Florida vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gators Struggle Away from Swamp

Two prestigious SEC teams that currently find themselves on the bubble for the NCAA tournament will meet for the first time this season when the Florida Gators head to Rupp Arena on Saturday night to face off with the Kentucky Wildcats.

Florida has greatly improved in recent SEC play, winning six of its last seven conference games, and is coming off a big upset win over Tennessee. The Gators sit at 13-9 overall and 6-3 in SEC play. Kentucky has won five consecutive conference games since its embarrassing loss to South Carolina. The Wildcats sit at 15-7 overall and 6-3 in SEC play.

Which hot SEC team will come out on top in this Saturday primetime event? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Florida vs. Kentucky on Saturday, February 4 to find out.

Florida vs Kentucky best odds

Florida vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The Gators looked dead in the water just a few weeks ago, but have sprung to life with some key victories in SEC play. They have defeated fellow bubble contenders Missouri and Mississippi State to go along with their upset over Top-5 Tennessee. The Gators now find themselves ranked 41st in the NET rankings and are back in the hunt for an NCAA tournament bid.

Their defense is a big reason for their recent surge. Florida has allowed 70 points only once in its last 12 games and has held five of those 12 opponents under 60 points. The Gators allow an average of 64.5 points per game, which ranks 49th in the country. They also only allow opponents to shoot 39.1% from the floor, which ranks 11th in the nation.

They rely heavily on fifth-year senior big man Colin Castleton, who leads the team averaging 15.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game. Last season in his two games against Kentucky, Castleton averaged 20.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 0.5 blocks. However, Oscar Tshiebwe certainly got the best of him, logging 27.0 points, 17.0 rebounds, 3.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks.

Oscar may not be having the same National Player of the Year type season this year, but he is still having a phenomenal year by normal standards. He’s averaging 13.6 rebounds per game — which leads the nation — and 16.5 points per contest. Recently, he has been getting a ton of help from his teammates, which has sparked a turnaround this season for the Cats. 

Kentucky has won six consecutive conference games, including an upset win at Tennessee and a home win over fellow bubble contender Texas A&M, who defeated these Gators twice already this season. The Wildcats now sit at 31 in the NET rankings and have scored at least 68 points in five consecutive games. 

The Gators allow 33.7 rebounds per game, which ranks 20th in the country. Kentucky averages 36.1 rebounds (21st in the nation) and allow 27.3 rebounds (19th in the nation) per contest. Tshiebwe will once again dominate the glass against Castleton and the Gators and the Wildcats will get another huge home win to get back inside the NCAA tournament bubble.

My best bet: Kentucky -4.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Florida vs Kentucky spread analysis

Since John Calipari has switched up the lineup, the Wildcats have surged offensively and turned the season around. The lineup that centers around Tshiebwe, Cason Wallace, Jacob Toppin, Antonio Reeves, and CJ Fredrick has thrived in the halfcourt. In the last five games, these five players alone have averaged a combined 65.8 points per game. 

The Wildcats have covered five of their last six games, including four games as favorites. Wallace is considered questionable with a leg injury and he missed the last game at Mississippi. However, he likely would have played in that game if the opponent was of higher quality, and he’s likely to play on Saturday night. 

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning straight-up record. The favorite is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two programs. Kentucky is likely to continue these trends at home on Saturday night. 

With Wallace back in the lineup and the proper use of Sahvir Wheeler off the bench, the Wildcats should be able to break down this impressive Gators defense. Add in the fact that they will dominate the glass and it will be a tough night for Florida on the road. Kentucky could win this one by double digits. 

Florida vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

If this game was played in early January, I would think the Under would be a mortal lock. However, Kentucky has figured out its offense and has struggled in man-to-man defense. The Over is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven home games for Kentucky and 4-1 in its last five games overall. 

Only two Kentucky games in the previous seven have been Under 140 total points. This total is going to be well below that number and Florida has shown they can occasionally play high-scoring games. The Gators played in a 157-point game with Georgia and a 141-point game against South Carolina. 

I like Kentucky to find themselves right around the 70-point mark by the end of this game. Unless the Gators get completely shut down, this total is a little low for the way Kentucky games have played recently. I would lean towards the Over. 

Florida vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Wildcats’ last four home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Kentucky.

Florida vs Kentucky game info

Florida vs Kentucky key injuries

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