Gonzaga vs St. Mary's Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs' Defense Will Oblige Over Bettors

There’s a battle for WCC supremacy in one of the marquee college games of the weekend, as No. 12 Gonzaga (19-4) hits the road to face No. 18 Saint Mary’s (20-4).

These two teams are in a league of their own in the conference, as Saint Mary’s is atop the standings at 9-0, while Gonzaga is narrowly behind at 8-1. A win for the Gaels would put them in prime position for the regular season conference crown.

Mark Few’s squad has won at least a share of the WCC title in 10 straight seasons. Will that run be put in doubt Saturday? Check out our picks and predictions for Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s on Saturday, February 4 to find out.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's best odds

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's picks and predictions

One of the best rivalries on the West Coast is set for another rendition, and this one promises to be entertaining. 

This game will be between two teams that have been complete opposites at the betting window this season. Gonzaga has been setting money on fire for bettors, going just 7-14-1 ATS this season. Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, is a very profitable 13-8-2 ATS. 

Both teams have a similar record with four losses, but their ATS results are nearly flip-flopped – evidence that the Bulldogs have fallen short of expectations, while the Gaels have exceeded theirs. 

Drew Timme is on pace to become Gonzaga’s all-time leading scorer after becoming just the third player in program history to surpass 2,000 points earlier this week against Santa Clara. He leads a Bulldogs team that has been more up-and-down than anticipated. Gonzaga is still looking to truly find its footing in 2022-23, although three straight wins – including a strong midweek showing against Santa Clara – is an encouraging sign. 

Most programs would fall into irrelevance in a “down” year, but not No. 12 Gonzaga. The Bulldogs check in at 17th overall in KenPom thanks primarily to an offense that ranks third in offensive efficiency.

Saint Mary’s is one of the best teams in the country, and looks like the team to beat at current in the WCC. The Gaels rank seventh overall in KenPom, led by a dominant defense checking in at fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Winners of 14 of the last 15, look for Randy Bennett’s side to slow down the pace.

They check in at just 358th in adjusted defensive tempo, preferring to slow the game down to a halt and play tremendous defense while taking the requisite time off the clock offensively until they find a good look.

This is the worst defense Gonzaga has had in quite some time, as the 73.7 ppg it is currently allowing is the program’s most since the 1990-91 season. Saint Mary’s offense may be methodical, but it’s effective. The Gaels rank 45th in adjusted offensive efficiency while hitting 46.7% of their shots from the field, and 37.9% of their 3-point attempts.

Even though this is a tough test for Gonzaga’s offense, the Bulldogs average 86.5 ppg, and won’t be held off the scoreboard entirely. The Bulldogs are elite offensively, ranking first nationally in both points per game and field goal percentage (52.1%).

The total of 137.5 is the lowest we’ve seen in one of their games this season, and it’s dropped low enough that I’ll be buying back on the Over.

My best bet: Over 137.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's spread analysis

It’s rare to see Gonzaga as an underdog of more than a field goal, especially in WCC play.

While I don’t trust Gonzaga’s defense (more on that later), I still am not comfortable recommending Saint Mary’s as the favorite when Gonzaga has been so historically dominant in this conference. If there ever was a buy-low spot for Gonzaga, this would be it after a miserable start to the season against the spread.

The handicap doesn’t point me in that direction, however. Saint Mary’s is led by four-star freshman Aidan Mahaney, who leads the team with 15.0 ppg on 46% shooting from the field. The Zags are susceptible to both dribble drives and outside shooting, a spot where Mahaney, Alex Ducas (12.1 ppg), and Logan Johnson (12.1 ppg) should be able to make them pay.

The home team is 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these schools. Going on the road in conference play is never an easy task, especially not in a rivalry game of this magnitude. Saint Mary’s is the rightful favorite, and I lean toward them in the betting market, albeit not with enough confidence to warrant my money.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 141.5 before quickly receiving money to the Under and dropping to 137.5 at current. 

It’s not hard to see why early action leaned that way. The Under has been a great bet when the Gaels play at home against tough opponents, going 20-7 in their last 27 games at University Credit Union Pavillion against teams with a winning record. The Under has also cashed in each of their last five games against a team with a winning road record.

That being said, Gonzaga’s defense has been a turnstile. The Bulldogs rank 79th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it's the reason they simply haven’t been as consistent as in years past. They’re allowing more points per game than they have in over two decades, and there isn’t much reason for optimism.

The Zags rank 255th in field goal defense, allowing opponents to convert 44.5% of their attempts. They’re susceptible to shots both inside the arc (249th) and outside of it (235th), failing to defend any space on the floor. They also don’t generate many turnovers, ranking just 284th nationally while forcing 14.5 per game.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's betting trend to know

The Over is 41-17 in Gonzaga’s last 58 Saturday games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's game info

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's key injuries

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