Less than seven months away from the 2024 US Election, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a dead heat atop the presidential odds board.
It looks like we'll almost certainly get a rematch from the last election cycle when Biden won the White House, but while Trump had been the odds-on favorite to become the president for the last few months, the odds have shifted and both are now installed at +110.
It seems that books have finally come around to the realization that Trump and Biden are virtual locks to represent the Republican and Democrat parties since other candidates have seen their odds plummet or been removed from the board entirely. That said, former first lady Michelle Obama and now Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. are still lurking in the background at +1,600.
With another clash between Trump and Biden looking inevitable, the field has narrowed, so let's look at the 2024 election odds and see who has the highest probability of becoming the next president of the United States.
2024 presidential election betting odds
To give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds of becoming the next president of the United States in 2024.
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Donald Trump |
+110 | 47.6% |
 Joe Biden |
+110 | 47.6% |
| Michelle Obama |
+1,600 | 5.9% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +1,600 | 5.9% |
| Gavin Newsom |
+2,800 | 3.4% |
| Kamala Harris |
+3,300 | 2.9% |
| Nikki Haley |
+5,000 | 2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer |
+7,000 | 1.4% |
| Hakeem Jeffries |
+10,000 | 1% |
| Elizabeth Warren |
+15,000 | 0.66% |
| Hillary Clinton |
+15,000 | 0.66% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of April 18, 2024.
Latest Presidential Election odds updates 2024
Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election
Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.
Those odds have seen a ton of movement, with Trump and Biden moving all the way to +110 while while Harris has plummeted all the way to sixth at +3,300. Michelle Obama and Robert Kennedy Jr. are just ahead of Harris at +1,600, which is due more to liability at sportsbooks than their actual chances of winning the presidency.
While Trump and Biden are firmly in control of their respective parties, there are still six other Democrats on the presidential odds board, with just one Republican (Nikki Haley at +5,000).
Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
If you thought that Donald Trump would quietly fade away after losing the 2020 election, you were very wrong. While Trump has seen his election odds ebb and flow over the last four years, he's been at the top of the board for more than a year.
Despite facing four separate trials, Trump remains wildly popular among the Republican base and has remained focused on his upcoming campaign, while his legal team looks to delay the verdicts until after Election Day.
Trump showed the hold that he has over the GOP by destroying other Republican candidates in the primaries without even bothering to take part in the debates. That said, while his MAGA brand is very much in lockstep with Republican voters, there are still doubts about whether he can win a general election.
Trump was a -110 favorite after Super Tuesday but has since moved to +110 with more recent polls indicating a close race. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in April had 41% of registered voters back Biden, with 37% picking Trump. Other polls from Morning Consult and YouGov gave Trump slim 1-point leads, while TIPP Insights have the election in a dead heat with both Trump and Biden at 38% support.
Joe Biden's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Biden's odds moved from +150 at the beginning of September to +200 in November and is now at +110 in April. For months there was value in betting on Biden since there was a significant difference between his election odds and the odds of a Democrat victory. However, that gap has shrunk with books finally accepting that he'll almost certainly remain at the head of the party in November.
Biden's current approval rating of 39%, according to FiveThirtyEight, is lower than what it was last year (42%). However, Biden's latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him a 44.6% chance of being re-elected in 2024. That's a significant bump from the 26.3% probability it was at just two months ago and is more than three points higher than Trump, who sits at 41.3%.
Despite a relatively low popularity, Biden remains more likable than Trump. However, he's viewed as a less decisive and effective leader, which is bad news with many voters dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
While the border crisis and turmoil abroad are poor optics for the Biden regime, there have been improvements on the economic front. Biden will need to address issues about illegal immigration while hoping that Trump's extreme stances will make him a tough sell for swing voters. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed Biden gaining ground in six key battleground states.
Michelle Obama's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Former First Lady Michelle Obama just won't drop off the board. She currently has the third-shortest odds at +1,600 despite not publicly showing any interest in the position and Biden still leading the party. However, there was a rumor of an Obama party takeover and despite that looking like a combination of wishful thinking and conspiracy theory, it has skewed the odds.
Those rumors were fueled by an opinion piece in the New York Post from Cindy Adams who claimed that the plan is for Biden to step aside citing health concerns and hand over reigns to Michelle at the Democratic convention in August.
This is a rumor that just won't go away and that's largely because of Biden's low popularity and the notion that the Dems need a different candidate to energize the voter base against Trump. That said, this seems like a pipe dream for leftists, and at this point in the election cycle, the Dems won't be changing horses midstream.
Robert Kennedy Jr.'s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
The 69-year-old scion of the prestigious Kennedy family, was the flavor of the month last spring when he announced he would run for the Democratic Party nomination. He surged all the way up to +900 on the presidential odds board following interviews with Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan, but it soon became apparent that many of his supporters were conservative-leaning and he had no chance of actually winning the party leadership.
After plummeting in polls, RFK Jr. announced in October that he would run as an independent and he currently sits at +1,600. Considering that no third-party candidate has even come close to being competitive in an election (Ross Perot gaining 19% of the popular vote in 1992 was the best showing from an independent in the last century), fade the polarizing Kennedy at any price.
Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Harris has seen her odds sink to +3,300 after being the favorite early on in Biden's presidency. The Smarkets exchange gives her just a 2.9% chance of winning the presidency, lower than Obama and RFK Jr.
Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and has struggled to break ground with her two biggest projects: border migration and national voting reform. Her approval rating sits at just 37.1% according to FiveThirtyEight, which is at least a massive improvement from her comically low approval rate of 29% in November of 2021.
Harris remains wildly unpopular, but if the 81-year-old Biden has any sort of health concerns heading into November, she'd be the most likely to step in on short notice.
Nikki Haley's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Nikki Haley officially dropped out of the Republican race after crushing defeats on Super Tuesday, but she remains on the election odds board as a massive longshot at +5,000. The governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 and a former ambassador to the United Nations, Haley has a national profile and plenty of political experience, which led to her running for the nomination.
Haley aimed to tap into the Never-Trumpers within the conservative base, as well as win voters across the aisle. However, members of the MAGA movement were opposed to her more moderate stances. In fact, while she won Vermont and D.C., that only reinforced her reputation as an "establishment conservative", with right-wingers deriding her victory in the political swamp of Washington.
With Haley still on the board, oddsmakers are likely bracing for liability in case Trump's legal issues catch up to him or he has a health scare — after all, at 77 years old, he isn't much younger than Biden.
Covers US presidential election betting tools
- 2024 Republican nominee odds
- 2024 Democratic nominee odds
- 2024 Donald Trump presidential election odds
- 2024 Joe Biden presidential election odds
- 2024 Michelle Obama presidential election odds
- Donald Trump conviction odds
- Donald Trump frequently asked questions
- Joe Biden frequently asked questions
- Best political betting sites (Canada and International)
2024 presidential election Republican candidates odds
It may seem hard to believe given his mounting legal challenges, but Donald Trump remains firmly in the driver's seat to earn his party's nomination yet again.
| Nomination Winner | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -5,000 | 98% |
| Nikki Haley | +1,400 | 6.7% |
| Ryan Binkley | +30,000 | 0.3% |
Take a deeper dive into this year's heated race with our Republican party nominee odds page.
2024 presidential election Democratic candidates odds
| Nomination Winner | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -500 | 83.3% |
| Gavin Newsom | +900 | 10% |
| Michelle Obama | +1,000 | 9.1% |
| Kamala Harris | +1,200 | 7.7% |
| Dean Phillips | +5,000 | 2% |
| Elizabeth Warren | +5,000 | 2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +5,000 | 2% |
| Hillary Clinton | +8,000 | 1.2% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +12,500 | 0.8% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +15,000 | 0.7% |
| Susan Rice | +20,000 | 0.5% |
| Pete Buttigieg | +30,000 | 0.3% |
| Marianne Williamson | +40,000 | 0.2% |
Joe Biden's 2024 re-election odds
Barring ill-health, Joe Biden is a lock to secure his party's nomination at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago this summer. However, winning the general election is a different matter altogether. The 81-year-old has consistently trailed Trump on the odds board since December 2023 despite overseeing America's steady economic growth and steering the country away from a widely anticipated recession. In spite of his efforts, only 39% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as the nation's commander-in-chief.
Take a deeper dive into this year's hotly contested race with our Democratic party nominee odds page.
Presidential election odds: non-political candidates
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Tucker Carlson | +30,000 | 0.3% |
| Mark Cuban | +50,000 | 0.2% |
| Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson | +100,000 | 0.1% |
| Oprah Winfrey | +100,000 | 0.1% |
| Kanye West | +100,000 | 0.1% |
Odds as of April 5, 2024.
2024 president prediction
At +110, current president Joe Biden remains the best bet despite a tumultuous first term in office. Short of a Mitch McConnell-esque health breakdown, Biden is almost definitely going to be the Democrat candidate and the Dems are now slight favorites at -115 to win the White House. Trump might still have a slight lead in most polls, but that lead is shrinking and his odds are way too short when you consider that legal complications still stand in the way.
Winning party odds
| Gender | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Republican | -105 | 51.2% |
| Democrats | -115 | 53.5% |
| Independent | +2,500 | 3.8% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of April 18, 2024.
Gender of next presidential election winner
| Gender | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Male | -5,000 | 98% |
| Female | +1,200 | 7.7% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of April 18, 2024.
With Biden and Trump now firmly in charge of their respective parties, it's surprising that these odds are even on the board. Not only has the United States never had a female president, but only one has even secured a party nomination — Hillary Clinton who lost to Trump in 2016.
That said, Biden is 81 years old while Trump will soon be 77 and is defending himself in multiple legal trials. If either of them have health or legal issues crop up, there is a very slim chance that they could be replaced and the most likely replacements for both would be women, with Harris likely replacing Biden and Haley stepping in for the GOP.
However, even if Harris or Haley ended up replacing the male candidates for their party, they would be in a very tough position to win the election.
US presidential election winners
| Year | Winner | Electoral votes | Popular % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1789 | George Washington | 69 | NA |
| 1792 | George Washington | 132 | NA |
| 1796 | John Adams | 71 | NA |
| 1800 | Thomas Jefferson | 73 | NA |
| 1804 | George Washington | 162 | NA |
| 1808 | James Madison | 122 | NA |
| 1812 | James Madison | 128 | NA |
| 1816 | James Monroe | 183 | NA |
| 1820 | James Monroe | 231 | NA |
| 1824 | John Quincy Adams | 84 | 30.9 |
| 1828 | Andrew Jackson | 178 | 56.0 |
| 1832 | Andrew Jackson | 219 | 54.2 |
| 1836 | Martin Van Buren | 170 | 50.8 |
| 1840 | William Henry Harrison | 234 | 52.9 |
| 1844 | James K. Polk | 170 | 49.5 |
| 1848 | Zachary Taylor | 163 | 47.3 |
| 1852 | Franklin Pierce | 254 | 50.8 |
| 1856 | James Buchanan | 174 | 45.3 |
| 1860 | Abraham Lincoln | 180 | 39.3 |
| 1864 | Abraham Lincoln | 212 | 55.0 |
| 1868 | Ulysses S. Grant | 214 | 56.7 |
| 1872 | Ulysses S. Grant | 286 | 55.6 |
| 1876 | Rutherford B. Hayes | 184 | 48.0 |
| 1880 | James A. Garfield | 214 | 48.3 |
| 1884 | Grover Cleveland | 219 | 48.5 |
| 1888 | Benjamin Harrison | 233 | 47.8 |
| 1892 | Grover Cleveland | 277 | 46.1 |
| 1896 | William McKinley | 271 | 51.0 |
| 1900 | William McKinley | 292 | 51.7 |
| 1904 | Theodore Roosevelt | 336 | 56.4 |
| 1908 | William Howard Taft | 321 | 51.6 |
| 1912 | Woodrow Wilson | 435 | 41.8 |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson | 277 | 49.2 |
| 1920 | Warren G. Harden | 404 | 60.3 |
| 1924 | Calvin Coolidge | 382 | 54.1 |
| 1928 | Herbert Hoover | 444 | 58.0 |
| 1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 472 | 57.3 |
| 1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 523 | 60.2 |
| 1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 449 | 54.7 |
| 1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 432 | 53.3 |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman | 303 | 49.4 |
| 1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 442 | 54.9 |
| 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 457 | 57.4 |
| 1960 | John F. Kennedy | 303 | 49.7 |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 486 | 51.1 |
| 1968 | Richard M. Nixon | 301 | 43.4 |
| 1972 | Richard M. Nixon | 520 | 60.7 |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | 297 | 50.0 |
| 1980 | Ronald W. Reagan | 489 | 50.4 |
| 1984 | Ronald W. Reagan | 525 | 58.8 |
| 1988 | George H.W. Bush | 426 | 53.4 |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | 370 | 43.0 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | 379 | 49.2 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | 271 | 47.9 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | 286 | 50.7 |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | 365 | 52.9 |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | 332 | 50.9 |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | 304 | 46.0 |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | 306 | 51.3 |
Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).
US presidential election trends
- Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
- The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
- A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
- James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.
2020 US Electoral map
This map visualizes the distribution of electoral votes for each state in the 2020 US Election. Republican wins are denoted by red states, while Democratic wins are represented by blue states. Explore the map to discover both popular vote and electoral vote figures by hovering over each state.
2020 voter turnout map
This interactive map provides insight into the voter turnout rates during the 2020 US Election. Hover over individual states to reveal precise percentage figures, with darker colors indicating higher voter turnout rates. Minnesota led all state with an impressive 80% turnout, while only 55% of eligible voters in Oklahoma showed up to the polls to cast a ballot.
2024 US presidential election key upcoming dates
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| July 15-18, 2024 | Republican National Convention |
| August 19-22, 2024 | Democratic National Convention |
| November 5, 2024 | Election Day |
Betting on the election in the United States
No U.S. states allow for election betting, so legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans.
Betting on the US election from Canada
Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.
US election betting odds FAQs
Yes. Some betting sites provide odds on the U.S. presidential election, but betting on elections is not legal in the United States and state-regulated books do not offer these odds.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden are tied atop the latest odds board at +110.
Betting odds are one of the indicators of public sentiment regarding the outcome of elections. When people place bets on political events, they are expressing their opinions and predictions based on the information available to them at the time. However, while betting odds can provide insights into public sentiment, they are not infallible predictors. Political events are complex, and unexpected developments can occur, leading to shifts in public opinion. Additionally, betting odds are influenced by the amount of money wagered on each outcome.
Betting odds for a presidential election are a way of expressing the probability of a particular outcome happening. The odds represent the bookmakers' assessment of the likelihood of a candidate winning, and are presented in different formats, including fractional odds, decimal odds, and moneyline odds. lower odds indicate a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds suggest a lower probability. It's important to note that odds can change based on betting activity, polling data, and various other factors. They reflect the bookmakers' assessment of the situation and the balance of bets placed by the public.
