Mississippi State vs Illinois Prediction: ReliaQuest Bowl Odds and Picks

Some games are not really about football, and this year’s ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa will not be remembered for what happens on the field. The Mississippi State Bulldogs are playing with heavy hearts, to say the least, after the sudden passing of head coach Mike Leach on December 12. 

The Illinois Fighting Illini will provide a fitting defensive test for Leach’s “Air Raid” scheme.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Illinois on January 2, with kickoff set for 12:00 ET.

Mississippi State vs Illinois best odds

Mississippi State vs Illinois picks and predictions

Obviously, handicapping this game feels a touch calloused. Mike Leach was one of the giants of the sport. Off the field, his quirks and curiosities were long well-known, and the best part of remembering him the last few weeks has been the sharing of those stories. 

Hearing tales of Leach taking aimless phone calls from practice, of him calling opposing head coaches just to chat past midnight, of him holding court at a Key West bar softened some of the loss felt by the whole sport.

On the field, he redefined passing schemes for multiple generations. The “Air Raid” may not be as popular anymore as at its peak, but pieces of it are incorporated into just about every offense across the country with the possible exceptions of the service academies. 

No one runs it as purely as Mississippi State does, of course, lining up receivers a breath away from the sideline and splitting offensive linemen wider along the line of scrimmage to stretch defenses horizontally and to create natural holes.

Run the ball? Leach would rather answer an on-field post-game question earnestly, something he also almost never did. The Bulldogs ran the ball only 247 times this season, 20.6 times per game, after accounting for sacks. No one ran less this season. No one came close to running less.

If ever there was a time to emphasize that, it is in Leach’s memory. Would everyone not chuckle if Mississippi State head coach Zach Arnett — the Bulldogs named the defensive coordinator not just the interim coach, but the permanent head coach to maintain some stability and Leach’s culture — opted not to rush the ball at all against Illinois?

For that matter, it might be prudent.

Illinois has one of the best rushing defenses in the country. Even if Mississippi State had a dangerous rushing attack, this would not be the defense to flex it against.

The Illini’s passing defense is also stellar, but an exception can be pondered here. Who in the Big Ten was going to test Illinois? It did not play Ohio State or Penn State. It did, however, face Purdue. Boilermakers quarterback Aidan O’Connell threw for 237 yards and three touchdowns on 25-for-40 passing, while Purdue took only 32 rushes for 143 yards in its win at Illinois.

Those 32 rushes fit right in line with the Boilermakers’ average of 33.8 per game, sacks adjusted, landing in the bottom third of the country in running frequency.

That is not quite Air Raid-esque, but it may have proven the needed concept to beat Illinois. If so, that concept fits a Mike Leach tribute perfectly.

Expect Mississippi State to lean into the Air Raid more than ever, and in doing so, find some holes against the Illini.

Bet on Leach getting one last laugh.

My best bet: Mississippi State team total Over 23.5 (-113 at FanDuel)

Mississippi State vs Illinois spread analysis

Mississippi State has been favored all along since this game was announced, but the spread did spend some of the last month as a pick’em. Once again favoring Mississippi State by 2 points to the opt-outs suffered by Illinois.

The Illini will be without first-team All-Big 10 defensive backs Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown and possibly without cornerback Quan Martin. Those absences alone should underscore the Air Raid possibilities for Mississippi State.

Illinois will also miss star running back Chase Brown, his Dec. 23 decision spurring significant moves in the market.

The biggest Mississippi State names, however, have made it clear they will play in this game despite their NFL intentions.

Mississippi State vs Illinois Over/Under analysis

The total remaining as low as 46 is a reflection of everything Illinois does. The suffocating defense combined with a ground-based offense makes for lower totals.

But, at the risk of dwelling on those opt-outs, the Illini defense should not be as suffocating, and Illinois may need to do more than simply hand off to a bell-cow running back.

When humming, the Bulldogs’ offense can threaten a total like this all on its own. Mississippi State scored 40 or more points in five games this season with another pair at 39 points.

Mississippi State vs Illinois betting trend to know

Mississippi State was 3-2 ATS as a one-score favorite this season, scoring 40 or more points in two of those three ATS wins. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Illinois.

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