The New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys are always good for a game with juicy storylines, and this Thanksgiving Day matchup is like a perfectly-cooked turkey.
The Giants are 7-3 but just took arguably their worst loss of the season to the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are fresh off perhaps the most impressive win by any team this year, a 40-3 thumping of the Minnesota Vikings on the road. Odell Beckham Jr. is apparently interested in signing with both teams — perhaps this game will be an audition for his services.
This holiday affair is must-see TV, and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott goes a long way in making that so. But I’m a bit bearish as to just how much he’ll stuff the stat sheet in this one, and my prop wagering strategy will reflect that.
Dak Prescott Thanksgiving Day prop picks
- Under 246.5 passing yards (-115)
- Longest completion Under 36.5 yards (-120)
- Under 1.5 passing TDs (+120)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dak Prescott TNF props
Passing yards don’t pile up
Dak Prescott has cleared this passing line in each of his last three games, but bettors should be skeptical that he’ll do it a fourth straight time on Thursday afternoon.
Prescott started his current streak by getting to 250 passing yards against the Chicago Bears, whose No. 9-ranked pass defense is not nearly as good as it looks, as they’ve benefited from both circumstance and favorable matchups in this department throughout the year. He then recorded 265 yards against the Green Bay Packers but needed 46 throws and a partial overtime period to do it.
In Week 11, Prescott threw for a season-high 276 yards against the Vikings, who are now 31st in passing yards allowed per game (267.3). The Mississippi State product was able to complete 88% of his passes and averaged 11 yards per attempt on Sunday — hardly sustainable numbers.
The Giants’ pass stoppers are not pushovers, as they’re 15th on the year in passing yards allowed per game (211.8) and ninth in yards allowed per attempt (6.8). Big Blue’s defense has had much greater difficulty preventing the run, ranking 25th in yards allowed per game (135.9) and 31st in yards allowed per rush (5.3).
Prop: Under 246.5 passing yards (-115)
Failing to find the big play
When Pollard broke off a 68-yard receiving touchdown against Minnesota last week, it marked the first time this season that Prescott completed a pass for 37 or more yards. The line on Prescott’s longest completion is simply set way too high on Thursday as a result.
Prescott’s “bomb” drought stretches back into last season when he failed to produce a completion of 37 or more yards in three of his last five regular season matchups.
CeeDee Lamb has dwarfed his teammates in terms of receiving production, more than doubling next-leading receiver Noah Brown in targets and yardage, and outpacing tight end Dalton Schultz in receptions 58-29. Yet, Lamb still does not have a reception of greater than 35 yards in 2022. Last season, the talented wideout closed things out with seven straight games without such a grab.
Bettors should not expect lightning to strike twice with Pollard in this spot, as the Giants are eighth in passing yards allowed per game to running backs (28.1).
Prop: Longest pass completion Under 36.5 yards (-120)
Keeping Dak out of the end zone
Much like he has with his passing yards, Prescott has built a three-game streak with Over 1.5 passing touchdowns. Despite this, we will take a negative view and side with the Under at plus money.
As mentioned above, Prescott has benefited from some easier matchups of late. The Vikings rank 14th in passing touchdown percentage (4% of throws), the Bears 17th (4.1%), and the Packers 28th (5.2%). The Giants are clearly the best of the four teams in this area, ranking seventh with only a 3.1% touchdown rate per attempt.
Prescott last faced New York in Week 15 of the 2021 campaign and tossed just one touchdown on 37 dropbacks. Dak should not record nearly that many throws on Thursday, making it less likely that he’ll get to two touchdowns in this spot.
Prop: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)