Blues vs Islanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sorokin, Home Isles Prove Too Tough

The St. Louis Blues are struggling in a variety of areas and now get one of the toughest road tests in hockey with a matchup against the Isles at UBS Arena. We break down the matchup and provide the best bet in our NHL betting picks below.

Dec 6, 2022 • 11:31 ET • 4 min read
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

After taking the 6-4 loss as a +160 road dog yesterday vs. the Rangers, the St. Louis Blues will be looking to snap a four-game skid vs. the waiting New York Islanders (-170) tonight, who is one of the stingiest home teams in hockey with a 2.15 GAA on home ice this season.

With the Blues likely turning to Thomas Greiss, the Isles will have a massive advantage between the pipes. Should bettors be looking to take the Islanders in regulation tonight at UBS Arena?

Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Blues vs. Islanders.

Blues vs Islanders best odds

Blues vs Islanders picks and predictions

Only the Jets and Bruins have a better GAA at home this season than the Islanders. The reason for that is simple: Ilya Sorokin. The third-year goalie has a 1.67 goals against average and .967 save percentage at home this season across nine games. He is the current betting favorite for the Vezina trophy and comes into tonight’s matchup in great form having not allowed more than two goals in five straight starts.

Sorokin could be playing with the lead early and often tonight as the Blues dropped their fourth straight game last night vs. the Rangers last night and will likely turn to backup Thomas Greiss who has a 3.57 GAA over seven games this season. He'll be playing his former team that knows his tendencies well.

The Islanders are no offensive juggernaut but if the Blues continue to be generous and Sorokin can play to his current form, I can’t see the Blues staying close if the home side scores four or more. Over its last seven games, St. Louis is allowing 5.19 goals per game and each of its last three opponents has scored six goals. 

Add in a St. Louis penalty kill that has allowed seven goals in its last 14 kills and the Islanders should have plenty of opportunities to score while Sorokin and New York will make things tough for the visitors playing its second game in as many nights.

The Islanders are a perfect 6-0 SU when leading after the first period and 9-0 SU when leading after the second period. 

My best betIslanders 3-way moneyline (-105 at bet365)

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Blues vs Islanders moneyline analysis

The Islanders opened at -157 but moved to -170 in the early hours this morning. Bettors can’t trust the Blues right now who played last night — a 6-4 loss to the Rangers — and are giving up over 5.00 goals per game in their last seven.

The Blues have played a tough stretch of opponents of late, but teams are finding no issues running up the score vs. St. Louis, who is riding a four-game losing skid. Goaltending and special teams have been soft spots for tonight’s visitors and with Jordan Binnington going last night, former Islander Thomas Greiss will likely get the nod.

Greiss has two wins across four starts, but both came as 5-4 victories. The St. Louis goalie has a -0.130 GSAx/60 this season, which isn’t awful for a low-volume backup but that number really does show why the Blues have the fourth-worst goals above expected in hockey.

If St. Louis is going to concede three or more again today for the seventh straight game, it will be tough for the Blues to mount a comeback vs. the Vezina betting favorite in Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin has been even better at home with a 2.15 GAA on home ice. New York just doesn’t concede many goals with the last change.

The Islanders are also a great team with the lead and are 9-0 SU when entering the third period with a lead and 6-0 SU when leading after 20 minutes. 

The Blues have needed to score four or more goals to get two points of late and that is very improbable tonight vs. one of the stingiest home teams in all of hockey.

Blues vs Islanders Over/Under analysis

With the high-scoring games the Blues have been playing of late, bettors are looking at a total of 6 today and not the usual 5.5 total New York sees at home. Across their 13 home games, the Islanders are 6-7 O/U and averaging 5.38 total goals at home, which is the third-lowest combined average total in hockey.

The Blues are 15-8-2 to the Over this season one of the highest Over rates in hockey and are the main reason this total is at 6 and not 5.5. They’re 8-2 to the Over across their last 10 games but books have actually been very low with St. Louis totals of late as they have seen totals of 5.5 and 6 in eight of their last 10. 

With how well the Islanders have been suppressing goals at home, bettors who are looking to hit an Over might want to look at an Islanders’ team total Over 3.5 that can be had for plus money. In its 25 games, St. Louis' opponents have scored four or more goals 14 times and in 12 of their 14 losses. 

With the back-to-back for the Blues, them allowing four or more in seven straight, and turning to a weak backup in Greiss, I’d prefer to hit the Islanders’ team total Over 3.5 than the full game Over 6. 

Blues vs Islanders betting trend to know

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs Islanders.

Blues vs Islanders game info

Location: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
Date: Tuesday, December 6, 2022
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Midwest, MSGSN

Blues vs Islanders key injuries

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