Examining NFL Key Numbers for the 2023/24 Season

In 2015, the NFL changed the rules around extra points and that change has affected key numbers when it comes to the point spread and the Over/Under.

Aug 15, 2023 • 13:23 ET • 5 min read
Justin Tucker Baltimore Ravens NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NOTE: Since the NFL added a 17th regular season game for the 2021 season, we’ve adjusted all metric totals involving the 2021 season down to a 16-game total.

For years, the NFL key numbers of three and seven have gotten sacred treatment from bettors. And while they remain essential spread-betting numbers, they aren’t as important as they used to be. 

Key numbers at a glance

• Teams have since attempted and made fewer extra points

• Margin frequencies (especially around key numbers) have changed as a result 

Ahead of the 2015 season the NFL moved the extra point back from the two-yard line to the 15-yard line, effectively making the extra-point attempt go from a 20-yard try to a 33-yard one. The move came on the heels of five straight seasons of 99%-plus success rates, and a stretch spanning from 1988 during which the extra-point conversion rate never dipped below 97%.

The change led many savvy bettors to believe that the previous rigidity of NFL’s key numbers would budge as more extra-point attempts would miss and more teams would be inclined to go for two.

With eight seasons of data under our belt since the change, let’s see if the theory held and what kind of effect (if any) it had on key numbers. We’ll look at the eight seasons since the change vs. the eight seasons before the transition to keep sample sizes equal for this examination. 

Extra-point attempts and success rate

So first off, did the change lead to a decrease in conversion rate? Extra points converted at a 99.2% rate in the seven years before the shift. In the seven seasons since the change, extra point attempts have dipped to a 93.9% conversion rate - a 5.3% difference.

Despite moving the attempt back, the number of attempts has remained steady: 4.7 total extra-point attempts per game. The dip in conversion rate across those two timeframes, however, means that the expected points from extra-point attempts in an NFL game have dropped from 4.66 to 4.41. That 0.25-point dip in scoring just from extra-point attempts may not seem like much at first, but the impact is easier to contextualize when comparing that dip to the juice you pay to buy just a half-point.  

So if extra-point attempts are more difficult, teams should be discouraged from attempting them as often, right? Let’s take a look.

  • In the eight seasons before the change (2007-2014), teams averaged 2.37 extra-point attempts per game
  • In the eight seasons following the change (2015-2022), teams have averaged 2.35 attempts per game
  • In 2020, teams set the record for most extra-point attempts in league history (1,338), with 2021 notching the third-highest attempts (1,257).

So what gives? 

Many NFL fans and bettors know there has been a recent offensive boom. With more touchdowns, teams naturally have more opportunities to kick the extra point. Therefore we should be looking at the rate at which teams opt to kick the extra point compared to going for two. 

From 2007 to 2014 teams opted to kick the extra point following 95.1% of touchdowns; from 2015 to 2022 they opted to kick just 90.8% of the time. In 2021 alone the attempt rate dipped to 88.3%, an all-time low.

Margin of victory in the NFL since 2015

So now we know that:

  1. Teams are choosing to kick the extra point with less frequency. 
  2. They are kicking them with less success. 

So if the previously “perfect” seven-point touchdowns of the past are less likely to happen, are we seeing the distribution of winning margins change? Since the rule change, we’ve seen a collective 2.63% increase in six and eight-point games.

Although that might seem small within the context of the 5.50% decrease in extra-point success rate, you have to keep in mind that missed extra points aren’t ultimately final as teams have the rest of the game to try and make up for it with two-point attempts. 

With that in mind, it intuitively makes sense for the six- and eight-point frequency increase (2.63%) to be slightly less than half the extra-point success decrease (5.50%) as two-point attempts convert at about that rate. 

There is noticeably one unexpected increase in margin frequency: five-point games (+1.36%). There aren’t any immediate reasons strictly related to extra-point frequency due to the rule change that could explain the trend. It would be easy to mark it as just a sample size issue for 2015-2022.

But one logical explanation could be the increased availability and usage of data-driven insight on when it is logical to go for two and when it’s not. And the proliferation of that information makes it easy for beat writers, analysts, and fans to bombard coaches with criticism when they bungle those opportunities.

Regarding five-point games: A team leading by five after a touchdown improves its win probability by 3.1% by kicking an extra point and making it a six-point game versus improving its win probability by 5.2% by successfully converting a two-point conversion and making it a full touchdown game. Conversely, a team down five after scoring a touchdown improves its win probability by 2.9% when adding an extra point and making it a four-point game versus 5.0% when converting a two-point try and making it a field-goal game (probabilities via FiveThirtyEight). 

Those two situations make up the third- and fourth-largest improvements in win probability when converting a two-point conversion instead of an extra point. This manifests in the (relatively) significant jump in five-point margins. It is the only instance in which it is significantly beneficial to attempt a two-point conversion when trailing and leading by the same number. 

Interesting five-point tangents aside, what are the essential takeaways for NFL key numbers for spreads in 2022?  

Ultimately three and seven are still king, and 10 and 14 also matter when looking at the (more infrequent) larger point spreads. 

Outside of that, six and eight (especially six) are just a little easier to swallow if the alternative is paying large juice on a seven. 

NFL totals since 2015

In the last 20 seasons, the average total has gone from 41.0 to last year’s 44.2 (and notably 2020’s all-time high of 48.2). Despite rapidly increasing NFL totals, average points per game scored have outpaced totals in 15 of the last 20 seasons and have done so by an average of 0.6 points in those seasons. 

Despite 2020’s 49.6 average points per game being four points higher than 2019’s average and an entire field goal more than the previous all-time high, 2021 reversed course. The 46.0 points scored on average in 2021 not only paced below the average total of 46.5, it was just the third time since 2000 that average points paced below the average total by more than half a point.

A large reason for that reverse of course has been the popularization of two-high safety shells, which limit the deep ball and force teams to opt for shorter passes and to lean on the run game more. As a result, 2022 saw a similar trend in which average points per game (43.8) once again paced below the average total (44.2).

So how has this affected key numbers in totals, if at all? It’s a tricky question, as “key numbers” in totals are nowhere near as rigid or frequent as they are in spreads. 

For example, the key number of three in spreads occurs in around 15% of all games and seven in about 9%. In comparison, the most frequent total numbers appear about 4% of the time. Because the peak frequency of key numbers in totals is so low, the relative gaps between those frequencies and the least frequent numbers are not as significant. 

For example, the key number of three in spreads occurs about 10% more frequently than the least frequent one-score margins, and seven is a still-respectable 5% more frequently than those numbers. The most frequent key numbers in totals only happen around 3% more often than the less frequent numbers, illustrated below.

Points
2007-2017 2018-2021 Change
<35 31.5% 24.3% -7.15%
35 2.02% 1.49% -0.53%
36 3.14% 3.09% -0.05%
37 4.80% 3.66% -1.14%
38 2.65% 1.94% -0.70%
39 2.65% 2.86% 0.21%
40 4.35% 4.80% 0.45%
41 4.98% 3.89% -1.09%
42 2.06% 1.94% -0.12%
43 5.34% 3.43% -1.91%
44 4.93% 5.49% 0.55%
45 3.23% 3.09% -0.14%
46 2.56% 3.20% 0.64%
47 4.44% 3.89% -0.56%
48 4.13% 2.86% -1.27%
49 2.51% 3.09% 0.57%
50 3.41% 3.54% 0.13%
51 4.85% 5.49% 0.64%
52 3.23% 2.51% -0.72%
53 2.15% 1.26% -0.90%
54 2.83% 2.63% -0.20%
55 3.72% 3.20% -0.52%
56 1.08% 1.71% 0.64%
57 2.56% 3.20% 0.64%
58 2.24% 3.31% 1.07%
59 1.57% 1.83% 0.26%
60 0.81% 1.37% 0.56%
61 1.79% 1.14% -0.65%
62 1.75% 2.29% 0.54%
63 1.03% 1.94% 0.91%
64 1.30% 2.06% 0.76%
65+ 11.89% 13.83% 1.94%

As you can see, the “key numbers” in totals are primarily “key ranges.” You can see this with 36-37, 40-41, 43-44, 51 (the lone wolf), 54-55, and 57-58. With the recent boom in scoring, you can see in the far right column that this has shifted scoring frequencies towards higher numbers. 

So when it comes to totals, the key takeaway is that although there are certainly more frequented totals in the form of some “key ranges,” they aren’t as firm as key numbers in spreads.

However, it is always advantageous to still play the probabilities, meaning you’d prefer to be above these ranges when playing the Under. When playing the Over, you’d like to be below them. On top of that there are other game elements to consider when playing totals such as the weather.

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