College Football Upsets and Underdogs Week 14: Tulane Waves Goodbye

It’s time for the rubber to meet the road, as multiple teams make their final stand for a College Football Playoff spot — while others simply hope to win their conference title game for bragging rights and a better bowl game. 

Championship Week is upon us, and we have two games where the underdog stands a strong chance of pulling off an upset. Join us as we dive into the final college football upset picks before bowl season!

College football upset picks for Week 14

• Ohio ML (+130)
• UCF +4 (-110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Toledo vs Ohio (+130)

Simply put, I believe the wrong team is favored in this game. Ohio is red hot, winner of seven straight following a 2-3 start. Two of its three defeats came to Iowa State and Penn State, and since losing to Kent State to open conference play, the Bobcats were untouched in the MAC. Of their seven consecutive victories, they won by less than two touchdowns just once. 

That’s not to say that Toledo isn’t a worthy opponent. But the Rockets have backed their way into the title game, losing three of their last five games. They’ve committed 16 turnovers in that five-game run, including six of them against Buffalo, and they managed just 14 points last week against Western Michigan, as their high-powered offense sputtered. To make matters worse, Dequan Finn got injured two weeks ago against Bowling Green, and was visibly hampered against Western Michigan. 

I have no doubt if Ohio hadn’t lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke last week to injury, the Bobcats would be favored. But I believe they still should be. First of all, backup CJ Harris played fine in relief, passing for a touchdown and rushing for three more. Secondly, Ohio’s defense has been playing well over the past month and a half. More importantly, they’re forcing turnovers, ranked fifth in the nation with two forced per game.

And that’s why Ohio is going to win this game. Toledo will move the ball at times, but Finn is a bit of a wounded duck in the pocket and his inability to escape or take care of the ball will be their downfall. Ohio will rely on its run game to make up for the absence of Rourke, and Harris can make plays with his legs. Take the Bobcats to continue this hot run and win the MAC Championship. 

PICK: Ohio moneyline (+130)

UCF (+155) vs Tulane

Just a few weeks after their thrilling 38-31 showdown, Tulane and UCF square off again in New Orleans. The Green Wave were beaten in front of their home fans, falling behind 31-14 early in the second half and unable to climb fully out of the hole they dug for themselves. Their solid defense was carved apart by John Rhys Plumlee — well, on the ground at least. While UCF’s quarterback managed just 132 yards on 17/30 passing, he used his legs to gain 176 yards and two touchdowns including a 67-yard scamper. 

Stopping the run has been a real problem of late for the Green Wave. Cincinnati gained 5.5 yards per carry a week ago, running for 235 yards and three touchdowns. While they were decent against SMU, the Mustangs don’t run the ball particularly well. 

Tyjae Spears went down injured in the first meeting with UCF, or he might’ve had an explosive day on the ground as well. UCF can be had on the ground, and isn’t the best against the pass. But it’s forcing teams to grind out drives, not giving up explosive plays, and ranks fifth in red zone scoring defense. 

Even with Spears being available the entire game, I’m not sure it would’ve been enough to offset what their defense allowed, considering the Knights outgained them by over 200 yards. They’ve done nothing since that time to make me believe they will suddenly be able to slow down UCF on the ground. While UCF may not win the game, I fully expect the Knights to cover the spread. 

PICK: UCF +4 (-110)

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