Argentina vs Australia World Cup Picks and Predictions: Under-whelming in Round of 16

With their shaky starts to the World Cup now in the rearview mirror, Argentina and Australia collide on Saturday with a place in the quarterfinals up for grabs.

The Argentines steadied the ship after their shocking loss to Saudi Arabia with back-to-back 2-0 wins, topping Group C and quietening the fears that Lionel Messi’s last World Cup could end in an early exit.

Australia was widely written off after being thumped by France in its first game, but Graham Arnold’s side doubled down on its compact, disciplined style on the way to two impressive victories.

Find out more in our free Argentina vs Australia World Cup picks and predictions ahead of this Saturday, December 3 showdown.

Argentina vs Australia odds

Argentina vs Australia picks and predictions

For all Argentina’s relief and Australia’s joy at reaching the Round of 16, neither team arrives in red-hot scoring form. The Aussies delivered two straight 1-0 masterclasses, centered around a tireless work ethic, alert defending, and just enough of a threat at the other end. 

The Albiceleste fared slightly better (two 2-0 wins) but haven’t fully clicked. Though Lionel Scaloni’s men had ample chances to pad the score against Poland, there are still tricky decisions ahead on who should join Messi and Angel Di Maria in the front three.

Despite the disparity in star power, I see Australia’s formula being effective again on Saturday, with a swarm of defenders around Messi and a committed midfield denying passes between the lines. Argentina has had to be patient at this tournament, with goalless first halves against Mexico and Poland before breaking the deadlock.

While both teams have been critical of a schedule that puts Saturday’s kickoff so soon after their final group games ended, Argentina should eventually find a way through here — and Scaloni has an array of options off the bench if this becomes a stalemate. I just don’t see this mirroring Australia’s loss to France. The Aussies are riding high after making it this far and this contest could easily end up in a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline. 

With both defenses coming off consecutive clean sheets, I’ll be betting on the Under here as more of a value play than the Argentina moneyline.

My best bet: Under 2.5 (+100 at bet365)

Argentina vs Australia side analysis

For all Argentina’s relief and Australia’s joy at reaching the Round of 16, neither team arrives in red-hot scoring form. The Aussies delivered two straight 1-0 masterclasses, centered around a tireless work ethic, alert defending, and just enough of a threat at the other end. 

The Albiceleste fared slightly better (two 2-0 wins) but haven’t fully clicked. Though Lionel Scaloni’s men had ample chances to pad the score against Poland, there are still tricky decisions ahead on who should join Messi and Angel Di Maria in the front three.

Despite the disparity in star power, I see Australia’s formula being effective again on Saturday, with a swarm of defenders around Messi and a committed midfield denying passes between the lines. Argentina has had to be patient at this tournament, with goalless first halves against Mexico and Poland before breaking the deadlock.

While both teams have been critical of a schedule that puts Saturday’s kickoff so soon after their final group games ended, Argentina should eventually find a way through here — and Scaloni has an array of options off the bench if this becomes a stalemate. I just don’t see this mirroring Australia’s loss to France. The Aussies are riding high after making it this far and this contest could easily end up in a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline. 

With both defenses coming off consecutive clean sheets, I’ll be betting on the Under here as more of a value play than the Argentina moneyline.

Argentina vs Australia Over/Under analysis

The group stage parallels are there — a dispiriting opening loss, followed by a resilient response — but that’s where the similarities end with these two teams. I expect Argentina’s crafty midfield and dangerous attack to dominate possession, just as they did with 73% of the ball against Poland. Understandably, the Albiceleste are heavy favorites here.

Manchester City’s Julian Alvarez, who slotted the second goal past the Poles, could keep his place alongside Messi and Angel Di Maria. That would mean leaving Lautaro Martinez, yet to score at this World Cup, on the bench again, though the Inter Milan man offers fresh legs if reintroduced into the starting line-up.

The talent gap is huge, but there will be no happy-to-be-here attitude in the Australia camp, especially after pulling off the upset against Denmark in the final group game. The Aussies have already been vocal about Messi being ‘just a human’ and are unlikely to shy away from the challenge ahead.

The quick turnaround after Wednesday’s action might prompt other tweaks to the Argentina lineup, but Arnold and the Aussies don’t have that luxury. I’m expecting the same starters who held off Denmark.  

Argentina vs Australia game info

Argentina vs Australia key injuries

Argentina: No injuries to report.
Australia: Nathaniel Atkinson RB (Questionable).

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