South Korea vs Portugal World Cup Picks and Predictions: Two-Way Action as Desperation Kicks In

With their hopes of reaching the knockout stage in precarious balance, South Korea will face Portugal in their final group match of the 2022 World Cup on Friday. 

Portugal have already locked up their spot in the Round of 16 and can clinch the top spot in the group with a win or draw, but they have some injury concerns and might rotate the side a bit. Regardless of the lineup, it will be one loaded with talent and heavily favored to win the match.

Can South Korea pull off the upset and advance, or will Portugal simply be too large a giant for them to topple? We break down the action in our South Korea vs. Portugal World Cup picks and predictions for Friday, December 2.

South Korea vs Portugal odds

South Korea vs Portugal picks and predictions

After fighting back from a two-goal deficit to level the match, South Korea fell 3-2 to Ghana on matchday two. The defeat left them sitting on just one point after their 0-0 draw with Uruguay, but more importantly, put them behind Ghana heading into their toughest match of the tournament.

The Koreans have won just once in their last seven World Cup matches, tasting defeat five times in that span. If they are to win on Friday, they must do so without their Portuguese manager Paulo Bento, after he was shown a red card for dissent following the final whistle against Ghana. They will also need star man Heung-min Son to finally step up. Through two matches he has been a no-show, with just three chances created, and an xG of just 0.18 with no shots on goal.

Portugal beat Uruguay 2-0 in their second match to put themselves on six points, but they suffered a loss in the process. Left back Nuno Mendes was forced off before halftime with a thigh injury, and on Wednesday it was confirmed he will miss the remainder of the tournament. He was dealing with injury concerns coming into the match, but he was one of their best players while out there and his loss will be felt.

Mendes will be joined on the sidelines by teammates Danilo and Otavio. That said, Portugal still has plenty of weapons at their disposal. Even if manager Fernando Santos decides to rotate the squad, players like Rafael Leao and Diogo Dalot are in fine form and will slot in just fine. Whether Cristiano Ronaldo — who was denied his “hair goal” by Adidas technology proving he did not touch the cross from Bruno Fernandes against Uruguay — starts remains to be seen, but he could be rested as well.

No matter who suits up for Portugal, they’re going to be facing a desperate South Korea side with nothing to lose, who will throw bodies forward to get the win. This will be their undoing, as Portugal will look to manage the match and get the point they need, and happily pounce on South Korea with a well-paced counter-attack.

Even if they fall behind, South Korea will have no option but to keep attacking — and given the injuries and likely rotation for Portugal, I can see them giving up a goal at some point. That’s why the best bet for this match is to wager on both teams finding the back of the net in what should be a contest with plenty of shots.

My best bet: Both teams to score Yes (-125 at bet365)

South Korea vs Portugal side analysis

South Korea have one defeat and one draw thus far in the tournament. It’s why they’re decided underdogs with more money coming in on Portugal every hour. The draw is slightly preferred over South Korea, but not by much.

South Korea should have their fully fit squad for this match, aside from striker Hwang Hee-chan who has yet to play due to a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, Portugal will be without Mendes, while Danilo likely misses out with a rib fracture and Otavio is likely still out with a hamstring injury.

These two teams have met just once in World Cup play, when South Korea’s 1-0 win over Portugal in the 2002 World Cup ended their hopes of winning a trophy. Ironically enough, that was Bento’s final match with the Portuguese national team.

South Korea vs Portugal Over/Under analysis

The Over 2.5 market is favored given the stakes in this match, and the firepower on hand for Portugal. Six of Portugal’s last eight matches have seen them score at least two team goals, with four of those matches going Over the 2.5 mark.

South Korea’s last four matches have seen the total go Under on three occasions, with the one Over being the 3-2 loss to Ghana a few days ago. Five of their last nine matches have gone Over as well.

Given the need for South Korea to win, it lends itself to a higher-scoring match. There’s no draw to play for and even if they fall behind a couple of goals, the Koreans will be forced to continue to attack. Barring poor finishing it’s hard to see the Under being the play here.

South Korea vs Portugal game info

South Korea vs Portugal key injuries

South Korea: Hwang Hee-chan F (Out).
Portugal: Nuno Mendes D (Out), Danilo Pereira M (Doubtful), Otavio M (Doubtful).

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