The NFL season is waning fast, as the calendar has flipped to December. Dreams will be crushed and realized in the regular season’s stretch run, those of bettors included.
Let’s try to get lucky in Week 13 and hitch our wagon to the Commanders and Chiefs in both of these parlay plays. I’ll attack those two games in two different ways, as I outline below.
Week 13 NFL parlay picks
- Commanders ML (-125) + Chiefs ML (-130) = +218
- [6.5-POINT TEASER] Titans +11, Seahawks -0.5, Chargers +7.5, Commanders +4, Chiefs +5 = +350
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Commanders moneyline (-125) + Chiefs moneyline (-130) = +218 at PointsBet
Commanders moneyline (-125)
The Commanders’ defense should squash the Giants’ offense en route to a road win on Sunday afternoon.
Washington has limited its opponents to 15.4 points per game over its last seven tilts, in which it went 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS. This unit could be further strengthened in this spot if former Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young makes his season debut.
New York running back Saquon Barkley has been slowed down considerably after a fine start to 2022, totaling only 61 rushing yards over his last two contests. Meanwhile, Commanders rookie rusher Brian Robinson Jr. is gaining momentum with each successive week, as he’s fresh off a career-best 105 rushing yards against the Falcons in Week 12.
Robinson has a far easier matchup on Sunday with Big Blue’s 26th-ranked rushing defense, which is allowing 138.9 yards per game. By contrast, Washington is eighth at stopping the run, with just 108.4 yards allowed per game.
In addition to Barkley’s struggles, the injuries are piling up for the Giants. Wide receivers Darius Slayton and Richie James, tight end Daniel Bellinger, and linemen Joshua Ezeudu and Jon Feliciano are all considered questionable.
The point spread is small, but we’ll just ignore it and sacrifice a few cents of juice to get down to a straight-up victory by any margin for the Commanders.
Chiefs moneyline (-130)
It’s rare to see the Chiefs available at such a generous price on the moneyline, and over a Bengals team that’s proved vulnerable in its quest to get back to the Super Bowl no less. Bettors shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
Patrick Mahomes — recently announced as AFC Offensive Player of the Month — extended his winning streak to 26 games in the months of November and December with a double-digit triumph over the ailing Super Bowl champion Rams last week. Mahomes has now thrown for at least 320 yards in six straight games, and Kansas City has averaged 27.8 points per game in that span. Cincinnati — which is 15th in passing defense this year (216.1 yards allowed per game) – could be his latest victim.
The Bengals have won three in a row, but they faced less-than-stellar competition in two of those games (Panthers, Steelers), and scraped by the Titans in Week 12, 20-16. The Chiefs’ defense has held opposing clubs to 17 points or fewer in three of its last four games, and when Joe Burrow & Co. have failed to exceed that mark this season, they’re 0-3.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: [6.5-POINT TEASER] Titans +11, Commanders +4, Seahawks -0.5, Chiefs +5, Chargers +7.5 = +350 at DraftKings
Titans +11
The bloom is off the rose with the Eagles — once the last undefeated team in football — as they went 1-3 ATS in the month of November, including a straight-up loss to the Commanders in Week 10. Philly’s listed at their lowest ATS odds since Week 2, but we’ll grab some extra points with the visiting Titans to kick off this teaser.
Derrick Henry remains Tennessee’s biggest threat on offense, even as his rushing output has slowed down. He’s averaged only 59.3 rushing yards over his last three efforts, but has added an average of 46 receiving yards in that span for a total of 105 scrimmage yards per contest. Henry stands a good chance of getting back on the beam with his legs, as he takes on an Eagles defense that’s surrendered 132.4 rushing yards per game since Week 5.
Meanwhile, the Titans allowed over 100 rushing yards in a game for just the third time this season last week. They should neutralize Miles Sanders and attack Jalen Hurts, who has gone below 200 passing yards in three straight affairs.
Commanders +4
The Commanders defense should ensure the Giants stay grounded in Week 13. The Washington offense should be content to ride Robinson and kill clock throughout. But in case of a fluke play that turns a low-scoring game on its ear, it’s nice to have over a field goal’s worth of insurance with the Commanders.
Seahawks -0.5
The Seahawks have dropped two in a row to fall out of first place in the NFC West, but that’s nothing compared to the free-falling Rams, who have lost five straight games to sink to last in the division. It would have been unthinkable prior to Week 1 that Seattle would be favored by a touchdown in this game, but the line seems fair now. We’ll just tease it in our favor and get it down to what’s essentially a win bet.
The Rams are considering shutting down Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald with only a few weeks left in what’s been an incredibly disappointing defense of their Super Bowl crown. The L.A. offense sagged without the first two stars last week, mustering a mere 189 yards against the Chiefs in a double-digit defeat.
The absence of Donald — in line to miss his first game since 2017 here — would make Geno Smith’s life that much easier. The Smith-to-DK Metcalf connection should be strong in this spot against the Rams’ 20th-ranked pass defense (226.1 yards allowed per game).
Chiefs +5
The Chiefs are a great bet to beat the Bengals this week and avenge their loss in last year’s AFC Championship Game. Kansas City — winners of five straight — have only lost two games in 2022, one to the classy Bills, and the other to the Colts via a slew of bad luck and timing. Getting over four points with them in this parlay is even better.
Chargers +7.5
Six of the last seven games pitting the Chargers against the Raiders have been one-score affairs, so the teaser really works wonders for L.A. backers in this spot.
The Raiders are dubious favorites, even after their overtime triumph over the Seahawks, as they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played in December. Meanwhile, the Chargers have covered in five of their last six road tilts.
Justin Herbert continues to carry this Chargers team, accumulating 554 passing yards over his last two contests with five touchdown passes. He should manhandle a Raiders defense that’s 26th in preventing the pass in 2022 (253 yards allowed per game).
Derek Carr & Co. simply haven’t scored enough this year, their 40-point performance against Seattle last week notwithstanding. They scored 22, 20, 20, and 0 points over their prior four affairs. Execution in the red zone has had a lot to do with that, as they’ve scored a touchdown in only 50% of their red-zone possessions, 25th in the NFL.
