Penn State vs Utah Prediction: Rose Bowl Odds and Picks

So often the most anticipated of the New Year's Six bowl games, the Rose Bowl between the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) and Utah Utes (10-3) caps off the action on January 2.

A two-loss Penn State team earns the Big Ten nomination after both Michigan and Ohio State qualified for the College Football Playoff, while Utah makes its second straight appearance after capturing another Pac-12 title. 

Will the Utes claim Rose Bowl glory after falling just short a year ago? Read our college football picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Utah below to find out.

Penn State vs Utah best odds

Penn State vs Utah picks and predictions

Kyle Whittingham has done an outstanding job with the Utah Utes, coaching this program to back-to-back Pac-12 titles and Rose Bowl appearances. Can the Utes top last year’s 10 wins by notching an 11th victory in the season finale? 

Offense has been their calling card this season, as dual-threat quarterback Cameron Rising leads an offense averaging 40.0 points per game — good for seventh in the nation. The defense is no slouch either, surrendering just 20.4 ppg led by star cornerback Clark Phillips III and his six interceptions — although his status for the game is in doubt after he announced his intentions to enter the NFL Draft.

The Utes fell to Florida in the swamp to begin the season, at UCLA in early October, and at Oregon on November 19. All three losses came on the road, and the loss to the Bruins means that it's now two straight defeats at the Rose Bowl for Whittingham’s squad.

Last year’s Rose Bowl saw Utah exceed expectations in a thrilling 48-45 loss to Ohio State in which the Utes were so shorthanded in the secondary that running back Micah Bernard was forced to play cornerback. This time around, college football odds have the Utes listed as the slim favorite, between -2 and -2.5 at most books.

Its opponent, Penn State, went 10-2 with its only losses coming to Michigan (41-17) and Ohio State (44-31). Those were the only two games all year in which the Nittany Lions weren't favored, so their resume is somewhat straightforward — having won and lost the games they were supposed to.

The mercurial yet experienced Sean Clifford leads an offense averaging 35.8 ppg, but freshmen running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are the new stars on campus after both eclipsed 1,000 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns. A stout defense allowing just 18 ppg and 317.8 total yards will be relied on heavily in this matchup. 

I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring Rose Bowl, unlike last year’s iteration. Utah will be severely short-handed offensively without its three top tight ends, which are a staple in the Andy Ludwig offense. Forced into playing former quarterback Ja’Quinden Jackson at running back, the Utes will find running the ball difficult against a Penn State front seven ranking third in line yards, first in stuff rate, and third in havoc.

Penn State’s offensive line has been a problem for several seasons now (75th in line yards, 77th in stuff rate) and the rushing attack ranked just 89th in rush success rate despite featuring two stars at tailback. Utah ranks 19th in havoc and 13th in stuff rate, and the Utes should be up to the task of slowing down a mediocre Nittany Lions offense. 

There’s a chance late money comes in on the Over as late bettors recall Utah’s fireworks show in the 2021 iteration of this game. I like the line where it is now, and will like it more if it does rise. Give me the Under.

My best bet: Under 52.5 (-110 at bet365)

Penn State vs Utah spread analysis

Penn State was a highly impressive 9-3 against the spread this season. The Lions have also been good against winning teams, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records, and have also gone 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.

The Nittany Lions have a stout defense that ranks 14th in EPA per play and 24th in success rate. If they have a major weakness, it’s in allowing big plays, as they rank 72nd in explosiveness and are particularly vulnerable via the ground (77th in rushing explosiveness) despite being strong along the defensive front.

Star cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is expected to be the only major opt-out, although his loss is a big one. The offense is mediocre, ranking 37th in EPA per play and 54th in success rate. 

Utah’s offense is excellent, ranking 20th in EPA per play and seventh in success rate. The loss of star tight end Brant Kuithe was lessened by the stellar play of Dalton Kincaid (70 receptions, 890 yards, eight TDs — all clear team leads), but now Kincaid will also be absent as he prepares for the draft.

A strong offensive line ranking eight in line yards and 24th in stuff rate has its work cut out for it against this tough Nittany Lions front. Defensively, Utah slid back to 51st in EPA and 34th in success rate, and the potential loss of Phillips will loom large as he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the nation. 

I side with the Nittany Lions in this spot as the slight underdog. Utah has shown some vulnerabilities this season and will be without its best player on both sides of the ball due to opt-outs. 

Penn State vs Utah Over/Under analysis

There’s reason to expect both offenses to find tough sledding in the Rose Bowl. As such, I'm anticipating a matchup that stays Under the total.

Utah’s offense works best when it can run the ball, and it’s no sure thing that the Utes will be successful against a Nittany Lions defense allowing just 105.1 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per rush.

Linebacker Abdul Carter (10.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks) had a terrific freshman season, while defensive ends Adisa Isaac (9.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks) and Demeioun Robinson (8.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks) also create plenty of havoc. It’s no wonder that Penn State ranks third in Havoc with so many monsters along the front seven.

I mentioned it above, but I’ll reiterate my point here — Utah’s offense features the tight end position more than just about any other offense in the country, and the Utes are severely shorthanded at the position for the Rose Bowl. 

When Penn State has the ball, it will be without leading receiver Parker Washington (46 receptions, 611 receiving yards). Given the poor play of the offensive line and the inaccuracy of quarterback Sean Clifford, the offense has relied more on big plays (26th in explosiveness) than moving the chains consistently (54th in success rate).

Those plays may be there in this matchup against a Utah defense ranking 121st in explosiveness, but I do question the consistency with which the Nittany Lions will find productive drives. 

In-play microbetting trends for Utah vs Penn State

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Utah

Offensive score Yes: 14/42 (33.3%)
Offensive score No: 28/42 (66.6%)

Punts: 15/42 (35.7%)
TDs:11/42 (26.1%)
FG attempts: 6/42 (14.2%)
TOs: 10/42 (23.8%)

Utah had four drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Penn State

Offensive score Yes: 10/32 (31.2%)
Offensive score No: 22/32 (68.7%)

Punts: 13/32 (40.6%)
TDs: 7/32 (21.8%)
FG attempts: 4/32 (12.5%)
TOs: 8/32 (25%)

Penn State had three drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

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