Mississippi vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Will Take Center Stage

We’ve reached the finals of the ESPN Events Invitational, and we have a good one when the 6-0 Mississippi Rebels meet the 5-1 Oklahoma Sooners. 

Mississippi upended Sienna 74-62, while Oklahoma defeated Seton Hall 77-64 to set up this SEC vs. Big-12 finale. 

Who will hoist the trophy on Sunday? Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi vs. Oklahoma on November 27.

Mississippi vs Oklahoma best odds

Mississippi vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

According to KenPom, these are two of the slowest-playing sides in the country, and there likely won’t be enough possessions for a high-scoring affair.

Turnovers have been a massive problem for Mississippi this season. The Rebels cough up the ball on 21% of their possessions and are bad shooters from up close.

Oklahoma has a good shooting team with a low turnover percentage, but it is one of the worst offensive-rebounding sides in the nation. The Sooners shot 50% from downtown against Seton Hall and 45% against Nebraska, but Mississippi chases shooters off the line and will make life difficult for the Oklahoma sharpshooters.

This is a neutral-court final and maybe the only chance for either school to win a championship this season. Even with the slow tempo employed by both teams, these young guys will likely be nervous, and that will cause all sorts of problems.

Mississippi has turnover issues, and not having Daeshun Ruffin in the lineup doesn’t help the Rebels on either end of the floor, as they will struggle to find a rhythm against a good Sooners defense. Mississippi won’t own the glass as it has in this tournament, and consistently scoring the basketball will be difficult. 

Oklahoma has been on fire from downtown during this event, but how long can a 35% percent shooting team continue to knock down shots at a 47% clip? Probably not long, and the Rebels locked down Sienna to just 33% from beyond the arc, and I don’t believe Oklahoma torches the twine Sunday.

The Sooners are a good rebounding team but struggle on the offensive glass, and those misses from deep are going to mean a loss of possessions. You can’t score if you don’t have the ball. 

My best bet: Under 128.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Mississippi vs Oklahoma spread analysis

Mississippi is a +3.5 underdog, and I’m leaning toward the Rebels to cover the spread.

The Rebels aren’t the best shooting team on the planet, but they have a considerable edge in offensive rebounding, and those second-chance points are crucial in what the oddsmakers feel will be a close game.

I sound like a broken record, but the Sooners are shooting roughly 48% from downtown at this tournament — a big jump from their 34% season average. Rebels opponents are shooting 36% from downtown, and if Mississippi can hold Oklahoma to under 40% from downtown, it will win this game.

Junior guard Matthew Murrell leads the Rebels in scoring, averaging 15.2 points with a team-high 4.2 assists. The Memphis native has scored just 20 points during this tournament on 35% shooting. I expect him to have a strong game, and if he does, the Rebels will win.

Oklahoma senior guard Grant Sherfield is coming off a 25-point night where he shot 60% from beyond the arc. The Texas native is averaging 16.2 points and 44% from downtown this season. The Rebels allow 36% from deep, and I don’t expect him to have the shooting night he enjoyed against Seton Hall.

The Rebels enter this game 6-0 straight up and 3-2-1 against the spread. Oklahoma is currently 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS.

Mississippi vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis

I’ve already shared why I like the Under in this game, but I have some additional notes.

Mississippi averages nine steals per game and scores an average of 14 points per game off turnovers. I don’t expect the Rebels to hit at that clip against a speedy Sooners transition defense allowing 10 points per game off of turnovers.

Neither side is efficient at getting to the charity stripe. Both schools also shoot below 70% from the free-throw line, and I don’t expect that to change Sunday. Mississippi allows an average of 9.2 foul shots, whereas Oklahoma also allows 9.2 free throws per game.

The Over is 4-2 over the Rebels' first six games, and the Over is 0-5 when Oklahoma is the favorite and 1-5 overall.

Mississippi vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the Sooners' last six overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Oklahoma.

Mississippi vs Oklahoma game info

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