Cup tougher than Group B. Four teams ranked inside the Top 20 will do battle, with the dream of reaching the Round of 16 in focus.

For the United States and Wales, the journey to realizing that dream begins on Monday when the two nations face off to start their World Cup campaigns. Wales are hoping to turn in a strong performance as they participate in the tournament for the first time since 1958. Meanwhile, the Americans look to capitalize on their youth movement after missing out on the 2018 event in Russia.

Both teams know they need a result from this match with England still looming large, but will that lead to both teams playing it safe? Find out in our United States vs Wales World Cup picks and predictions for Monday, November 21. 

USA vs Wales odds

USA vs Wales picks and predictions

The United States feature one of the youngest teams in the entire tournament, but one filled with budding talent. The likes of Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, and Weston McKennie lead a squad full of players plying their trade in Europe for some of the bigger names in the sport. 

However, with youth comes inconsistency, and at no position has that been more evident than at striker. Despite giving numerous young players a chance to grab the mantle and claim the number nine spot as their own, Gregg Berhalter has yet to find a striker upon whom he can rely. 

In their two friendlies against World Cup participants Saudi Arabia and Japan this September, the USMNT managed just two total shots on goal. And over their last five matches, their only goal from an out-and-out striker has come via the penalty spot. That’s why some feel that Berhalter might set up with Reyna in a false nine, a formation and setup that the US hasn’t played in a competitive match.

There’s no issue at striker for Wales. While he might be losing the battle to Father Time and lacks the speed he once possessed, Gareth Bale is still a threat in front of goal. You don’t have to look any further than the past two weeks to see that. Despite having fewer than 10 touches in MLS Cup 2022, Bale was able to come off the bench and head home the extra-time equalizer that spurred LAFC to a comeback win via a penalty shootout. 

And when Wales needs a goal, Bale delivers. He delivered when they needed it most this summer, scoring an amazing free kick in their 2-1 win over Austria in their playoff semifinal. In their final against Ukraine, it was his deflected goal that proved the winner, sealing their return to the World Cup for the first time in 64 years. 

The United States has a bit of an issue in defense with Miles Robinson missing the tournament due to injury, and it’s one that Wales can exploit. Daniel James of Fulham provides Wales with a ton of pace at the top, and can take pressure off of their aging star while also providing him an outlet.  

That said, Wales struggle with holding on late in matches. They’ve won just one of their last seven matches, including Nations League. Grouped with Poland, the Netherlands, and Belgium in the competition, they conceded three goals in the final five minutes of regulation and stoppage time — all three of which denied them draws. 

Neither team will want to lose and face a situation against England where they would almost certainly have to win to qualify for the Round of 16. As such, I expect a low-scoring, cagey affair. However, I am hesitant to bet the draw outright given the strong possibility of Wales pulling off the upset. 

That’s why the best play for Monday’s fixture is the Asian handicap of +0.25 for Wales. You will win half your bet and push the other half if the score ends level, or win the whole thing with a Welsh victory. 

My best bet: Wales +0.25 Asian handicap (-125 at bet365)

USA vs Wales side analysis

USA finished third in CONCACAF qualifying, tied with Costa Rica but ahead on goal differential. But they’ve struggled against quality opponents. In their seven matches this year against teams participating in the World Cup, they’ve won just once. That 3-0 win over Morocco in June was also the only one of those seven matches where they managed to score a goal. 

Wales haven’t been setting the world on fire, either. But their competition has been much tougher, in fairness. Since November began, they’ve played 11 matches — six of those came against Belgium, Poland, and the Netherlands. That said, they’ve scored in 10 of those outings, and won every time they faced elimination in World Cup qualifying in that span.

Just twice have Wales and the United States played each other. The US won 2-0 in a friendly in 2003, and the two sides played to a scoreless draw almost two years ago. The US are favored in this match, but all three outcomes in the three-way line fall between 32% and 37% probability. 

USA vs Wales Over/Under analysis

The Under in this match is heavily juiced, and with reason. The USMNT hasn’t scored in six of their seven matches against World Cup opponents in 2022, and 11 of their last 14 matches against all opponents have seen two or fewer goals scored.

As for Wales, they’ve been involved in higher-scoring affairs, but they’ve not been scoring much. Wales have scored exactly one goal in eight of their last 12 matches, and failed to score in their last outing against Poland. However, seven of those 12 matches saw three or more goals scored in total.

Given the stakes in this match, combined with the scoring woes of the Yanks and the low-scoring nature of Wales, the price seems about right for the Under. That said, I’d look to parlay it or wager against both teams scoring if you’re wanting to get involved in the Total. 

USA vs Wales game info

USA vs Wales key injuries

USA: Luca de la Torre M (Questionable).
Wales: Joe Allen M (Doubtful).

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