The final week of the college football season is upon us, and it’s time for a weekend full of food, fun, football, and rivalries galore. Thanksgiving is always fun, but it can get even more enjoyable — or frustrating depending on the outcomes — when you get to battle with rival friends and family members.
Rivalries are the theme of our upset picks for Week 13. There are multiple underdogs who would love nothing more than to ruin the season of their rival, and we’ve found the three who stand the best chance of doing so.
Heat up those leftovers, loosen the belt a bit, and dive into our college football upset picks for the final full weekend of NCAAF action!
College football upset picks for Week 13
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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South Carolina (+14.5) @ Clemsoon
I’m not entirely certain South Carolina will beat its rival Clemson this weekend. After all, the Tigers have won 40 straight games at Memorial Stadium, and are riding a seven-game win streak over their rivals. That said, I don’t understand the visitors being such big underdogs.
The Gamecocks picked up their seventh win last week with a resounding 63-38 win over Tennessee that saw Spencer Rattler throw a career-high six touchdown passes. They found the end zone on each of their five drives before halftime, and the offense was clicking despite the absence of starting back Marshawn Lloyd.
Lloyd is questionable for the game against Clemson, and that might not matter much given the Gamecocks haven’t had the strongest ground game all season. What they do have is a QB in Rattler who has shown he is playing his best football of the year. After throwing six picks in his first four games, he’s thrown just once in his last five — and none in the past three games.
Rattler has also led South Carolina to a pair of wins over then Top 15 teams, with a victory over Kentucky to go along with the win last week. Now he looks to do so against a Clemson defense that, while solid, has shown it can give up big plays. Sam Hartman threw for more than 300 yards against the Tigers, and that was in large part because Wake’s offensive line was able to protect him.
If South Carolina can give Rattler time, it would allow it to keep the game tight — and that would put pressure on the Tigers’ quarterback, whoever it is. The Gamecocks perform fairly well against the pass and if DJ Uiagalelei struggles early, he might start glancing to see if backup Cade Klubnik is warming up.
The Gamecocks should do enough to keep this game closer than the spread, and cause some nerves in Death Valley on Saturday. Take South Carolina and the points.
PICK: South Carolina +14.5 (-110)
Louisville (+130) @ Kentucky
There won’t be a play all year that I hope I’m more wrong about than this one. As a Kentucky fan and alum, this hurts me to write — but this is a matchup that favors the Cardinals. The Wildcats have struggled all season long with offensive line play, once a reliable strength under Mark Stoops.
The Big Blue Wall has been more like a picket fence with all the slats missing, as they’ve had the second-worst sack rate allowed all season — allowing Will Levis to be taken down on nearly 13% of his drop-backs. They also rank 109th in tackles for loss allowed per game.
That’s bad news against a Louisville defense under Scott Satterfield and Bryan Brown that has decided to be aggressive and has been a nuisance for quarterbacks the past month and a half.
It ranks second in the nation with a sack rate of nearly 11% and 12th in the nation in tackles per loss. It also like to bring blitzes from different looks, an area Kentucky has particularly struggled with.
The Wildcats' defense has played well for much of the season, but it can’t carry the offense enough to win games. That was evident last week against Georgia, where it held the Bulldogs to just 16 points but watched the offense fail to score for more than 50 minutes and find the endzone just once.
First-year offensive coordinator Rick Scangarello has been unable to consistently call a strong gameplan, and the offensive line struggles have often put the offense behind the chains.
Everything I’ve seen and heard indicates that Malik Cunningham will be ready to go on Saturday, which also favors the Cardinals. While his play hasn’t been up to the level many Louisville fans hoped it would be, his playmaking ability gives the Cardinals an extra edge and makes them that much tougher to defend.
The Cards have shown they love to run, and Kentucky’s average against the rush this season. If Levis is unable to take care of the ball against Louisville’s ball-hawking defense — the nation’s best in takeaways — and isn’t given time to look downfield for his weapons, it’s going to be a long and miserable day for Wildcats fans.
Kentucky hasn’t been able to slow down MAC pass rushes, and I don’t see it doing so against Louisville. Take the Cardinals to win outright.
PICK: Louisville moneyline (+130)
Notre Dame (+175) @ USC
Despite facing the 18th fewest run attempts per game, USC’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed per game. That’s in large part because it’s allowing nearly five yards per rush attempt — ranking in the bottom 25% in the country.
Last week in their 48-45 shootout win over UCLA, the Trojans allowed more than 200 yards rushing against one of the best ground games in college football. Now they will have to face another one as Notre Dame arrives to town. The Fighting Irish ran all over Boston College last week, with 281 yards on the ground in a 44-0 rout.
Both of these offenses have shown they can put up points in bunches. Caleb Williams is posting Heisman-type numbers, with nearly 3,500 yards passing and 33 touchdowns. Notre Dame’s passing game has looked better of late as well, with Drew Pyne throwing four of his 19 touchdown passes on the season in the first half of Notre Dame’s win over Navy two weeks ago.
But it’s the defensive side of the ball where Notre Dame will have the advantage on Saturday. The Trojans allowed more than 500 yards last week to UCLA, as their pass defense yet again proved to be a major weakness. While they do a good job at getting sacks and forcing picks, they rank in the bottom fourth of the country in yards allowed per game and yards allowed per pass.
Notre Dame’s pass defense units will be one of the best that Williams has faced all year, ranked in the Top 20 nationally in yards allowed per game, yards per pass allowed, sack rate, and completion percentage.
While I doubt they will shut Williams down, they should be able to get enough stops to allow their offense to control the ball and the clock with the ground game, and then hit Michael Mayer for big plays off the play action. Take the Irish to beat their rivals outright for their ninth win of the season.
PICK: Notre Dame moneyline (+175)
