The injuries are stacking up, but so are the wins for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who won yesterday as -105 road dogs in Minnesota and now face a back-to-back Pittsburgh Penguins team who they’ve seen twice already this month. The Buds enter Saturday night as +110 dogs, which is just the third time this year they’ve been plus money on the moneyline.
Still missing four starting defensemen and turning to their backup in net, does the Leafs’ streak of getting at least one point in seven games stop tonight vs. a Pittsburgh team that has ripped off five straight wins and handed the Leafs their last loss in regulation?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins best odds
Maple Leafs vs Penguins picks and predictions
Both teams are on the back end of a traveling back-to-back and will be starting their No.2 goalies, while the Leafs are decimated with injuries on the blue line: this game is screaming Over 6.5.
Erik Kallgren will start in net for the Leafs tonight. He gave up three goals in 22 shots to the Pens just 10 days ago in a 4-2 Toronto loss. That game also featured two important pieces that the Leafs won’t have tonight in Morgan Rielly and Jordie Benn. Casey DeSmith will also get the nod for the home side, and he faced the Leafs just two weeks ago in a 5-2 Toronto win where he gave up four goals on 32 shots.
Each team is quite familiar with both starting backups, which isn’t always the case when No.2s start, and it’s giving me even more reason to like the Over tonight.
In the previous two meetings over the last two weeks, only one goal was scored on the power play, giving this game a much safer floor when it comes to projecting scoring chances. Anything on the power play tonight is just a bonus.
The Leafs have also had the benefit of playing with a lead of late, which has protected their wounded defense as Sheldon Keefe can get his forwards to focus on protecting the net. However, if the Pens get the early lead, Toronto will be forced to open up, which will expose their backup goalie and undersized and inexperienced blue line, creating much more favorable conditions for the Over here, as well.
Finally, the price is right here at just -115 to the Over. I think this should be closer to -125 or -130 considering the talent in net and the familiarity factor both teams have with each other. Both of the totals in the previous two meetings this month closed shorter than today’s -115 odds. Each of those games featured a No. 1 goalie in net and neither team was playing back-to-back.
My best bet: Over 6.5 (-115 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Penguins moneyline analysis
Bettors hit the Penguins overnight as the Leafs opened at -105 but were bet down to as long as +115 by Saturday morning.
These two teams met 10 days ago in Pittsburgh with the Pens closing as +100 home dogs. The roughly 35-point swing in price has a lot to do with the injuries on the Leafs’ blue line as Toronto will enter this game down their Top 3 defensemen in Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, and Jake Muzzin as well as No.5/6 Jordie Benn. Toronto will also be starting backup Kallgren who is likely moving the moneyline as well.
The roster the Leafs will be fielding today is not great, but is reflected in the price, more so than yesterday, in my opinion.
The Leafs have played surprisingly decent with the wounded roster and have taken five of a possible six points over their last three games. They have, however, lost the expected goal battle in both their most-recent wins, but this team is finding ways to get two points.
A lot of that has been thanks to the play in net by Matt Murray, however, and with the No.1 playing yesterday, the Leafs will be down to their backup tonight. Kallgren has five losses in his last seven starts and has accounted for six of the team’s 10 total losses. He has a sub .900 save percentage over those last seven games and is likely a big reason this moneyline is moving in favor of the Pens.
Pittsburgh has been a streaky team all season, but is currently riding a hot streak. The Penguins have won five straight, outscoring their opponents 20 to 10 in the process, and have the best penalty kill in the month of November. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a power-play goal in six straight games, which could prove a big role in today’s outcome, as the Leafs are reliant on their power play and still one of the lower-scoring teams at 5-on-5, ranking 21st in goals/60 at even strength.
Pittsburgh will also turn to backup DeSmith, as Tristan Jarry took the 4-1 win in Philadelphia yesterday. DeSmith is the better of the backups today but the Leafs did tag the goalie for four goals on 32 shots in a meeting just two weeks ago in Pittsburgh.
Overnight bettors got the best price on this moneyline and dried up most of the value. The Leafs are incredibly thin on the blue line but they have shown they can still play a structured system that has been tough to ignore. The Leafs should be losing but are finding ways to win. I’m not betting against them tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins Over/Under analysis
Without their best player in Murray, the Leafs could be heading for an Over game tonight. They’ve had the luxury of late playing with the lead but if this team has to play catchup, it could turn into a much looser game.
Right now, thanks to the injuries on defense, the Toronto forward groups have done an excellent job of helping the back end. If Pittsburgh gets the lead early — something it’s done in 13 of its 21 games — it could force Toronto to open up offensively which will also make them weaker on the back end.
Add in a game with a pair of backup goalies who sport GAAs above 2.85, and we could see another seven-goal game like the last meeting that saw a total of 69 shots, with all seven goals being scored at even strength. That game also finished with 7.35 expected goals.
The Over 6.5 currently sits at -115 across the board but I think there are still 10 points that this can grow and close around -125.
Both of these offenses have been getting production from the top lines of late, as Mitch Marner is riding a 15-game point streak (20 points over the stretch), while John Tavares, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander are all scoring at least a point per game this month. The Pens also have six skaters with at least four goals this month (12 games) led by Sidney Crosby who has seven goals and 10 assists over that stretch.
With both teams on the backend of a back-to-back, a pair of No.2 goalies starting, and the injuries to the Leafs’ blue line, I’m not expecting a 2-1 game tonight and am happy to get down on the Over 6.5 at -115.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins betting trend to know
The Over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Pittsburgh. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Penguins.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, November 26, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Penguins key injuries
