Thanksgiving begins in earnest on Thursday with the Buffalo Bills taking on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.
Buffalo is coming off a bounce-back win over the Browns (in Detroit, no less), while the Lions have won three straight following a dismal 1-6 start to the season.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Lions Thanksgiving Day props
Here back in Allentown
Josh Allen threw for just 197 yards last week in Buffalo's win over Cleveland, but that game was well out of hand by the time the fourth quarter rolled around. Buffalo started to eat the clock on the ground, and that likely won't be the case this time around.
While the Lions struggle against the rush as well, I expect their seventh-ranked offense to have enough success on Thursday to make it a game and keep the Bills passing well into the final minutes. Despite Detroit being 4-6 on the season, only two have been losses by more than one possession.
When that has happened this season, the Over on Allen's passing yards has been money. With electric targets such as Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, Allen can lead touchdown drives within a blink of an eye. In fact, Diggs and Davis have combined for 13 of Allen's 21 passing TDs this season.
Geno Smith and Tua Tagavailoa each threw for 320 or more yards in Detroit this season, and both of those games were shootouts that came down to the bitter end. Allen has gone Over 270.5 passing yards in six of his 11 games this season, and I'm expecting Detroit to show up for their fans on Thanksgiving and force the star QB to keep throwing all game.
Josh Allen Prop: Over 270.5 passing yards (-115)
St. Brown goes off
The Lions no longer feature T.J. Hockenson as a downfield threat, and rookie first-rounder Jameson Williams will not be making his debut tomorrow despite being taken off the non-football injury list.
While the Bills excel against the rush, they've slipped up against the pass lately, with safety Micah Hyde's presence continuing to be a major hole in the secondary.
Last week, Browns' WR1 Amari Cooper torched Buffalo for 113 yards on eight receptions. I expect this game to be high-scoring, and St. Brown should have success against a Buffalo team that has given up 300+ passing yards in four of their last six games. Prior to that, Buffalo hadn't allowed more than 200 in each of its first four.
The Hard Knocks' star has been inconsistent at times, but he'll be the X-factor in helping Detroit keep up with Buffalo's high-octane attack.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Prop: Over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
It's been a disappointing season for tight end Dawson Knox in the red zone, especially when you compare his offensive stats in 2021.
Last year, Knox finished tied for first among tight ends with nine touchdown catches, but he only has two to his name in 2022.
While Knox is mostly known for his superb blocking ability at the TE position, he's due for a touchdown against Detroit on Thursday.
The Lions' defense is especially weak at linebacker, and Alex Anzalone will be tasked with primarily keeping tabs on Knox. Per Pro Football Focus, Knox has the biggest advantage of any starting TE this week when he's matched up against Anzalone, who has a dismal grade of just 59.0 in coverage this season.
We can get a Knox anytime touchdown at +200 in this game, and I fully expect there to be no shortage of them between the two teams with the Over/Under set at 54.5.
Dawson Knox Prop: Anytime touchdown (+200)