Thanksgiving is here, and with it comes the usual spread of NFL games to feast on. This is an annual tradition for the Dallas Cowboys, who welcome the New York Giants to the table on Thursday as 9-5 point home favorites.
With such a lopsided line, oddsmakers are expecting the Cowboys to win easily. I'm buying into that narrative as I back a duo of Cowboys and fade Giants quarterback Daniel Jones with my best free NFL player props for Giants vs. Cowboys on November 24.
Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's full Giants vs. Cowboys betting preview.
Giants vs Cowboys props
- Pollard Over 63.5 rush yds (+106)
- Jones longest completion Under 32.5 (-110)
- Parsons Over 0.5 sacks (-167)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Cowboys Thanksgiving Day props
Two-time NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott has been limited in practice this week, and his status for Thursday remains up in the air. But Dallas won't miss him much either way, with Tony Pollard emerging as the Cowboys' best back.
The 25-year-old is averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season (far higher than Elliott's 3.9 ypc) and rushed for over 100 yards in Weeks 8 and 10 with Elliott sidelined.
Even in the last two games that Elliot played (Week 7 against Detroit and last Sunday versus Minnesota), Pollard hit the 80-yard mark, so even if he shares the workload, he should be in for a big day.
This is especially the case with the Cowboys installed as big faves against a Giants defense that surrenders 5.3 ypc and ranks 28th in the league in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. If Dallas gets up early like it did last week, it will likely pound the rock with both running backs.
Tony Pollard Prop: Over 63.5 rushing yards (+106)
If the Cowboys jump out to a big lead, Daniel Jones might find himself throwing the ball a fair bit. But typically, the Giants QB doesn't throw the ball much, and when he does, he doesn't attack deep. Jones is averaging just 6.9 yards per pass attempt, and his average intended air yards of 6.7 ranks near the bottom of the league.
To be fair, Jones doesn't have many vertical targets, with Darius Slayton his only deep threat, and Slayton will find himself often matched up with lockdown corner Trevon Diggs on Thursday.
The Cowboys allow the third-fewest yards per pass attempt in the league (5.6), and they rank fourth in DVOA defense against deep passes. With the O/U on Jones' longest pass completion set at 32.5 (a number he has eclipsed in just three of 10 games this season), bet the Under.
Daniel Jones Prop: Longest pass completion Under 32.5 (-110)
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Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas has been one of the best blockers in the game, but the rest of New York's line has been a disaster, with the team ranking second-last in the league in sack rate.
Thomas might not even suit up since he missed Monday's practice with an illness, and even if he does, Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons should have a field day.
The beauty of Parsons' position is his ability to line up anywhere to take advantage of weaknesses on the line. There should be plenty on Thursday, with several Giants offensive linemen listed as questionable due to injuries.
Parsons is third in the league with 10 sacks, and his pass rush rate of 91.5 (a measurement of how often he beats blockers) is second among all edge rushers, according to Pro Football Focus. Parsons has been limited in practice due to a leg injury from Sunday but has said that he is "good to go," and I expect him to prove that with a sack on Thursday.
Micah Parsons Prop: Over 0.5 sacks (-167)