College Football Upsets and Underdogs Week 12: Ride With the Cowboys on the Road

We had a perfect run in our Week 11 upset picks, with not only all three picks hitting but all three underdogs coming out with victories. That included a TCU pick at +250 as they continued their run toward the College Football Playoff.

This week we’re back with three more games featuring road underdogs who should keep the score close and potentially disrupt someone’s final month of the season. Let’s jump right into our Week 12 college football upset picks!

College football upset picks for Week 12

• NC State +4.0
• Oklahoma State ML
• Syracuse +10

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

NC State vs Louisville

If you want high-powered offenses and scoreboards that light up like Christmas…then this game probably won’t interest you all that much. Saturday’s ACC tilt between NC State and Louisville will feature two defenses that have played well this season in different areas and can cause headaches for opposing offensive coordinators.

NC State ranks in the Top 20 in points allowed per contest, giving up just 19.8 per game while letting just 34% of third down plays be converted. On the other side, Louisville ranks just two spots behind the Wolfpack in scoring defense and two spots behind them in third-down defense. Both teams rank in the Top 5 nationally in defensive interception percentage, as well.

To make matters worse, both teams are facing potential backup quarterback starts. Malik Cunningham will likely be a game-time decision for the Cardinals, who might want to rest him for the rivalry game next weekend against Kentucky. As for NC State, quarterback Jack Chambers could start for the third time following the knee injury to M.J. Morris against Boston College a week ago.

For me, this sets up perfectly for an upset, as NC State has proven it can win on the road. Brock Domann has not looked particularly good in relief of Cunningham, with four interceptions in just 77 pass attempts. In addition, the Cardinals — who rank 25th in yards per carry and 24th in rushing yards per game — will be without two of their top four rushers if Cunningham is out.

I expect a very low-scoring defensive affair, which makes it much easier for NC State to cover the spread. Without Cunningham’s dynamic playmaking ability, I’ll take the points in this one.

PICK: NC State +4.0 (-110)

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma

Bedlam is an apt name for when Oklahoma State and Oklahoma square off, given the amount of mayhem that can take place in this rivalry. While the Sooners have won 90 of the 116 meetings, including 16 of the last 19, the home team has actually covered the spread just twice in the last 10 games.

Oklahoma’s defense is really bad. Opposing offenses are completing 62.9% of their throws, and the Sooners can’t get to the quarterback very well. They’re also allowing more than 200 yards on the ground per game and 432 total yards per contest. While the Cowboys aren’t poised to take advantage of their opponent’s struggles against the run (Oklahoma State rushes for just 3.3 yards per carry), it’s still going to feast on their secondary with the passing game.

Oklahoma State loves to throw the ball, gaining more than 275 yards per game. Helping matters for Oklahoma State is the return of quarterback Spencer Sanders. The Cowboys have been a completely different team with him at the helm, and he came off the bench last week to lead them to a win over Iowa State. He will do the same here against an Oklahoma team that has lost five of their last seven games, including two of three.

Oklahoma has little to play for other than pride and a possible bowl game, while the Cowboys still have a shot at reaching the Big 12 title game if they win out and Kansas State drops their last two. Look for the Sooners to fall to their bitter rivals for the second straight year.

PICK: Oklahoma State moneyline (+235)

Syracuse vs Wake Forest

A month ago, this looked like it could be a massive game toward determining the outcome of the ACC Atlantic division title. Now it’s simply a game to decide positioning for a bowl game, as Wake Forest and Syracuse both enter the game unranked and have lost multiple games in a row. The Demon Deacons have lost three straight — two of which came against ranked foes — including a two-point defeat to North Carolina last weekend.

Meanwhile, injuries derailed what was a special season for the Orange. After winning their first six games, they’re in the midst of a four-game skid that has seen them score just 12 points in their last two games combined. However, this could be the game that allows Garrett Shrader to get the offense back on track, as he should finally be back close to 100% after dealing with some injury concerns.

Wake Forest ranks 12th in the ACC and 107th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, and the Demon Deacons don't get to the quarterback very often. Shrader had a great game against Wake last season, running for nearly 200 yards and a touchdown while throwing for two more scores. Wake Forest has also not been great against the run, and Sean Tucker can keep Sam Hartman on the sideline if he can churn out yards.

Syracuse’s pass defense will also give the Orange a chance to win. Hartman has been a turnover machine the past few weeks, and it’s hurt Wake’s chances often. While he played a much cleaner game last week, that did come against a poor North Carolina pass defense, plus he still threw a critical interception late in the contest that led to the game-winning field goal for the Tar Heels.

The Orange rank 15th in yards allowed per pass and 13th in passing yards per game. They also do a good job at getting to the quarterback, an issue for a Wake team allowing a sack on more than 8% of pass plays. Syracuse is also one of the top interception teams, ranked 27th in interception percentage.

I’m not confident enough that Syracuse wins outright, but 10.5 points are far too large a spread in this game. Take the Orange to at least cover the number, marking the ninth time Syracuse will have covered the spread in the last 12 meetings.

PICK: Syracuse +10.5 (-105)

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