After months of speculation and forecasting the 2022 U.S. midterm elections are taking place today. Control of the U.S. Congress is at stake and the Republican Party could win in a landslide according to the latest odds available.
As of right now, odds are indicating we will see a Republican House and Senate, with bettors able to grab that particular wagering option at -250. That's a big change from late summer, when it was available at -162. On the other hand, you can get the Democratic Party to get both at +2,500.
U.S. election odds are always a hot topic with plenty on the line. Below we provide the odds for each outcome of the midterms taking place on Tuesday, November 8.
Odds for the 2022 US midterm elections
Action on the 2022 midterms is heating up as Americans head to the polls today. The Republican Party is favored to take the house and take more than 50 seats in the Senate.
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Republican House & Republican Senate | -250 |
| Republican House & Democratic Senate | +230 |
| Democratic House & Republican Senate | +1,100 |
| Democratic House & Democratic Senate | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook Ontario on November 8, 2022.
Odds to win the U.S. House of Representatives
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Republican Majority | -1,600 |
| Democrat Majority | +800 |
Odds courtesy of William Hill on November 7, 2022.
Odds Analysis for the 2022 US midterm elections
With Joe Biden fumbling his presidency amidst a struggling economy and rising fears about crime, a red wave has been predicted for months with most expecting the Republican Party to take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in four years.
That said, the Senate remains much closer with many political pundits considering it a coin-flip.
In fact, FiveThirtyEight currently gives the GOP an 84% chance of winning the House but a more modest 59% chance of winning the Senate (a number that sat at 50% just a week ago).
The GOP need a net gain of just one seat to give them control of the chamber and there are likely only a handful of competitive seats which will tilt the balance of power. Four of them (Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire) are held by the Dems, with one held by the Republicans (Pennsylvania).
Arizona and New Hampshire are strongly expected to stay blue but if the Dems lose Georgia or Nevada, they would need to swing Pennsylvania.
That likely makes Georgia and Pennsylvania the biggest tipping points and right now the Republicans are expected to win both with bet365 installing them at -200 (66.7% win probability) to take back Georgia and -150 (60%) to retain Pennsylvania.
However, oddsmakers might be a tad too optimistic about GOP candidate Herschel Walker's chances of winning Georgia with his opponent Raphael Warnock performing slightly better among registered voters and independents in a recent poll. Walker is a former NFL player and college football legend at UGA but he has faced plenty of criticism for his personal actions which are at odds with his politics.
Recent Republican gains on polarizing topics such as abortion and education might actually have ignited a push for the liberal side with record early voter turnout in several battlezone states including Georgia.
If the Senate is as tight as analysts believe, then there might be value in backing a "Republican House & Democratic Senate" at +230. That bet has already seen movement since it was sitting at +300 less than 24 hours ago.
Historical US midterm election results and seat changes
| Year | President | House Seats | Senate Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1934 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | +9 | +9 |
| 1938 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | -71 | -6 |
| 1942 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | -55 | -9 |
| 1946 | Harry S. Truman | -45 | -12 |
| 1950 | Harry S. Truman | -29 | -6 |
| 1954 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | -18 | -1 |
| 1958 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | -48 | 13 |
| 1962 | John F. Kennedy | -4 | +3 |
| 1966 | Lyndon B. Johnson | -47 | -4 |
| 1970 | Richard Nixon | -12 | +2 |
| 1974 | Gerald Ford | -48 | -5 |
| 1978 | Jimmy Carter | -15 | -3 |
| 1982 | Ronald Reagan | -26 | +1 |
| 1986 | Ronald Reagan | -5 | -8 |
| 1990 | George Bush | -8 | -1 |
| 1994 | Bill Clinton | -52 | -8 |
| 1998 | Bill Clinton | +5 | 0 |
| 2002 | George W. Bush | +8 | +2 |
| 2006 | George W. Bush | -30 | -6 |
| 2010 | Barack Obama | -63 | -6 |
| 2014 | Barack Obama | -13 | -9 |
| 2018 | Donald Trump | -41 | +2 |
2024 US election betting odds over time
Legal election betting in the United States
No U.S. states have legal election betting, so regulated betting sites don't offer election odds to Americans. However, bettors in other countries bet on election odds.
Legal election betting in Ontario
Sports bettors are legally allowed to bet on the 2024 U.S. election at applicable sports books that offer odds for it.
US election betting odds FAQs
Yes. Some betting sites provide odds on the U.S. presidential election, but betting on elections is not legal in the United States and state-regulated books do not offer these odds.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden are tied atop the latest odds board at +110.
Betting odds are one of the indicators of public sentiment regarding the outcome of elections. When people place bets on political events, they are expressing their opinions and predictions based on the information available to them at the time. However, while betting odds can provide insights into public sentiment, they are not infallible predictors. Political events are complex, and unexpected developments can occur, leading to shifts in public opinion. Additionally, betting odds are influenced by the amount of money wagered on each outcome.
Betting odds for a presidential election are a way of expressing the probability of a particular outcome happening. The odds represent the bookmakers' assessment of the likelihood of a candidate winning, and are presented in different formats, including fractional odds, decimal odds, and moneyline odds. lower odds indicate a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds suggest a lower probability. It's important to note that odds can change based on betting activity, polling data, and various other factors. They reflect the bookmakers' assessment of the situation and the balance of bets placed by the public.
