NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Will Hamlin Return to the Field?

NFL free agency is in full swing, and the betting public already has their eyes focused on the upcoming 2023-24 season.

With the 2023 NFL Draft just a month out, odds have been released for next year's Comeback Player of the Year.

Buffalo Bills' safety Damar Hamlin headlines the board at -150, but the lingering question remains...will he even suit up in 2023-24? 

Find out more in our latest NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds. 

NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting odds

Player	Team	Position	Odds
Damar Hamlin	Buffalo Bills	S	-150
Trey Lance	San Francisco 49ers	QB	+750
Tua Tagovailoa	Miami Dolphins	QB	+800
Russell Wilson	Denver Broncos	QB	+900
Lamar Jackson	Baltimore Ravens	QB	+950
Cooper Kupp	Los Angeles Rams	WR	+1,000
Matthew Stafford	Los Angeles Rams	QB	+1,200
Jimmy Garoppolo	Las Vegas Raiders	QB	+1,400
Breece Hall	New York Jets	RB	+1,400
Javonte Williams	Denver Broncos	RB	+1,400
Calvin Ridley	Jacksonville Jaguars	WR	+1,600

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, as of March 28, 2023.

Favorites to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year

Damar Hamlin (-150)

Damar Hamlin was the subject of one of the scariest incidents in NFL history back on January 2 when he suffered a cardiac arrest during a Week 17 primetime game in Cincinnati. 

Following a tackle on Bengals' wide receiver Tee Higgins, Hamlin suddenly collapsed and laid motionless on the field for minutes while team doctors from both sides rushed to his aide. The game was eventually postponed as Hamlin was transported to a local hospital where he spent an entire week before being flown to Buffalo for further testing.

Although Hamlin was able to successfully recover and make a public appearance at events like the Super Bowl, his chances of ever playing another snap in the NFL remain in question and will be the deciding factor in whether or not he's able to win this award. 

From The Heart ♥?.

-Sincerely 3????????????!

Full video: https://t.co/cmLCEZwRA4 pic.twitter.com/6zvTDg7h1W

— ???????????????????? ???????????????????????? (@HamlinIsland) January 28, 2023

Trey Lance (+750)

Trey Lance's NFL career hasn't gotten off to an ideal start.

Since being drafted second overall in 2021 by the San Francisco 49ers, Lance has suffered multiple injuries that have hindered his progression in the NFL. 

Just last year, Lance was named the starter over Jimmy Garoppolo to start the season. However, the North Dakota standout suffered a gruesome season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 against Seattle. 

Despite these setbacks, Lance could very well be the starter for the 49ers come September. Garoppolo has been the subject of numerous trade rumors, while Brock Purdy suffered a UCL tear in his elbow during the NFC Championship Game against Philly and had to undergo surgery earlier this month.

Crazy how injury opened up the door for Brock Purdy to slide into QB1 and now injury likely opens the door for Trey Lance to regain QB1

The injury situation has been awful for both QBs but this may help Trey Lance with his development back to being QB1

Wild camp coming up

— Brad (@Graham_SFN) February 22, 2023

If head coach Kyle Shanahan gives Lance the starting job once more, he'll be a tempting wager with an offensive nucleus of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle at his disposal. 

Tua Tagovailoa (+800)

At one point last season, Tua Tagovailoa seemed like an MVP candidate for the Miami Dolphins. 

Unfortunately, Tua fell victim to concussions twice — in Week 4 on MNF and on Christmas Day in Week 16. Despite finishing as the league leader in passer rating, Tua only started 13 games and missed out on key matchups, including the Dolphins' Wild Card appearance in Buffalo. 

With a receiving corps consisting of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, there's no doubt Tua can big up numbers. It all depends on whether or not he can stay healthy and avoid these scary head injuries going forward. 

NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends

• Over the last five years, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to a quarterback.

• Although Ryan Tannehill won the award in 2019 after bouncing back from a poor 2018 season, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to players coming off significant injuries in recent years. Over a five-year period from 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year — and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation. 

• Only one player has ever won this award more than once (Chad Pennington in 2006 and 2008). 

Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners

How to bet on NFL awards odds

Here are a few tips to keep in mind when wagering on NFL awards betting odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

NFL awards odds will be adjusted by sportsbooks as the season goes on. In the preseason and the early weeks of the regular season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. As the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point, it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is unwise.

Look for value with underdogs

Live long shots can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors.  

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. For example, the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons. Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders. 

Comeback Player of the Year Odds FAQs

Pages related to this topic