Alabama vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tested Spartans Prove Too Tough

The No. 18 Alabama Crimson Tide will try to move to 5-0 on the year when they take on the No. 12 Michigan State Spartans in Portland on Friday night.

Alabama and Michigan State are facing off in a quarterfinal matchup of the Phil Knight Invitational. It’s the first real test for the Crimson Tide, who have dominated their mid-major opposition so far this year.

The step up in competition will give us a better picture of what kind of team the Tide are this year. We’ll figure out if they rise to the occasion against the Spartans in our college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Michigan State on Thanksgiving.

Alabama vs Michigan State best odds

Alabama vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Michigan State (3-1) has already faced plenty of elite competition this year. The Spartans dropped a 64-63 thriller to the Gonzaga Bulldogs before beating the Kentucky Wildcats in double overtime and holding off the Villanova Wildcats by two last Friday. 

That’s a marked difference in the level of competition compared to how Alabama (4-0) has started the year. The Crimson Tide have faced off against four lightly regarded teams, with the Liberty Flames – which Alabama beat 95-59 — perhaps the biggest name among them.

Yet it hasn’t been entirely smooth sailing for the Tide. Alabama has never been in danger of losing a game, but the South Alabama Jaguars kept it close against them last week, losing 65-55 and playing evenly with the Crimson Tide in the second half.

The Spartans have several players who can make a difference in any given game, and who have already shown they can score against the best teams in the country. Senior forward Joey Hauser is leading the team with 14 ppg, but it could be fellow senior Tyson Walker who emerges as the No. 1 option in the Michigan State offense. The guard scored 22 in the win over Villanova, a season-high for Walker.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s offense will revolve around freshman forward Brandon Miller, who is already lighting up the stat sheet early in his collegiate career. Miller is averaging 20.3 points and 9.3 rebounds on the year, but has yet to face the level of competition he’ll see on Thursday.

That’s going to be a theme throughout this analysis, and for good reason. Not only has Alabama been able to look good because of the low level of competition it has played against, but it also hasn’t had to deal with any pressure situations late in the game. 

That puts the Crimson Tide at a significant disadvantage tonight. Alabama is a good team that will be among the favorites to win the SEC title this year — and they will be a dangerous team in March — but Michigan State has just as much talent, and has already fended off much better teams. 

Alabama is the favorite tonight, and if they were playing at home, I’d think that was justified. In a neutral-site game, however, I think this is Michigan State’s game to lose. I’m not only backing the Spartans, I’m doing it on the moneyline with the expectation that they grind out another tight win against a quality opponent.

My best bet: Michigan State moneyline (+160 at DraftKings)

Alabama vs Michigan State spread analysis

Alabama opened tonight’s game as a 2.5-point favorite. That number has moved up a bit, with Michigan State +4 now the main line at most books. 

While I like the Spartans to win this game outright, there is some logic behind this line movement. Michigan State guard Jaden Akins is questionable for Thursday night after tweaking his foot against Villanova.

Akins has had trouble with his foot before, and while Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says this isn’t a serious reinjury, it could keep him out tonight.

Akins is an important part of the Michigan State rotation. He’s essentially the sixth man, averaging over 20 minutes a game so far this year. However, this is more of a depth problem than a talent issue.

The Spartans already run Tyson Walker out for almost the entire game every night, and point guard A.J. Hoggard will likely see a few more minutes to cover for Akins’ absence.

In my best bet analysis above, I laid out the reasons why Michigan State should win tonight. However, I think taking the Spartans and the points is also an excellent choice. Given what we’ve seen this year, we can bet that they’ll play another tight game wire-to-wire with the Crimson Tide.

If you’re not as convinced as I am that they’ll put out the victory, then getting four points gives you a nice cushion considering this squad only lost by one to Gonzaga earlier this year.

Alabama vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis

College basketball odds opened tonight’s total at 144.5, and most sites are still offering a main line Over/Under of 145.5 as of noon on Thursday.

Even though both teams are dealing with some injuries for this Thanksgiving matchup, these are still two lineups that can score in bunches. Alabama is averaging 84.8 points per game, albeit against weaker competition than they’ll see tonight. 

Meanwhile, Michigan State has been able to put up 73.8 ppg even against some of the best teams in the country. However, they’ve only played one game that has gone Over tonight’s total, and that was a double-overtime encounter with Kentucky.

The Crimson Tide love to shoot the ball from behind the arc. Alabama has attempted more than 32 threes per game this year, and though they are hitting a modest 33.6% of those shots, they still add up quickly. Notably, Miller is shooting 51.7% from deep this year, with second-leading scorer Mark Sears also hitting at a 41.7% clip. 

Michigan State should be able to slow down this barrage a bit, presenting a much more difficult defensive challenge for Alabama than the Crimson Tide’s earlier opponents.

Even against weaker opposition, Alabama has been held to 65 by South Alabama and 75 by Longwood, so there’s no reason to assume this will turn into a wild shootout. The Under is the smart play here.

Alabama vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Michigan State is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight neutral site games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Michigan State.

Alabama vs Michigan State game info

MORE CBB FREE PICKS

Pages related to this topic