Villanova vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Spartans Will Dictate Game with Pace

The Villanova Wildcats head to East Lansing to face off against the Michigan State Spartans on Friday night. Although neither school is currently in the AP Top 25, both are college basketball powerhouses, and the winner of tonight's showdown should be listed on Monday.

College basketball betting lines opened with MSU as a 5.5-point home favorite, with the total at 133. Early money has come in on the Spartans and the Under, shifting the line to -6.5 and ticking the total down to 130.5.

Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Villanova vs. Michigan State on November 18.

Villanova vs Michigan State best odds

Villanova vs Michigan State picks and predictions

The Spartans will be happy to be back at home after a couple of very tough games on neutral ground. They came out strong in both of those contests, going into halftime with a two-point lead against No. 4 ranked Kentucky and a 38-31 lead versus No. 2 Gonzaga.

They failed to cover the spread as 21-point home chalk in their season-opener against Northern Arizona, but they went into the break with a 34-20 lead.

It's also worth mentioning that center Mady Sissoko played a small role in that contest but has broken out since. He has averaged 15 points and 8.5 rebounds per game in his last two contests while being matched up against two of the best players in the nation — Drew Timme and Oscar Tshiebwe.  

Villanova has a very good frontcourt, but its backcourt has struggled with Jordan Longino and Chris Arcidiacono running the show. 

That has made it very tough for the Wildcats to get into a rhythm on offense early. They trailed Temple by five points at halftime last week and are coming off a home game against tiny Delaware State, where they were down 27-24 at the half and missed their first 17 shots from beyond the arc.

Back MSU on the first half spread.

My best bet: Michigan State -3.5 first half (-110 at bet365)

Villanova vs Michigan State spread analysis

The early season schedule doesn't get much easier for Michigan State, who are fresh off an upset win against Kentucky on Tuesday night. That allowed MSU to bounce back from a one-point loss to Gonzaga last Thursday.

Villanova is coming off a 60-50 home win against Delaware State, where they didn't even come close to covering the -34.5 spread put in front of them.

Nova lost to Temple 68-64 on the road last week, and while it comfortably beat La Salle in their season opener, a backdoor cover from the Explorers has given the Wildcats an 0-3 against the spread start to 2022. 

I mentioned that Sissoko has finally broken out in his third year with the program, and the rest of Michigan State's starting lineup is balanced and experienced. Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard share ball-handling duties, Malik Hall is a scoring threat on the wing, and gritty power forward Joey Hauser can stretch the floor with his perimeter shooting. 

While the Spartans are led by legendary head coach Tom Izzo, the Wildcats have Kyle Neptune running the show after their own legend Jay Wright retired in the offseason. Neptune was an assistant at Nova from 2013 until 2021, and he was the head coach at Fordham last season, where he had a .500 record. 

Villanova is eagerly anticipating the college debut of five-star recruit Cam Whitmore, who is recovering from thumb surgery. Thankfully, they have talented upperclassmen like Eric Dixon, Caleb Daniels, and Brandon Slater to fill up the hoop until then.

That said, Nova's backcourt is a bit of a mess, and the absence of Justin Moore really hurts. The guard was second on the team with 14.8 points and 2.3 assists per game last season but tore his Achilles tendon in the Elite Eight and won't be back until at least conference play. 

Villanova vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis

The Spartans dropped 86 points in Tuesday's victory against Kentucky, but they shot just 41% from the field in that contest, and 24 of those points came in overtime.

They managed just 63 points on 40% shooting against a fast-paced Gonzaga squad last weekend, although it's worth mentioning that both teams struggled from the perimeter due in part to the tricky sight lines and wind with that contest taking place on an aircraft carrier.

The Spartans have been very tough on the defensive end of the floor, holding opponents to just 84.5 points per 100 possessions despite facing off against two of the most talented teams in the nation. They have also been playing at a very slow pace and are 288th in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. 

With Wright coaching the team, the Wildcats were known for playing at a methodical pace, and that has continued under Neptune, with Nova ranked 350th in the country in adjusted tempo.

Villanova vs Michigan State betting trend to know

The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, while Villanova is 2-5-1 ATS in its previous eight contests on the road. Find more College basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Michigan State.

Villanova vs Michigan State game info

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