Blues vs Lightning Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Tampa Turfs Visitors' PK

The Lightning are ready to strike, and their prowess with the man advantage will be key tonight against a Blues team that's struggled to kill power plays. See why our NHL picks are tabbing a comfy home win for the Bolts.

Daniel Dobish
Nov 25, 2022 • 14:19 ET • 4 min read
Nikita Kucherov Steven Stamkos
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Blues and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Friday night for the first of two regular-season matchups.

The Blues head to Amalie Arena in Tampa looking for much better results than last time out, when St. Louis was pounded 6-2 by the Buffalo Sabres to kick off a three-game road trip. That setback snapped an impressive seven-game winning streak.

The Lightning also saw a winning streak end last time out, falling 5-3 at Amalie against the red-hot Boston Bruins. Tampa Bay headed into that game with a four-game win streak in tow, so each of these teams have been playing very good hockey as of late.

Which of these previously red-hot teams will be able to get back into the win column? We’ll discuss in our NHL picks and predictions for Blues vs. Lightning on Friday, November 25.

Blues vs Lightning best odds

Blues vs Lightning picks and predictions

If you’re a fan of goaltending, this game will be a treat for you. Jordan Binnington (9-6-0, 2.98 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (7-6-1, 3.00 GAA, .903 SV%) are each confirmed to start. While their overall numbers aren’t terribly impressive, each tendy has been a major reason for their respective teams’ recent hot streaks.

Binnington was torched for the six goals in Buffalo on 32 shots, losing that one, but he had allowed two or fewer goals in the five previous outings and won six of his past seven starts overall.

Vasilevskiy, the 2019 Vezina Trophy winner, was roughed up for five goals by the B’s on just 29 shots at home last time out. But, prior to that, he had won three in a row against the Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, and Washington Capitals, allowing just six goals on 94 shots. He’s starting to round into that Vezina form after a slow start by his standards, and that’s scary for the remainder of the NHL.

The Blues have struggled to score goals this season, going for just 2.9 goals per game to rank No. 24 in the league. However, the offense has come alive lately, lighting the lamp 32 times across the past eight outings, or at a 4.0 gpg clip.

The power play has been decent for the Blues all season, performing at a 22.9% clip, good for No. 11 in the NHL. That will be the difference in this game — if St. Louis can draw some goals. If it goes the other way, that’s not a good sign, as the Blues have managed just a 70.7% mark on the penalty kill, which ranks third-to-last in the NHL.

That kill will be in trouble against a Lightning team hitting nearly one out of every four times on the power play, or 24.7%, which is in the Top 10.

St. Louis has won three of the past four games on the road, but is just 3-5-0 across the past eight away from home. Tampa Bay gets it done here, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lightning double the Blues up by a score like 4-2, making the puck line play very attractive.

My best bet: Lightning -1.5 (+135 at DraftKings)

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Blues vs Lightning moneyline analysis

The last time the Blues were an underdog, they were able to cash on the puck line in Colorado on Nov. 14, as well prior to that in Vegas on Nov. 12. However, St. Louis is just 2-4 in the previous six outings as an underdog on the puck line.

The Lightning barely survived in Nashville in the last instance as a favorite, winning 3-2 in overtime this past Saturday. However, as a favorite at home, Tampa Bay has covered the puck line in four of the past seven.

The Blues have been hot with seven wins in the past eight tries, but St. Louis is 1-5 in the past six games against Eastern Conference foes, while dropping four in a row against Atlantic Division opponents.

The Lightning have picked up five wins in the past six games against Western Conference opponents, while hitting at a 37-16 clip at home, or a .698 winning percentage.

Blues vs Lightning Over/Under analysis

The Blues roll in on a 4-1 Over run, while the Lightning have cashed the Over at a 7-3-1 pace across the previous 11 games overall.

Tampa Bay has posted three or more goals in five straight games, too, while hitting the mark in 10 of the past 12 games, so they’re going to light the lamp frequently.

St. Louis scored at least three goals in each of the victories during its seven-game win streak, while allowing 3.8 goals per game across the past 14 outings. Despite the goaltending, this should be a high-scoring game, and an Over 6 play (-115 at BetMGM) isn’t a bad parlay chance with the Lightning on the puck line.

Blues vs Lightning betting trend to know

The home team has won four of the past five games in this series, while the Over has connected in four of the previous five meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs Lightning.

Blues vs Lightning game info

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Date: Friday, November 25, 2022
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

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