Canada vs Uruguay Picks and Predictions: Uruguay Takes Out Frustration After Iran Loss

Canada plays a South American side for the first time in 12 years when they face Uruguay on Tuesday in their penultimate friendly before Qatar 2022. 

Tuesday’s match in Slovakia represents a massive step up in quality for John Herdman’s side, who easily swept aside hosts Qatar in a 2-0 win on Friday. 

Uruguay, ranked 13th in the world, represents an altogether stiffer challenge for the 43rd-ranked Canadians. Uruguay fell 1-0 to Iran on Friday, their first defeat in seven matches, which should galvanize Herdman’s team. Our free soccer picks and predictions dig into whether or not Canada can mount the upset.

Canada vs Uruguay odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on September 26, 2022.

Canada vs Uruguay picks and predictions

Canada’s 2-0 win over Qatar on Friday quelled worries about how the team would react to being idle since a disheartening 2-1 loss to Honduras in a CONCACAF Nations League match in mid-June. The lack of match practice combined with cancellations of two friendlies against Iran and Panama mired in controversy could have unsettled the players leading into Friday’s friendly. 

The dispute regarding Canadian players’ World Cup wages remains unresolved less than two months before their opening game against world No. 2 Belgium. However, despite the litany of off-the-field issues, Canada acquitted themselves expertly and professionally against Qatar, winning 61% of the possession and outshooting the hosts 8-2. 

Tuesday’s match offers an entirely more foreboding prospect, as the Uruguayans are flush with elite talent and seasoned pedigree. 

You’d have to roll back the clock 22 years to source the last time Canada beat a South American opponent. That win came against Colombia in the Gold Cup 2000 final, a result that will forever be regarded as one of the nation’s most important and unexpected. 

Canada’s lack of experience against South American opponents extends to other non-CONCACAF teams. In 2018, Herdman’s first game in charge, Canada beat New Zealand 1-0. It was the last time Canada played a match outside their home continent prior to Friday’s victory over Qatar. 

The last time Canada played a non-CONCACAF nation was in January 2020, a 1-0 setback to Iceland, further underpinning the heightened challenge ahead for Herdman and his coaching staff.   

Canada has shown a new-found resilience and ability to win in the face of stiff adversity during Herdman’s reign. Even without Atiba Hutchinson and Jonathan Osorio, Canada’s go-to midfield pair, Les Rouges dominated Qatar thanks to a proficient first half from stand-in pair Stephen Eustaquio and Samuel Piette.  

Herdman will most likely return to that midfield pair on Tuesday in Hutchinson and Osorio’s continued absence. 

For Canada to take anything from Tuesday’s match, they’ll need to score first. Canada has won 22 straight matches after scoring the opener and has kept a clean sheet in the last six when getting off the mark first.   

However, Uruguay will be in a sour mood after losing to Iran and should use that result as added motivation. They will be desperate to avoid consecutive defeats, which hasn’t happened in over five years. 

Herdman’s side, who will be heavily out-possessed and forced back for large portions of the match, must be lethal on the counter to steal a point. 

Uruguay should prevail somewhat comfortably, probably by a 2-0 scoreline. 

My best bet: Uruguay to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 (+250 at FanDuel)

Canada vs Uruguay side analysis

Uruguay bossed proceedings against Iran despite losing. They outshot the Iranians 16-5 and controlled 63% of possession. That, however, won’t provide any consolation for head coach Diego Alonso. 

Chock-full of upper-echelon talent, including Rodrigo Bentancur, Federico Valverde, Darwin Nunez, and long-serving Luis Suarez, La Celeste will like their chances against the up-and-coming Canadians. 

Like a collection of his predecessors, Alonso prides himself on having a highly organized, stingy defense. As a result, Uruguay have conceded just two goals in their last eight matches, which included six wins and a draw. 

They haven’t lost to a CONCACAF nation since suffering defeat against Mexico in 2016 and have outscored their last three CONCACAF opponents 8-0. The only blemish came in a 0-0 stalemate against the USA in Kansas City on June 5.  

Alonso is looking to guide Uruguay to the World Cup knockout stage for the third successive tournament.

Canada vs Uruguay Over/Under analysis

Four of Uruguay’s last six matches resulted in the Under, including two of their last three. The exception saw Uruguay explode for five against Panama, the world’s 61st-ranked nation. 

Uruguay hasn’t conceded two or more goals in their most recent 11 matches. Argentina was the last team to enjoy offensive success against Le Celeste when they broke through for three goals at home on Oct. 10, 2021. 

Six of Canada’s previous matches resulted in the Under, but two of their last three saw three or more goals. 

However, one of those Overs came against the inferior defense of Curacao, in which Canada opened the floodgates, scoring five. 

Look for Uruguay to keep a clean sheet, resulting in the Under.

Canada vs Uruguay game info

Canada vs Uruguay key injuries

Canada: Doneil Henry D (Out), Tajon Buchanan M (Doubtful), Jonathan Osorio M (Out), David Wotherspoon M (Out), Atiba Hutchinson M (Out), Alphonso Davies D (Doubtful).
Uruguay: No injuries to report.

Canada vs Uruguay weather

The temperature will be a cool 55 Fahrenheit for the evening kickoff. Winds will be a moderate 12 mph with humidity at about 76%. It should rain all afternoon in the lead-up to the match, but chances of precipitation will drop to 22% for kickoff. 

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