NBA regular-season win totals are becoming all the rage with the preseason wrapped up and the season officially kicking off on October 18.
While the Boston Celtics have had their preseason projections tapered a bit both here and the NBA championship odds following Ime Udoka's surprising suspension, they still sit with the highest win total Over/Under for 2022-23.
Let's see where each team's win total stands on the doorstep of the new campaign.
NBA win total odds
|Golden State Warriors||51.5|
|Los Angeles Clippers||52.5|
|Los Angeles Lakers||45.5|
|New Orleans Pelicans||44.5|
|New York Knicks||38.5|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||23.5|
|Portland Trail Blazers||39.5|
|San Antonio Spurs||22.5|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of October 17, 2022.
NBA most projected wins in 2022-23
Boston Celtics (53.5)
Despite their loss in this year's NBA Finals and Udoka's sudden suspension, there's a lot to love about the state of the Boston Celtics. Their talented core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams III, and Al Horford remains intact while the front office dealt with the only other significant hole in the roster — a true point guard — with the acquisition of Malcolm Brogdon from the Indiana Pacers.
Boston's win total currently sits at a league-high 53.5. If the second half of last year's regular season in addition to its deep playoff run is any indication, this team could very well land in the high-50s with good health.
But a deeper East looms, with fewer gimmes on a schedule where the Celtics are now a matchup every opponent will bring their A-game for.
Los Angeles Clippers (52.5)
Also sitting with a 52.5-win total are the Los Angeles Clippers, who will be desperate to get back into championship contention with a deep (and very expensive) roster in 2022-23. The squad is headlined by former All-NBAers Kawhi Leonard (who hasn't played since 2020-21) and Paul George, with its rotation being filled out by arguably the deepest bench in the entire league.
So, the talent is there but so is heavy injury risk.
Milwaukee Bucks (52.5)
Next up are the NBA champions from two years ago, the Milwaukee Bucks, on the board at 52.5 wins. Despite a downtick in regular season success a year ago, the Bucks appeared ready to win another championship before a Khris Middleton injury held them back in their second-round series with the Celtics. However, their core of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Middleton are more than capable of getting back into the mid-50s.
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NBA fewest projected wins in 2022-23
San Antonio Spurs (22.5)
On the other end of the spectrum, we have a handful of teams with win totals sitting in the mid-20s, with the lowest being the San Antonio Spurs at 22.5.
After shipping Dejounte Murray away to the Atlanta Hawks for Danillo Gallinari (now on the Celtics) and three first-round draft picks, the Spurs are left with just Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Doug McDermott, and Josh Richardson, a roster that should make for one of the league's elite bottom-feeders.
Houston Rockets (23.5)
The Rockets will be predictably weak this season, still ushering in a youth movement that's yet to cut its teeth in the NBA. While Jalen Green's late-season breakout was encouraging, this squad is still two years away from being two years away, and its success will be judged in player upside rather than the win-loss column.
Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5)
After drafting forward Chet Holmgren second overall, OKC had hope of at least being entertaining while losing. Now, Holmgren will miss the duration of what would have been his rookie season due to a foot injury. As such, the Thunder's projected win total dropped from 26.5 to 23.5.
Top 5 NBA single-season win-loss records
|2015-16||Golden State Warriors||73-9||Lost NBA Finals|
|1995-96||Chicago Bulls||72-10||Won NBA Finals|
|1971-72||Los Angeles Lakers||69-13||Won NBA Finals|
|1996-97||Chicago Bulls||69-13||Won NBA Finals|
|1966-67||Philadelphia 76ers||68-13||Won NBA Finals|
The Golden State Warriors made history twice during the 2015-16 season when they became the first team to win 73 regular season games and the first team to lose an NBA Finals after taking a 3-1 lead.
How to Bet NBA Regular Season Win Totals
Season win totals are self-explanatory: betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.
Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel and a variety of intangible factors — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total includes regular-season games only.
For example, if oddsmakers calculate the Charlotte Hornets to win around 35 games this upcoming season, they would set the Over/Under at 35.5. Thus, if Charlotte wins 35 or fewer games, they cash the Under. If Charlotte wins 36 or more games in the given season, they cash the Over.
Over 35.5 wins (-110)
Under 35.5 wins (-110)
On top of the season win total itself, some oddsmakers may set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.
Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.