The No. 3-ranked Houston Cougars (4-0) head to Matthew Knight Arena Sunday night to take on the Oregon Ducks (2-1) in an intriguing non-conference matchup.
Houston has dominated its first four overmatched opponents by an average margin of 36.5 points per game.
And while the Ducks will be the Cougars’ stiffest test of the season to date, things aren’t going swimmingly in Eugene after a 69-56 loss to UC Irvine on November 11.
Find out if the Cougars can keep rolling in our college basketball picks and predictions for Houston vs. Oregon below.
Houston vs Oregon best odds
Houston vs Oregon picks and predictions
Houston has been a covering machine to start the season, going 4-0 against the spread in four blowout victories.
Kelvin Sampson’s side will look to capitalize on sky-high expectations as a preseason Top-4 team that is supposed to be among the toughest teams to play in the country. What does this team do to make it so successful?
Houston will have one of the best defenses in the country yet again in 2022 after limiting opponents to just 58.2 points per game a year ago, good for second in the nation.
Marcus Sasser returns as the team’s go-to scorer, averaging 17.7 ppg and looking fully healthy after last year’s season-ending injury. Tramon Mark also returns to the fold after a season-ending injury a year ago and is yet another backcourt player averaging double-digits to pair with Sasser and Jamal Shead.
Reggie Chaney and J’Wan Roberts are high-effort bigs who crash the offensive glass. Star recruit Jarace Walker and Top-50 freshman Terrance Arceneaux provide a fresh influx of talent.
As for the Ducks, they’re still searching for their footing offensively while shooting 44.6% from the field. They’ve especially struggled from long range, converting just 30.1% of their 3-point attempts — 264th nationally.
Dana Altman's collection of transfer market mercenaries was dealt a blow when starting point guard Jermain Couisnard was lost due to injury to start the year. The experienced Will Richardson leads a backcourt that is very thin at the moment and is still searching for impact contributors to step up, while former Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier is the go-to option in the frontcourt.
Oregon is still looking for answers to start the year, evidenced by a 13-point loss to UC Irvine. Houston, on the other hand, is a full-operational death star annihilating opponents.
This is a battle-tested Houston team from years past that has plenty of experience and I don’t expect them to be overwhelmed in this road environment. Lay the points.
My best bet: Houston -6.5 (-110 at BetVictor)
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Houston vs Oregon spread analysis
This line opened at Houston -6.5 but appears to getting longer, as -7.5 has started to pop up at some locations. If you like the Cougars, it’ll be best to get your bets in quickly. If not, I still recommend playing Houston up to -8.
The Cougars are KenPom’s No. 3 team in the country, ranking No. 9 on offense and No. 2 on defense. They have plenty of experienced scoring options in the backcourt led by one of the best guards in the country in Sasser.
The defense looks to be elite yet again, ranking third nationally in scoring defense by allowing just 58.5 ppg. If there’s an area of improvement, it’s in shooting — particularly from beyond the arc (33.8%, ranking No. 184) and at the charity stripe (77.7%, ranking 324th).
There isn’t much positive to point to for the Ducks offensively, which is trouble in this matchup. Oregon ranks 180th in field goal percentage (44.6%), 164th in 3-point percentage (30.1%), and 353rd in free throw percentage (56.5%).
The Ducks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record and will continue to struggle against top competition tonight.
Houston vs Oregon Over/Under analysis
The total is set at between 132.5 and 133.5 depending on the book, so be sure to shop around. Both teams have been very profitable to the Under this season, as Houston has gone Under the total in three of its four games while the Ducks are a perfect 3-0.
Oregon checks in at No. 34 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric, but the early results have been far from impressive. This team is struggling to shoot the ball from all three levels and the backcourt depth is thin given Couisnard’s injury. Given Houston’s relentless ball pressure, Oregon’s backcourt depth is a concern in this spot.
Neither team will look to push the pace, as the Ducks rank 166th in KenPom’s tempo metric, while the Cougars are all the way down at 348th. Houston controls the glass on both ends of the floor, maintaining possession of the ball and limiting scoring chances for its opponents.
The Under is 36-17-1 in the Cougars’ last 54 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600, as will be the case in this matchup. Houston’s offensive profile is often inflated given the sheer amount of points the Cougars score against overwhelmed opponents, but this is definitely a defense-first team at heart.
Houston vs Oregon betting trend to know
Houston is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more College basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Oregon.
Houston vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Sunday, November 20, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
