NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Rodgers Ready for Takeoff with Jets

With Aaron Rodgers' debut for the New York Jets shattered by a Week 1 Achilles tear, can the four-time MVP rebound in 2024-25?

May 14, 2024 • 14:15 ET • 3 min read
Aaron Rodgers New York Jets NFL
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Joe Flacco claimed the most recent Comeback Player of the Year honors after leading a 4-1 run as the Cleveland Browns starter, propelling the Browns to the postseason for just the second time in 20 years.

Our focus now shifts toward the upcoming season, with NFL odds positioning another veteran quarterback as the CPOY favorite following a devastating season-ending injury last year.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds

Player Team Position DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers Jets New York Jets
QB +100
Joe Burrow Bengals Cincinnati Bengals QB +200
Kirk Cousins Falcons Atlanta Falcons QB +500
Anthony Richardson Colts Indianapolis Colts QB +750
Russell Wilson Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers QB +1,200
Deshaun Watson Browns Cleveland Browns QB +1,500
Nick Chubb Browns Cleveland Browns RB +1,800
Daniel Jones Giants New York Giants QB +2,500
Justin Herbert Chargers Los Angeles Chargers QB +2,500
Tank Dell Texans Houston Texans WR +2,800

Odds as of May 14, 2024.

Favorites to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year

Aaron Rodgers (+100)

When Aaron Rodgers was shipped to the New York Jets in April 2023, the future Hall-of-Game quarterback was poised to address the long-standing void at quarterback in Gotham City.

Unfortunately for Jets fans...disaster struck early in Week 1 when Rodgers went down with what ended up being a season-ending left Achilles tear.

The four-time MVP is set to return to the gridiron in 2024 fully healthy, and the Jets made sure to address the offensive line in the first round of the draft to protect the now-40-year-old. 

Rodgers will headline Week 1 odds as the Jets kick the season off in Santa Clara against the reigning NFC champs.

Joe Burrow (+200)

Forced to undergo surgery on his wrist following a Week 11 injury, Joe Burrow's season prematurely ended for a Cincinnati Bengals team that was looking to reach the AFC Championship game for the third straight season. 

Although Burrow's lengthy injury history is a cause of concern going forward, a winning culture follows whenever the No. 1 overall pick graces the field. Having already won Comeback Player of the Year in 2021 following a devastating ACL tear during his rookie season, Burrow is no stranger to rebounding in a big way. 

Kirk Cousins (+500)

A new era is set to begin for the Atlanta Falcons when Kirk Cousins takes over under center. Like Rodgers, Cousin fell victim to a season-ending Achilles tear last year.

The four-time Pro Bowler will look to bring stability to the position for Raheem Morris' squad. With rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. waiting in the wings, the pressure will be on Cousins to impress early on with the Dirty Birds. 

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NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends

• Over the last six years, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to a quarterback.

• Although Ryan Tannehill won the award in 2019 after bouncing back from a poor 2018 season, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to players coming off significant injuries in recent years. Over a five-year period from 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year — and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation. 

• Only one player has ever won this award more than once (Chad Pennington in 2006 and 2008). 

Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners

Year NFL CPOY winner Team
2023 Joe Flacco Browns Cleveland Browns
2022 Geno Smith Seahawks Seattle Seahawks
2021 Joe Burrow Bengals Cincinnati Bengals
2020 Alex Smith Commanders Washington Commanders
2019 Ryan Tannehill Titans Tennessee Titans
2018 Andrew Luck Colts Indianapolis Colts
2017 Keenan Allen Chargers Los Angeles Chargers
2016 Jordy Nelson Packers Green Bay Packers
2015 Eric Berry Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs
2014 Rob Gronkowski Patriots New England Patriots
2013 Philip Rivers Chargers Los Angeles Chargers
2012 Peyton Manning Broncos Denver Broncos
2011 Matthew Stafford Lions Detroit Lions
2010 Michael Vick Eagles Philadelphia Eagles
2009 Tom Brady Patriots New England Patriots
2008 Chad Pennington Dolphins Miami Dolphins

How to bet on NFL awards odds

Here are a few tips to keep in mind when wagering on NFL awards betting odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

NFL awards odds will be adjusted by sportsbooks as the season goes on. In the preseason and the early weeks of the regular season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. As the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point, it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is unwise.

Look for value with underdogs

Live long shots can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors.  

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. For example, the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons. Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders. 

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