Colts vs Broncos TNF Prop Bets: For Better and Worse, Ryan Takes to the Air

Thursday’s quick turnaround will pit the Javonte Williams-less Denver Broncos against the Indianapolis Colts, who could also be with Jonathan Taylor. The Broncos are 3-point home favorites and Matt Ryan could be passing early and often as this Indy run game has been awful even with a healthy Taylor this season.

Here are my free NFL player prop picks for Thursday Night Football. Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's picks for Colts vs. Broncos picks.

• Ryan Over 0.5 INTs (-120)
• Pierce Over 34.5 Rec Yds (-101)
• Alie-Cox Over 18.5 Rec Yds (-110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Colts vs Broncos TNF props

Picking a winner

Matt Ryan has been a flop so far with his new employer as he ranks 26th in RBSDM’s CPOE +EPA/play composite. However, thanks to a defense that sits in the Bottom 10 in EPA/dropback, Ryan has been pass-happy in 2022. He’s averaging 38.5 passes per game for an offense that is throwing the ball at 65% over the last three games and could be without Jonathan Taylor on Thursday night. 

Taylor was a “DNP” on Monday’s estimated practice report, and even if he does suit up, this team has been awful on the ground, ranking 29th in EPA/rush with a healthy Taylor. With more pass opportunities comes a greater chance for an interception — something Ryan has done five times this year and in three of his four games. 

Ryan will have to avoid a Denver defense that only has one interception but averaged 0.9 per game at home in 2021 and has more defended passes than half of the league. 

With Ryan completing fewer passes than expected and likely having to lean on the passing game with the Taylor injury, I think there is certainly a better than 50% chance that the Indy QB gets picked off.

Matt Ryan Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-120 at DraftKings)

Green receiver

Alec Pierce finished second on the Colts in yards (80), catches (four), and tied for the team-high with six targets in Week 4. He has 141 receiving yards over the last two weeks and has emerged as the No. 2 WR for Ryan. That’s a big role vs. a Denver defense that will likely have Patrick Surtain take care of Michael Pittman.

Pierce isn’t playing a ton of snaps (roughly 45% of offensive plays over the last two weeks), but Ryan is targeting him when he's running routes. The second-round rookie has 11 targets on just 38 routes ran — good for a target/route of 29%. That isn’t likely a sustainable number but his recent production could mean more snaps for the pass-catcher going forward. 

Frank Reich says if they have to throw more to be successful, they will because he has such faith in the pass catchers.

“What I’m excited about, we got two rookie playmakers who are starting to shine in Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods. They’re very promising” #ForTheShoe

— Alexa Ross (@AlexaRossTV) October 3, 2022

He’s getting targets in the red zone (three) and has two grabs of 30-plus yards which leads the team. His total has moved from 26.5 to 34.5 but this is still an easy Over for me in a game I’m projecting Matt Ryan to throw the ball 39-plus times. 

Alec Pierce Prop: Over 34.5 receiving yards (-101)

Gimme some Mo

Sticking with modest receiving totals, I’m hitting the Over on Mo Alie-Cox’s set yardage of 18.5 yards. The tight end led the Colts in yards (85) and catches (six) last week. It’s not just a flash-in-the-pan output for the TE as he is getting a ton of snaps (60% on the season) and is running plenty of routes.

On the season, he’s run a route on 60% of his snaps and although the Colts run a three-player tight end rotation, this could be a one-and-done. His 7.1 yards after reception also paces the team and he played 25% more snaps than TE2, Kylen Granson in Week 4. 

Mo Alie-Cox's weekly route participation:

1. 36%
2. 47%
3. 51%
4. 62%

I am ready to be hurt again.

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 3, 2022

The TE has seen at least three targets in each game this season and with a two-TD performance last week, he might have given his struggling QB some more confidence heading into a tough matchup.   

Denver is giving up 5.2 catches and 47 yards to opposing TEs this season while allowing a 72% completion percentage to the position. If Alie-Cox hauls in three catches, this is an easy Over and I think with two catches, there’s a better than 60% chance that he tops 18.5 yards. This total has been as high as 23.5 this season. 

Mo Alie-Cox Prop: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

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