With bettors forgetting what the Eagles’ full passing game looks like thanks to some very beneficial game scripts of late, there is one pass-catcher who is flying under the radar, and some books are slow to move his Super Bowl player prop markets to where they should be.
I'm making my Super Bowl predictions about Eagles wideout Quez Watkins now to secure a great price — here's where bettors should lean regarding Watkins.
Super Bowl 57 prop odds: Quez Watkins receptions
The odds below represent the best odds available for this Super Bowl props market from regulated sportsbooks in your region.
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Super Bowl 57 Quez Watkins receptions pick
- Quez Watkins Over 1.5 receptions (+125 at PointsBet)
Pick made on February 1, 2023.
We haven’t gotten to see much of the Philadelphia passing game this postseason, as the Eagles built up an early 28-0 lead vs the Giants in the Divisional Round, then played against a service academy-style offense in the NFC Championship game vs the 49ers.
The extremely positive game scripts have kept Quez Watkins’ role minimal this postseason. But we could see a lot more from the Eagles’ No. 3 receiver vs this Kansas City pass defense, and he's paying decent plus-money odds for two or more catches.
Watkins has run just 23 routes in the postseason across two games, but averaged 20.7 per game over the season with a 14.3% target share.
Between Weeks 8 and 18, Watkins saw at least two targets in each game that Jalen Hurts started, and averaged 2.9 catches per game – hitting the Over 1.5 receptions in all but one of those matches.
Of all the pass-catchers in the Super Bowl, only Kadarius Toney had a bigger increase in targets per route run over the final eight weeks of the season than Watkins, who saw a 4.5% increase.
Watkins was priced as high as +110 for his Over 1.5 receptions vs the 49ers, and his Super Bowl odds have moved to as short as -110. However, PointsBet is slow to follow the market, offering +125 for the Over. This is roughly 25 points off the market average, and is a great number to hit early. I’d still play this number to even money, as this is better than a 50/50 play.
His Over 13.5 yards (-115) is also worth a long look here, but again, PointsBet is giving bettors a 10.5 total as of Wednesday. THE BLITZ has Watkins projected for nearly 20 yards, and at 10.5, the wide receiver could easily top this total in one reception.
Ultimately, at the plus-money price of +125, I’m taking the Over 1.5 receptions. But I would likely pivot to the Over 13.5 yards once his reception market falls to below even money.
Once again, having multiple books makes a huge difference in pricing for bettors.
